比特幣聖誕節：回顧過去的趨勢和 2024 年的預測

隨著假期的臨近，比特幣愛好者和加密貨幣投資者可能想知道該行業在聖誕節期間的表現如何。本文探討歷史數據，以了解比特幣在 12 月的表現

Bitcoin’s performance during Christmas has varied over the years, reflecting the broader market cycle. In early years, Bitcoin quietly accumulated value during the holiday season. However, during bull markets, such as 2020 and 2017, Bitcoin has seen substantial gains, rising by 50% and 40%, respectively. Conversely, during bear markets or post-cycle peaks, such as 2018 and 2021, Bitcoin has experienced corrections, declining by 6% and 19%, respectively. These trends highlight Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, making the holiday season both opportune and reflective for investors.

多年來，比特幣在聖誕節期間的表現各不相同，反映了更廣泛的市場週期。早年，比特幣在節日期間悄悄增值。然而，在多頭市場期間，例如2020年和2017年，比特幣出現了大幅上漲，分別上漲了50%和40%。相反，在熊市或後週期高峰期間，例如 2018 年和 2021 年，比特幣經歷了調整，分別下跌了 6% 和 19%。這些趨勢凸顯了比特幣的周期性，使假期對投資者來說既是時機又是反思的時機。

Bitcoin and U.S. Election Years: A Symphony of Halving Cycles and Political Turmoil Shaping Market Movements

比特幣與美國大選年：減半週期與政治動盪塑造市場趨勢的交響樂

United States presidential election years are inherently dramatic, and for Bitcoin, they have often coincided with pivotal market moments. Since Bitcoin’s inception, every US presidential election (2012, 2016, and 2020) has also been a pre-halving year. Understanding Bitcoin’s price behavior during these important periods is essential for investors and traders alike.

美國總統選舉年本質上是戲劇性的，對於比特幣來說，它們往往與關鍵的市場時刻同時發生。自比特幣誕生以來，每次美國總統大選（2012年、2016年和2020年）也是減半前的一年。了解比特幣在這些重要時期的價格行為對於投資者和交易者來說至關重要。

A combination of a Bitcoin halving and an election cycle has historically created a fertile ground for large price moves. During such times, Bitcoin often stands out as a scarce asset and a potential hedge against inflation. Election years are synonymous with heightened uncertainty, providing ideal conditions for Bitcoin to rally and secure its position in the global spotlight once clarity over the election winner is confirmed.

歷史上，比特幣減半和選舉週期的結合為價格大幅波動創造了沃土。在這樣的時期，比特幣往往作為一種稀缺資產和潛在的通膨對沖工具而脫穎而出。選舉年是不確定性加劇的代名詞，這為比特幣反彈提供了理想的條件，並在選舉獲勝者確定後確保其在全球聚光燈下的地位。

Bitcoin in 2012: A Quiet Christmas That Led to Explosive Rallies

2012 年的比特幣：安靜的聖誕節導致爆炸性反彈

The first-ever halving in November 2012 triggered a massive shift in Bitcoin’s price behaviour. Pre-halving, Bitcoin was consolidating around $10–$12, showing little immediate reaction to the halving itself.

2012 年 11 月的第一次減半引發了比特幣價格行為的巨大轉變。減半前，比特幣在 10 至 12 美元左右盤整，對減半本身沒有什麼立即反應。

However, by December, the market had started building momentum, with Bitcoin rising steadily during the holiday season approximately by 10% as shown in the image below.

然而，到了 12 月，市場開始形成勢頭，比特幣在假期期間穩步上漲約 10%，如下圖所示。

Past December Bitcoin embarked on an extraordinary rally, hitting an all-time high of $266 by April 2013.

去年 12 月，比特幣開始了非凡的上漲，到 2013 年 4 月達到了 266 美元的歷史新高。

The journey from the halving to the peak took 132 days, with the price increasing by a large 2,135%. Christmas of 2012 symbolized early optimism of this young asset class, which was just beginning to show its potential for parabolic growth.

