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加密货币新闻
比特币似乎正处于十字路口。随着加密货币价格接近 70,000 美元,投机狂潮正在暗处发展。这种现象很可能在短期内对它不利。随着期货市场持仓量的激增,BTC处于高风险境地。问题是:当前的看涨势头能否抵御这种猖獗的投机行为?
2024/10/22 18:10
10 月 21 日,比特币突破了 69,500 美元的大关,这是一个令人兴奋的里程碑。然而,在如此惊人的上涨背后,质疑声也开始出现。
Bitcoin seemed to be at a crossroads on October 21. As the price of the leading cryptocurrency approached the $70,000 threshold, a speculative frenzy was developing in the shadows—a phenomenon that could turn against BTC in the short term.
10 月 21 日,比特币似乎正处于十字路口。随着主要加密货币的价格接近 70,000 美元的门槛,投机狂潮正在暗中发展,这种现象可能会在短期内对 BTC 不利。
With the explosion of open interest in the futures markets, BTC was indeed in a high-risk situation. The question was whether the current bullish momentum would hold up against this rampant speculation.
随着期货市场持仓量的激增,BTC确实处于高风险的境地。问题是当前的看涨势头能否抵御这种猖獗的投机行为。
A tense rise in the price of bitcoin
比特币价格紧张上涨
Bitcoin crossed the threshold of $69,500 on October 21, a new milestone that was reached with euphoria. However, behind this spectacular rise, doubts began to emerge.
10 月 21 日,比特币突破了 69,500 美元的大关,这是一个令人兴奋的新里程碑。然而,在如此惊人的上涨背后,质疑也开始出现。
This level had not been reached for months, and market participants were more nervous than ever. The political context, particularly the potential impact of the U.S. elections, seemed to play a major role. Some analysts even mentioned a correlation between the rise of bitcoin and Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election.
这一水平已经好几个月没有达到了,市场参与者比以往任何时候都更加紧张。政治背景,特别是美国大选的潜在影响,似乎发挥了重要作用。一些分析师甚至提到比特币的崛起与唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统选举的机会之间存在相关性。
Be careful, this skyrocketing price was not without risk. Indeed, open interest (OI) on futures contracts reached historic highs.
请注意,如此暴涨的价格并非没有风险。事实上,期货合约的未平仓合约(OI)达到了历史新高。
However, such an increase in open positions was not always synonymous with stability for bitcoin. If traders’ speculations did not materialize, a brutal correction could hit the market, reversing the current bullish momentum.
然而,未平仓头寸的增加并不总是比特币稳定的代名词。如果交易员的猜测没有成为现实,市场可能会遭遇残酷的调整,扭转当前的看涨势头。
The snowball effect of open interest
未平仓合约的滚雪球效应
As indicated in the report, the explosion of open interest was not just a simple technical detail.
正如报告所指出的,未平仓合约的爆炸性增长不仅仅是一个简单的技术细节。
In theory, high OI reflected growing optimism, but here, it could provoke an opposite effect. If the spot market did not follow the expected bullish momentum, we could witness a bitcoin correction of unexpected violence.
理论上,高 OI 反映了乐观情绪的增长,但在这里,它可能会引发相反的效果。如果现货市场没有遵循预期的看涨势头,我们可能会见证比特币意外的暴力调整。
The market then became vulnerable to what was called a “short squeeze,” where open positions were liquidated in cascade, increasing volatility.
随后,市场变得容易受到所谓的“空头挤压”的影响,即未平仓头寸被级联清算,从而加剧了波动性。
The most worrying thing was that the fundamentals seemed to be eclipsed by this speculation. The more the market inflated with unfulfilled promises, the more severe the crash could be.
最令人担忧的是,基本面似乎因这种猜测而黯然失色。市场因未兑现的承诺而膨胀得越多,崩盘可能就越严重。
The coming days would therefore be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin would break through this resistance or if it would experience a return to reality that could shake the entire market. Some still hoped to see bitcoin at $80,000.
因此,未来几天将决定比特币是否会突破这一阻力,或者是否会回归现实,从而撼动整个市场。一些人仍然希望看到比特币价格达到 80,000 美元。
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Fascinated by bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has been continuously documenting himself on the subject. While his first interest was in trading, he now actively tries to apprehend all the advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As a writer, he aspires to permanently provide high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
自 2017 年以来,Evariste 对比特币着迷,一直在不断记录自己关于这个主题的内容。虽然他的首要兴趣是交易,但他现在积极尝试了解以加密货币为中心的所有进步。作为一名作家,他渴望永久提供反映整个行业状况的高质量作品。
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