比特币的下降趋势可能持续时间比预期的更长

一些分析师认为，比特币的下降趋势可能会持续时间比预期的要长。

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin’s downward trend could persist for longer than anticipated, especially considering recent macroeconomic developments.

一些分析人士认为，比特币的下降趋势可能会持续时间比预期的要长，尤其是考虑到最近的宏观经济发展。

According to Quinn Thompson, head of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, Bitcoin’s decline won’t be sudden but rather a gradual slide that might take the flagship cryptocurrency below $60,000 by the end of the year. Unlike previous instances of sharp crashes and rallies, Thompson expects a slow grind that could test investors’ resilience.

根据加密对冲基金Lekker Capital负责人奎因·汤普森（Quinn Thompson）的说法，比特币的下降不会是突然的，而是逐渐滑动，可能会在年底之前将旗舰加密货币低于60,000美元。与以前的崩溃和集会的情况不同，汤普森预计会很慢，可以测试投资者的韧性。

While some market voices have become more optimistic recently, specifically highlighting the Trump administration’s initiative to create a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund and a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Thompson remains pessimistic. He views the hype surrounding these projects as nothing more than fleeting news without real impact.

尽管某些市场声音最近变得更加乐观，特别是强调了特朗普政府创建美国主权财富基金和战略比特币储备金的倡议，但汤普森仍然是悲观的。他认为围绕这​​些项目的炒作无非是没有真正影响的新闻。

Moreover, Thompson isn’t convinced by MicroStrategy’s continued Bitcoin acquisitions, deeming them an outlier rather than a sign of strong market demand.

此外，汤普森（Thompson）并不相信MicroStrategy继续进行比特币的收购，认为它们是异常值的，而不是强劲的市场需求迹象。

The essence of Thompson’s bearish outlook lies in the current economic environment, recently touched upon by Elon Musk, who's also known for his involvement with SpaceX and Tesla.

汤普森（Thompson）看跌前景的本质在于当前的经济环境，最近由埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）谈到，他也因参与SpaceX和Tesla而闻名。

One major factor is the government’s push to reduce spending, spearheaded by the Department of Government Productivity (DOGE). With plans to cut the federal budget by up to $1 trillion and lay off 500,000 government employees, the administration aims to decrease the deficit and stimulate private-sector hiring.

一个主要因素是政府降低支出的推动，由政府生产力（Doge）领导。随着计划将联邦预算减少到1万亿美元并减少50万政府雇员，政府旨在减少赤字并刺激私营部门的招聘。

While the final spending cuts might be less severe than planned, with final appropriations bills still pending in Congress, Thompson believes this move will slow economic growth and dampen consumer confidence.

虽然最终的支出削减可能比计划的不太严重，但在国会仍在持有的最终拨款法案中，汤普森认为，这一举动将减缓经济增长并削弱消费者的信心。

Another aspect that worries Thompson is the potential impact of stricter immigration policies, which might lead to labor shortages and increased wage pressure. As pointed out by former White House economic adviser Stephen Fuller, when the labor market tightens, businesses may struggle to maintain profitability, which could ripple through the economy and affect investment sentiment.

担心汤普森的另一个方面是更严格的移民政策的潜在影响，这可能导致劳动力短缺并增加工资压力。正如前白宫经济顾问史蒂芬·富勒（Stephen Fuller）指出的那样，当劳动力市场收紧时，企业可能难以维持盈利能力，这可能会在经济中蔓延并影响投资情绪。

Furthermore, uncertainty around tariffs remains a sticking point. The administration’s inconsistent stance on trade has left businesses hesitant to invest, as they can’t predict future costs with confidence.

此外，关税周围的不确定性仍然是一个引人注目的点。政府对贸易的不一致立场使企业犹豫不决，因为他们无法充满信心地预测未来的成本。

This kind of unpredictability makes it difficult for companies to plan ahead, leading to a cautious approach in both hiring and expansion.

这种不可预测的性使公司很难提前计划，从而在招聘和扩张方面采取了谨慎的态度。

On the monetary policy side, despite the Fed’s recent surprise rate cut, Thompson expects further reductions to be cautious and spaced out, as the central bank remains focused on inflation control. The coordination between the Fed, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and President Trump signals a careful approach that might not offer the quick relief markets are hoping for.

在货币政策方面，尽管美联储最近削减了惊喜，但汤普森希望进一步的减少谨慎和间隔，因为中央银行仍然专注于通货膨胀控制。美联储，财政部长Bessent和特朗普总统之间的协调表明一种谨慎的方法，可能无法提供快速救济市场所希望的。

In conclusion, Thompson sees these combined economic pressures as a significant challenge for Bitcoin and other risky assets. He also notes that the administration seems more focused on maintaining fiscal discipline than on avoiding a recession, suggesting that the current strategy might not change unless economic conditions worsen dramatically.

总之，汤普森认为这些综合经济压力是对比特币和其他风险资产的重大挑战。他还指出，政府似乎更专注于维持财政纪律，而不是避免经济衰退，这表明除非经济状况急剧恶化，否则当前的战略可能不会改变。

With midterm elections looming in 2026, Thompson doesn’t rule out potential policy shifts if the economic pain becomes too politically costly. However, he remains skeptical that meaningful changes will happen soon, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to continued downward pressure.

随着2026年中期选举的临近，汤普森不排除如果经济痛苦在政治上太昂贵，则可能会发生可能的政策转变。但是，他仍然对有意义的变化很快发生，使比特币容易受到持续向下压力的影响。