從減半到見頂，歷時132天，價格漲幅高達2135%。 2012 年聖誕節象徵著這個年輕資產類別的早期樂觀情緒，這個類別剛開始展現其拋物線式成長的潛力。

Bitcoin in 2016: A Gradual Build Toward the Next Christmas High

2016 年比特幣：逐步邁向下一個聖誕節高點

Rewinding back to 2016, Bitcoin had matured but still held onto its signature post-halving behavior. Following the July halving, Bitcoin traded in a stable range of $600–$700 for several months. However, as the year progressed, the market began heating up.

時間回到 2016 年，比特幣已經成熟，但仍保持其標誌性的減半行為。 7 月減半後，比特幣交易價格連續幾個月穩定在 600 至 700 美元之間。然而，隨著時間的推移，市場開始升溫。

By December 2016, Bitcoin broke out, rallying over 50% into the new year. The election in November seemed to add fuel to this momentum, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s climb to its then all-time high of $20,000 in December 2017.

到 2016 年 12 月，比特幣爆發，進入新的一年上漲了 50% 以上。 11 月的選舉似乎加劇了這一勢頭，為比特幣在 2017 年 12 月攀升至 20,000 美元的歷史高點奠定了基礎。

This bull market, spanning 522 days post-halving, reflected the maturing adoption cycle of Bitcoin and the increasing influence of institutional participants.

減半後持續522天的多頭市場反映了比特幣採用週期的成熟和機構參與者影響力的不斷增強。

Christmas in 2016 marked the moment when Bitcoin began transitioning from a niche investment into a mainstream asset, paving the way for the 2017 bull run. In 2016, Bitcoin rallied an impressive 80%.

2016 年的聖誕節標誌著比特幣開始從利基投資轉變為主流資產的時刻，為 2017 年的多頭市場鋪平了道路。 2016 年，比特幣上漲了 80%，令人印象深刻。

Bitcoin in 2020: A Positive Christmas and Era of Institutional Adoption

2020 年的比特幣：積極的聖誕節和機構採用的時代

The 2020 halving once again demonstrated the power of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, but this time it played out in a much larger, more liquid market.

2020 年的減半再次證明了比特幣供應動態的力量，但這次它是在一個更大、流動性更強的市場中發揮作用的。

Following the May halving, Bitcoin consolidated near $8,000–$10,000 for several months, with price action remaining relatively muted. However, as the year-end approached, things began to accelerate.

5 月減半後，比特幣連續幾個月在 8,000 至 10,000 美元附近盤整，價格走勢相對平靜。然而，隨著年底的臨近，事情開始加速。

The US election in November was the catalyst for a sharp 80% rally in the weeks leading up to Christmas illustrated below.

11 月的美國大選是聖誕節前幾週股價大幅上漲 80% 的催化劑，如下圖所示。

By the holiday season, Bitcoin was breaking new highs near $25,000, setting the stage for an explosive move to $64,000 by April 2021.

到假期季節，比特幣突破了接近 25,000 美元的新高，為 2021 年 4 月爆炸性上漲至 64,000 美元奠定了基礎。

The 2020 Christmas rally was symbolic of a new era, as institutional players like MicroStrategy and Tesla entered the market, signaling Bitcoin’s start into a globally recognized store-of-value for companies and individuals wishing to preserve capital.

2020 年聖誕漲勢象徵著一個新時代，像 MicroStrategy 和特斯拉這樣的機構參與者進入市場，標誌著比特幣開始成為全球公認的希望保存資本的公司和個人的價值儲存手段。

The year-end holidays became synonymous with exuberance as Bitcoin made its case as digital gold.

隨著比特幣成為數位黃金，年底假期成為繁榮的代名詞。

Bitcoin in 2024: A Christmas Countdown Like No Other

2024 年的比特幣：與眾不同的聖誕節倒數計時

In 2024, Bitcoin finds itself at another interesting moment. With the hal

2024 年，比特幣發現自己處於另一個有趣的時刻。與哈爾