分析表明，比特幣牛市可能已接近頂峰

Glassnode 的分析表明，根據歷史價格走勢比較，當前的比特幣牛市週期已接近頂峰。該資產目前的狀況距離 2021 年 4 月創下的歷史新高約 35 個月，與先前週期中觀察到的模式一致，表明每枚代幣的價格可能飆升至 25 萬美元。

Bitcoin's Bull Market Peak: History Suggests Proximity

比特幣牛市頂峰：歷史顯示接近頂峰

Glassnode's lead analyst, James Check, recently presented a comparative chart showcasing Bitcoin's price trajectory over the past three years against previous Bitcoin epochs following their respective all-time highs.

Glassnode 的首席分析師 James Check 最近提供了一張比較圖表，顯示了過去三年比特幣的價格軌跡與之前的比特幣時代在各自的歷史高點之後的情況。

Bitcoin's Current Position

比特幣目前的狀況

According to Check's analysis, Bitcoin is currently in a position analogous to that of December 2020. At that juncture, the asset had recently surpassed its all-time high of $19,600, set in December 2017, and subsequently surged to $64,000 within months.

根據 Check 的分析，比特幣目前的狀況與 2020 年 12 月類似。當時，該資產最近超過了 2017 年 12 月創下的歷史高點 19,600 美元，隨後在幾個月內飆升至 64,000 美元。

Similarly, Bitcoin's current position, approximately 35 months after peaking in April 2021, has seen it rebound to a high of $74,000 in March 2024. Notably, it experienced a temporary pullback last week, reminiscent of the 20% to 30% price declines observed in prior cycles, as long-term holders divested their assets.

同樣，比特幣目前的位置，在2021 年4 月達到頂峰約35 個月後，已於2024 年3 月反彈至74,000 美元的高點。值得注意的是，它上週經歷了暫時的回調，讓人想起2020 年2 月觀察到的20% 至30% 的價格下跌。在先前的周期中，長期持有者剝離了資產。

"The rationale for using April as the starting point is that it marked the onset of bear market sentiment, hence the duration of recovery should be measured from that point," Check explained.

「使用四月作為起點的理由是，它標誌著熊市情緒的開始，因此復甦的持續時間應該從該點開始衡量，」檢查解釋道。

True Peak versus Technical Peak

真實峰值與技術峰值

While Bitcoin technically reached its highest price in 2021 at $69,000 in November, Glassnode previously highlighted that Bitcoin's true "peak" occurred in April 2021 from an on-chain behavioral perspective. During this period, long-term holders began selling their coins en masse, mirroring patterns observed in previous cycles.

雖然從技術上講，比特幣在 11 月達到了 2021 年的最高價格 69,000 美元，但 Glassnode 先前強調，從鏈上行為的角度來看，比特幣真正的「高峰」發生在 2021 年 4 月。在此期間，長期持有者開始大量出售其代幣，這與先前週期中觀察到的模式類似。

Check has noted that this selloff has already commenced this year. Long-term holders are currently distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month, compared to 319,000 BTC and 836,000 BTC during major market expansions in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

檢查指出，這種拋售已經在今年開始。長期持有者目前以每月 257,000 BTC 的速度分配代幣，而 2019 年和 2021 年主要市場擴張期間分別為 319,000 BTC 和 836,000 BTC。

Future Trajectory

未來軌跡

Check believes that even Bitcoin "shrimp" – investors with less than 1 BTC – are starting to sell their coins, despite their diligent accumulation and HODLing throughout the bear market.

Check 認為，即使是比特幣「蝦」——擁有少於 1 BTC 的投資者——也開始出售他們的比特幣，儘管他們在整個熊市期間都在努力積累和持有。

Nonetheless, Check remains optimistic about the market's condition, describing it as one of the most "robust" bull markets in history. "Chopsolidation and some bull crabbing is the most probable outcome for weeks to months imho," he tweeted on Sunday.

儘管如此，檢查仍然對市場狀況持樂觀態度，稱其為歷史上最「強勁」的牛市之一。他週日在推特上寫道：“恕我直言，幾周到幾個月內最有可能出現的結果是混合和一些牛蟹行為。”

The analyst predicts that Bitcoin will surpass $250,000 per coin by the end of its current bull cycle.

分析師預測，到當前牛市週期結束時，比特幣的價格將超過每枚 25 萬美元。

Recent Market Activity

近期市集活動

Bitcoin's price surged over 4% on Monday, exceeding $70,000 and rebounding from last week's pullback, which coincided with significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Notably, outflows from the ETF continued on Monday, totaling $350 million.

週一，比特幣價格飆升超過 4%，突破 70,000 美元，並從上週的回調中反彈，恰逢灰階比特幣信託基金 (GBTC) 出現大量資金流出。值得注意的是，週一 ETF 資金持續流出，資金總額達 3.5 億美元。