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加密貨幣新聞文章
比特幣似乎正處於十字路口。隨著加密貨幣價格接近 7 萬美元,投機狂潮正在暗處發展。這種現像很可能在短期內對它不利。隨著期貨市場持倉量的激增,BTC處於高風險境地。問題是:當前的看漲動能能否抵禦這種猖獗的投機行為?
2024/10/22 18:10
10 月 21 日,比特幣突破了 69,500 美元的大關,這是一個令人興奮的里程碑。然而,在如此驚人的上漲背後,質疑聲也開始出現。
Bitcoin seemed to be at a crossroads on October 21. As the price of the leading cryptocurrency approached the $70,000 threshold, a speculative frenzy was developing in the shadows—a phenomenon that could turn against BTC in the short term.
10 月 21 日,比特幣似乎正處於十字路口。
With the explosion of open interest in the futures markets, BTC was indeed in a high-risk situation. The question was whether the current bullish momentum would hold up against this rampant speculation.
隨著期貨市場持倉量的激增,BTC確實處於高風險的境地。問題是當前的看漲勢頭能否抵禦這種猖獗的投機行為。
A tense rise in the price of bitcoin
比特幣價格緊張上漲
Bitcoin crossed the threshold of $69,500 on October 21, a new milestone that was reached with euphoria. However, behind this spectacular rise, doubts began to emerge.
10 月 21 日,比特幣突破了 69,500 美元的大關,這是一個令人興奮的新里程碑。然而,在如此驚人的上漲背後,質疑也開始出現。
This level had not been reached for months, and market participants were more nervous than ever. The political context, particularly the potential impact of the U.S. elections, seemed to play a major role. Some analysts even mentioned a correlation between the rise of bitcoin and Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election.
這一水平已經好幾個月沒有達到了,市場參與者比以往任何時候都更加緊張。政治背景,特別是美國大選的潛在影響,似乎扮演了重要角色。一些分析師甚至提到比特幣的崛起與唐納德·川普贏得總統選舉的機會之間存在相關性。
Be careful, this skyrocketing price was not without risk. Indeed, open interest (OI) on futures contracts reached historic highs.
請注意,如此暴漲的價格並非沒有風險。事實上,期貨合約的未平倉合約(OI)達到了歷史新高。
However, such an increase in open positions was not always synonymous with stability for bitcoin. If traders’ speculations did not materialize, a brutal correction could hit the market, reversing the current bullish momentum.
然而,未平倉部位的增加並不總是比特幣穩定的代名詞。如果交易員的猜測沒有成為現實,市場可能會遭遇殘酷的調整,扭轉當前的看漲勢頭。
The snowball effect of open interest
未平倉合約的滾雪球效應
As indicated in the report, the explosion of open interest was not just a simple technical detail.
正如報告所指出的,未平倉合約的爆炸性增長不僅僅是一個簡單的技術細節。
In theory, high OI reflected growing optimism, but here, it could provoke an opposite effect. If the spot market did not follow the expected bullish momentum, we could witness a bitcoin correction of unexpected violence.
理論上,高 OI 反映了樂觀情緒的成長,但在這裡,它可能會引發相反的效果。如果現貨市場沒有遵循預期的看漲勢頭,我們可能會見證比特幣意外的暴力調整。
The market then became vulnerable to what was called a “short squeeze,” where open positions were liquidated in cascade, increasing volatility.
隨後,市場變得容易受到所謂的「空頭擠壓」的影響,即未平倉頭寸被級聯清算,從而加劇了波動性。
The most worrying thing was that the fundamentals seemed to be eclipsed by this speculation. The more the market inflated with unfulfilled promises, the more severe the crash could be.
最令人擔憂的是,基本面似乎因這種猜測而黯然失色。市場因未兌現的承諾而膨脹得越多,崩盤可能就越嚴重。
The coming days would therefore be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin would break through this resistance or if it would experience a return to reality that could shake the entire market. Some still hoped to see bitcoin at $80,000.
因此,未來幾天將決定比特幣是否會突破這種阻力,或者是否會回歸現實,從而撼動整個市場。有些人仍然希望看到比特幣價格達到 80,000 美元。
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Fascinated by bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has been continuously documenting himself on the subject. While his first interest was in trading, he now actively tries to apprehend all the advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As a writer, he aspires to permanently provide high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
自 2017 年以來,Evariste 對比特幣著迷,一直在不斷記錄自己關於這個主題的內容。雖然他的首要興趣是交易,但他現在積極嘗試了解以加密貨幣為中心的所有進步。作為一名作家,他渴望永久提供反映整個行業狀況的高品質作品。
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