Bitcoin Christmas: A Look at Past Trends and a Prediction for 2024

As the holiday season rolls around, Bitcoiners and crypto investors might wonder how the industry performs during Christmas. This article explores historical data to understand how Bitcoin performed over December

Bitcoin’s performance during Christmas has varied over the years, reflecting the broader market cycle. In early years, Bitcoin quietly accumulated value during the holiday season. However, during bull markets, such as 2020 and 2017, Bitcoin has seen substantial gains, rising by 50% and 40%, respectively. Conversely, during bear markets or post-cycle peaks, such as 2018 and 2021, Bitcoin has experienced corrections, declining by 6% and 19%, respectively. These trends highlight Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, making the holiday season both opportune and reflective for investors.

Bitcoin and U.S. Election Years: A Symphony of Halving Cycles and Political Turmoil Shaping Market Movements

United States presidential election years are inherently dramatic, and for Bitcoin, they have often coincided with pivotal market moments. Since Bitcoin’s inception, every US presidential election (2012, 2016, and 2020) has also been a pre-halving year. Understanding Bitcoin’s price behavior during these important periods is essential for investors and traders alike.

A combination of a Bitcoin halving and an election cycle has historically created a fertile ground for large price moves. During such times, Bitcoin often stands out as a scarce asset and a potential hedge against inflation. Election years are synonymous with heightened uncertainty, providing ideal conditions for Bitcoin to rally and secure its position in the global spotlight once clarity over the election winner is confirmed.

Bitcoin in 2012: A Quiet Christmas That Led to Explosive Rallies

The first-ever halving in November 2012 triggered a massive shift in Bitcoin’s price behaviour. Pre-halving, Bitcoin was consolidating around $10–$12, showing little immediate reaction to the halving itself.

However, by December, the market had started building momentum, with Bitcoin rising steadily during the holiday season approximately by 10% as shown in the image below.

Past December Bitcoin embarked on an extraordinary rally, hitting an all-time high of $266 by April 2013.

The journey from the halving to the peak took 132 days, with the price increasing by a large 2,135%. Christmas of 2012 symbolized early optimism of this young asset class, which was just beginning to show its potential for parabolic growth.

Bitcoin in 2016: A Gradual Build Toward the Next Christmas High

Rewinding back to 2016, Bitcoin had matured but still held onto its signature post-halving behavior. Following the July halving, Bitcoin traded in a stable range of $600–$700 for several months. However, as the year progressed, the market began heating up.

By December 2016, Bitcoin broke out, rallying over 50% into the new year. The election in November seemed to add fuel to this momentum, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s climb to its then all-time high of $20,000 in December 2017.

This bull market, spanning 522 days post-halving, reflected the maturing adoption cycle of Bitcoin and the increasing influence of institutional participants.

Christmas in 2016 marked the moment when Bitcoin began transitioning from a niche investment into a mainstream asset, paving the way for the 2017 bull run. In 2016, Bitcoin rallied an impressive 80%.

Bitcoin in 2020: A Positive Christmas and Era of Institutional Adoption

The 2020 halving once again demonstrated the power of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, but this time it played out in a much larger, more liquid market.

Following the May halving, Bitcoin consolidated near $8,000–$10,000 for several months, with price action remaining relatively muted. However, as the year-end approached, things began to accelerate.

The US election in November was the catalyst for a sharp 80% rally in the weeks leading up to Christmas illustrated below.

By the holiday season, Bitcoin was breaking new highs near $25,000, setting the stage for an explosive move to $64,000 by April 2021.

The 2020 Christmas rally was symbolic of a new era, as institutional players like MicroStrategy and Tesla entered the market, signaling Bitcoin’s start into a globally recognized store-of-value for companies and individuals wishing to preserve capital.

The year-end holidays became synonymous with exuberance as Bitcoin made its case as digital gold.

Bitcoin in 2024: A Christmas Countdown Like No Other

In 2024, Bitcoin finds itself at another interesting moment. With the hal