比特币圣诞节：回顾过去的趋势和 2024 年的预测

随着假期的临近，比特币爱好者和加密货币投资者可能想知道该行业在圣诞节期间的表现如何。本文探讨历史数据，以了解比特币在 12 月份的表现

Bitcoin’s performance during Christmas has varied over the years, reflecting the broader market cycle. In early years, Bitcoin quietly accumulated value during the holiday season. However, during bull markets, such as 2020 and 2017, Bitcoin has seen substantial gains, rising by 50% and 40%, respectively. Conversely, during bear markets or post-cycle peaks, such as 2018 and 2021, Bitcoin has experienced corrections, declining by 6% and 19%, respectively. These trends highlight Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, making the holiday season both opportune and reflective for investors.

多年来，比特币在圣诞节期间的表现各不相同，反映了更广泛的市场周期。早年，比特币在节日期间悄然增值。然而，在牛市期间，例如2020年和2017年，比特币出现了大幅上涨，分别上涨了50%和40%。相反，在熊市或后周期峰值期间，例如 2018 年和 2021 年，比特币经历了调整，分别下跌了 6% 和 19%。这些趋势凸显了比特币的周期性，使假期对于投资者来说既是时机又是反思的时机。

Bitcoin and U.S. Election Years: A Symphony of Halving Cycles and Political Turmoil Shaping Market Movements

比特币和美国大选年：减半周期和政治动荡塑造市场走势的交响曲

United States presidential election years are inherently dramatic, and for Bitcoin, they have often coincided with pivotal market moments. Since Bitcoin’s inception, every US presidential election (2012, 2016, and 2020) has also been a pre-halving year. Understanding Bitcoin’s price behavior during these important periods is essential for investors and traders alike.

美国总统选举年本质上是戏剧性的，对于比特币来说，它们往往与关键的市场时刻同时发生。自比特币诞生以来，每次美国总统选举（2012年、2016年和2020年）也是减半前的一年。了解比特币在这些重要时期的价格行为对于投资者和交易者来说至关重要。

A combination of a Bitcoin halving and an election cycle has historically created a fertile ground for large price moves. During such times, Bitcoin often stands out as a scarce asset and a potential hedge against inflation. Election years are synonymous with heightened uncertainty, providing ideal conditions for Bitcoin to rally and secure its position in the global spotlight once clarity over the election winner is confirmed.

历史上，比特币减半和选举周期的结合为价格大幅波动创造了沃土。在这样的时期，比特币往往作为一种稀缺资产和潜在的通胀对冲工具而脱颖而出。选举年是不确定性加剧的代名词，这为比特币反弹提供了理想的条件，并在选举获胜者确定后确保其在全球聚光灯下的地位。

Bitcoin in 2012: A Quiet Christmas That Led to Explosive Rallies

2012 年的比特币：安静的圣诞节导致爆炸性反弹

The first-ever halving in November 2012 triggered a massive shift in Bitcoin’s price behaviour. Pre-halving, Bitcoin was consolidating around $10–$12, showing little immediate reaction to the halving itself.

2012 年 11 月的第一次减半引发了比特币价格行为的巨大转变。减半前，比特币在 10 至 12 美元左右盘整，对减半本身没有什么立即反应。

However, by December, the market had started building momentum, with Bitcoin rising steadily during the holiday season approximately by 10% as shown in the image below.

然而，到了 12 月，市场开始形成势头，比特币在假期期间稳步上涨约 10%，如下图所示。

Past December Bitcoin embarked on an extraordinary rally, hitting an all-time high of $266 by April 2013.

去年 12 月，比特币开始了非凡的上涨，到 2013 年 4 月达到了 266 美元的历史新高。

The journey from the halving to the peak took 132 days, with the price increasing by a large 2,135%. Christmas of 2012 symbolized early optimism of this young asset class, which was just beginning to show its potential for parabolic growth.

从减半到见顶，历时132天，价格涨幅高达2135%。 2012 年圣诞节象征着这一年轻资产类别的早期乐观情绪，该类别刚刚开始展现其抛物线式增长的潜力。

Bitcoin in 2016: A Gradual Build Toward the Next Christmas High

2016 年比特币：逐步迈向下一个圣诞节高点

Rewinding back to 2016, Bitcoin had matured but still held onto its signature post-halving behavior. Following the July halving, Bitcoin traded in a stable range of $600–$700 for several months. However, as the year progressed, the market began heating up.

时间回到 2016 年，比特币已经成熟，但仍然保持着其标志性的减半行为。 7 月减半后，比特币交易价格连续几个月稳定在 600 至 700 美元之间。然而，随着时间的推移，市场开始升温。

By December 2016, Bitcoin broke out, rallying over 50% into the new year. The election in November seemed to add fuel to this momentum, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s climb to its then all-time high of $20,000 in December 2017.

到 2016 年 12 月，比特币爆发，进入新的一年上涨了 50% 以上。 11 月的选举似乎加剧了这一势头，为比特币在 2017 年 12 月攀升至 20,000 美元的历史高点奠定了基础。

This bull market, spanning 522 days post-halving, reflected the maturing adoption cycle of Bitcoin and the increasing influence of institutional participants.

减半后持续522天的牛市反映了比特币采用周期的成熟以及机构参与者影响力的不断增强。

Christmas in 2016 marked the moment when Bitcoin began transitioning from a niche investment into a mainstream asset, paving the way for the 2017 bull run. In 2016, Bitcoin rallied an impressive 80%.

2016 年的圣诞节标志着比特币开始从利基投资转变为主流资产的时刻，为 2017 年的牛市铺平了道路。 2016 年，比特币上涨了 80%，令人印象深刻。

Bitcoin in 2020: A Positive Christmas and Era of Institutional Adoption

2020 年的比特币：积极的圣诞节和机构采用的时代

The 2020 halving once again demonstrated the power of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, but this time it played out in a much larger, more liquid market.

2020 年的减半再次证明了比特币供应动态的力量，但这一次它是在一个更大、流动性更强的市场中发挥作用的。

Following the May halving, Bitcoin consolidated near $8,000–$10,000 for several months, with price action remaining relatively muted. However, as the year-end approached, things began to accelerate.

5 月减半后，比特币连续几个月在 8,000 至 10,000 美元附近盘整，价格走势相对平静。然而，随着年底的临近，事情开始加速。

The US election in November was the catalyst for a sharp 80% rally in the weeks leading up to Christmas illustrated below.

11 月份的美国大选是圣诞节前几周股价大幅上涨 80% 的催化剂，如下图所示。

By the holiday season, Bitcoin was breaking new highs near $25,000, setting the stage for an explosive move to $64,000 by April 2021.

到假日季节，比特币突破了接近 25,000 美元的新高，为 2021 年 4 月爆炸性上涨至 64,000 美元奠定了基础。

The 2020 Christmas rally was symbolic of a new era, as institutional players like MicroStrategy and Tesla entered the market, signaling Bitcoin’s start into a globally recognized store-of-value for companies and individuals wishing to preserve capital.

2020 年圣诞涨势象征着一个新时代，像 MicroStrategy 和特斯拉这样的机构参与者进入市场，标志着比特币开始成为全球公认的希望保存资本的公司和个人的价值储存手段。

The year-end holidays became synonymous with exuberance as Bitcoin made its case as digital gold.

随着比特币成为数字黄金，年底假期成为繁荣的代名词。

Bitcoin in 2024: A Christmas Countdown Like No Other

2024 年的比特币：与众不同的圣诞节倒计时

In 2024, Bitcoin finds itself at another interesting moment. With the hal

2024 年，比特币发现自己处于另一个有趣的时刻。与哈尔