Bitcoin's Bull Market May Be Nearing Its Peak, Analysis Suggests

Glassnode's analysis suggests that the current Bitcoin bull market cycle is nearing its peak, based on historical price action comparisons. The asset's current position, approximately 35 months after its previous all-time high in April 2021, aligns with patterns observed in prior cycles, indicating a potential surge towards $250,000 per coin.

Bitcoin's Bull Market Peak: History Suggests Proximity

Glassnode's lead analyst, James Check, recently presented a comparative chart showcasing Bitcoin's price trajectory over the past three years against previous Bitcoin epochs following their respective all-time highs.

Bitcoin's Current Position

According to Check's analysis, Bitcoin is currently in a position analogous to that of December 2020. At that juncture, the asset had recently surpassed its all-time high of $19,600, set in December 2017, and subsequently surged to $64,000 within months.

Similarly, Bitcoin's current position, approximately 35 months after peaking in April 2021, has seen it rebound to a high of $74,000 in March 2024. Notably, it experienced a temporary pullback last week, reminiscent of the 20% to 30% price declines observed in prior cycles, as long-term holders divested their assets.

"The rationale for using April as the starting point is that it marked the onset of bear market sentiment, hence the duration of recovery should be measured from that point," Check explained.

True Peak versus Technical Peak

While Bitcoin technically reached its highest price in 2021 at $69,000 in November, Glassnode previously highlighted that Bitcoin's true "peak" occurred in April 2021 from an on-chain behavioral perspective. During this period, long-term holders began selling their coins en masse, mirroring patterns observed in previous cycles.

Check has noted that this selloff has already commenced this year. Long-term holders are currently distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month, compared to 319,000 BTC and 836,000 BTC during major market expansions in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

Future Trajectory

Check believes that even Bitcoin "shrimp" – investors with less than 1 BTC – are starting to sell their coins, despite their diligent accumulation and HODLing throughout the bear market.

Nonetheless, Check remains optimistic about the market's condition, describing it as one of the most "robust" bull markets in history. "Chopsolidation and some bull crabbing is the most probable outcome for weeks to months imho," he tweeted on Sunday.

The analyst predicts that Bitcoin will surpass $250,000 per coin by the end of its current bull cycle.

Recent Market Activity

Bitcoin's price surged over 4% on Monday, exceeding $70,000 and rebounding from last week's pullback, which coincided with significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Notably, outflows from the ETF continued on Monday, totaling $350 million.