分析表明，比特币牛市可能已接近顶峰

Glassnode 的分析表明，根据历史价格走势比较，当前的比特币牛市周期已接近顶峰。该资产目前的状况距离 2021 年 4 月创下的历史新高大约 35 个月，与之前周期中观察到的模式一致，表明每枚代币的价格可能飙升至 250,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Bull Market Peak: History Suggests Proximity

比特币牛市顶峰：历史表明接近顶峰

Glassnode's lead analyst, James Check, recently presented a comparative chart showcasing Bitcoin's price trajectory over the past three years against previous Bitcoin epochs following their respective all-time highs.

Glassnode 的首席分析师 James Check 最近提供了一张比较图表，显示了过去三年比特币的价格轨迹与之前的比特币时代在各自的历史高点之后的情况。

Bitcoin's Current Position

比特币目前的状况

According to Check's analysis, Bitcoin is currently in a position analogous to that of December 2020. At that juncture, the asset had recently surpassed its all-time high of $19,600, set in December 2017, and subsequently surged to $64,000 within months.

根据 Check 的分析，比特币目前的状况与 2020 年 12 月类似。当时，该资产最近超过了 2017 年 12 月创下的历史高点 19,600 美元，随后在几个月内飙升至 64,000 美元。

Similarly, Bitcoin's current position, approximately 35 months after peaking in April 2021, has seen it rebound to a high of $74,000 in March 2024. Notably, it experienced a temporary pullback last week, reminiscent of the 20% to 30% price declines observed in prior cycles, as long-term holders divested their assets.

同样，比特币目前的位置，在 2021 年 4 月达到顶峰约 35 个月后，已于 2024 年 3 月反弹至 74,000 美元的高点。值得注意的是，它上周经历了暂时的回调，让人想起 2020 年 2 月观察到的 20% 至 30% 的价格下跌。之前的周期中，长期持有者剥离了资产。

"The rationale for using April as the starting point is that it marked the onset of bear market sentiment, hence the duration of recovery should be measured from that point," Check explained.

“使用四月作为起点的理由是，它标志着熊市情绪的开始，因此复苏的持续时间应该从该点开始衡量，”检查解释道。

True Peak versus Technical Peak

真实峰值与技术峰值

While Bitcoin technically reached its highest price in 2021 at $69,000 in November, Glassnode previously highlighted that Bitcoin's true "peak" occurred in April 2021 from an on-chain behavioral perspective. During this period, long-term holders began selling their coins en masse, mirroring patterns observed in previous cycles.

虽然从技术上讲，比特币在 11 月达到了 2021 年的最高价格 69,000 美元，但 Glassnode 此前强调，从链上行为的角度来看，比特币真正的“峰值”发生在 2021 年 4 月。在此期间，长期持有者开始大量出售其代币，这与之前周期中观察到的模式类似。

Check has noted that this selloff has already commenced this year. Long-term holders are currently distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month, compared to 319,000 BTC and 836,000 BTC during major market expansions in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

检查指出，这种抛售已经在今年开始。长期持有者目前以每月 257,000 BTC 的速度分配代币，而 2019 年和 2021 年主要市场扩张期间分别为 319,000 BTC 和 836,000 BTC。

Future Trajectory

未来轨迹

Check believes that even Bitcoin "shrimp" – investors with less than 1 BTC – are starting to sell their coins, despite their diligent accumulation and HODLing throughout the bear market.

Check 认为，即使是比特币“虾”——拥有少于 1 BTC 的投资者——也开始出售他们的比特币，尽管他们在整个熊市期间都在努力积累和持有。

Nonetheless, Check remains optimistic about the market's condition, describing it as one of the most "robust" bull markets in history. "Chopsolidation and some bull crabbing is the most probable outcome for weeks to months imho," he tweeted on Sunday.

尽管如此，检查仍然对市场状况持乐观态度，称其为历史上最“强劲”的牛市之一。他周日在推特上写道：“恕我直言，几周到几个月内最有可能出现的结果是混合和一些牛蟹行为。”

The analyst predicts that Bitcoin will surpass $250,000 per coin by the end of its current bull cycle.

分析师预测，到当前牛市周期结束时，比特币的价格将超过每枚 250,000 美元。

Recent Market Activity

近期市场活动

Bitcoin's price surged over 4% on Monday, exceeding $70,000 and rebounding from last week's pullback, which coincided with significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Notably, outflows from the ETF continued on Monday, totaling $350 million.

周一，比特币价格飙升超过 4%，突破 70,000 美元，并从上周的回调中反弹，恰逢灰度比特币信托基金 (GBTC) 出现大量资金流出。值得注意的是，周一 ETF 资金继续流出，资金总额达 3.5 亿美元。