比特幣（BTC-USD）在 2024 年減半前創下歷史新高：歷史性轉變？

比特幣再創歷史新高，為今年第二季發生的 2024 年減半奠定了基礎。

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has been rallying rapidly, and now the market is abuzz with speculations of a price rise to $160K. Analysts are looking at several factors that have contributed to this rise, and one of them is the Bitcoin halving event.

比特幣（BTC-USD）一直在迅速上漲，現在市場上充斥著價格上漲至 16 萬美元的猜測。分析師正在研究導致這一上漲的幾個因素，其中之一就是比特幣減半事件。

Before the 2024 Halving event, the leading crypto set a new all-time high, breaking the traditional pattern of price surges after a halving.

在2024年減半事件之前，領先的加密貨幣創下了歷史新高，打破了減半後價格飆升的傳統模式。

This shift was driven by growing institutional involvement and regulatory changes, marking a turning point in Bitcoin’s market dynamics.

這一轉變是由不斷增加的機構參與和監管變化所推動的，標誌著比特幣市場動態的轉折點。

Bitcoin Sets New All-Time High Before 2024 Halving: A Historic Shift?

比特幣在 2024 年減半前創下歷史新高：歷史性轉變？

Bitcoin reached another all-time high to set the stage before its 2024 halving event that occurred in the second quarter of the year.

比特幣再創歷史新高，為 2024 年第二季發生的減半事件做好準備。

Past cycles saw Bitcoin’s highest prices come after the halving. A halving is traditionally seen as a catalyst for price growth, but today’s Bitcoin price has already outpaced records.

在過去的周期中，比特幣的最高價格出現在減半之後。傳統上，減半被視為價格上漲的催化劑，但今天的比特幣價格已經超過了歷史記錄。

This evolution of market dynamics warrants closer examination at the role of institutions and regulatory changes.

市場動態的演變需要對機構的角色和監管變化進行更仔細的檢視。

Growing institutional interest, along with the approval of Bitcoin ETF, could be factoring into Bitcoin’s price trajectory differently than past cycles.

不斷增長的機構興趣以及比特幣 ETF 的批准，可能會影響比特幣的價格軌跡，使其與過去的周期有所不同。

However, unlike in the past, where Bitcoin corrected within a few months after the halving, the current market behavior was a mystery.

然而，與過去比特幣在減半後幾個月內回檔的情況不同，目前的市場行為是一個謎。

Past cycles typically saw corrections unfold within 200–250 days of the halving, but this time may be different.

過去的周期通常會在減半後 200-250 天內出現修正，但這次可能會有所不同。

Bitcoin ETF, Ethereum ETF Sees Record Inflows in Early December 2024

2024 年 12 月初，比特幣 ETF、以太坊 ETF 資金流入創歷史新高

Markets saw unprecedented inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs during the second week of December, as institutional investors showed their confidence.

12 月第二週，隨著機構投資者表現出信心，市場出現了前所未有的資金流入比特幣和以太坊 ETF 的情況。

The period saw Bitcoin ETFs record $2.167 Billion in inflows and Ethereum ETFs $854.8 Million.

在此期間，比特幣 ETF 的流入量達到 21.67 億美元，以太坊 ETF 的流入量達到 8.548 億美元。

Both assets saw two consecutive weeks of positive inflows, as institutional interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow.

隨著機構對加密貨幣的興趣持續增長，這兩種資產都連續兩週出現正流入。

The capital surge into these ETFs highlights a broader trend of cryptocurrency adoption in the traditional financial market.

這些 ETF 的資本激增凸顯了傳統金融市場採用加密貨幣的更廣泛趨勢。

Ethereum, in particular, saw its highest weekly inflow since the launch of its ETF, indicating strong demand.

尤其是以太坊，其周資金流入量創下其 ETF 推出以來的最高水平，顯示需求強勁。

The trend of continuous inflows signals investor confidence in Bitcoin and Ethereum as the digital economy’s long-term, reliable assets.

持續流入的趨勢顯示投資者對比特幣和以太坊作為數位經濟長期可靠資產的信心。

Crypto market maturity extends to institutional investors like BlackRock and other financial powerhouses now accessing it.

加密貨幣市場的成熟度擴展到了貝萊德等機構投資者和其他正在進入加密貨幣市場的金融巨頭。

Bitcoin (BTC USD) Market Outlook: Comparing 2023 to Past Cycles

比特幣 (BTC USD) 市場展望：2023 年與過去週期的比較

In 2023, Bitcoin’s price movements were closely tracking the patterns of previous cycles, specifically the 2015 and 2018 cycles.

2023 年，比特幣的價格走勢密切追蹤先前週期的模式，特別是 2015 年和 2018 年週期。

If Bitcoin continues following these patterns, the market could peak around October 2025. From a cycle low, Bitcoin showed historic price movements, veering up.

如果比特幣繼續遵循這些模式，市場可能會在 2025 年 10 月左右達到頂峰。

However, there was another possibility. If Bitcoin follows the trajectory of the 2011 cycle, the market top could have already occurred.

然而，還有另一種可能。如果比特幣遵循 2011 年周期的軌跡，市場頂部可能已經出現。

In this potential scenario, it would mean Bitcoin has already seen its peak for the current cycle, a scenario that might clash with expectations of a bull run.

在這種潛在的情況下，這意味著比特幣已經看到了當前週期的峰值，這種情況可能與牛市的預期發生衝突。

A study of Bitcoin’s previous cycles, including 2011, 2015, and 2018, showed varying patterns as BTC reached its market peak.

對比特幣之前週期（包括 2011 年、2015 年和 2018 年）的研究顯示，隨著 BTC 達到市場頂峰，比特幣出現了不同的模式。

Some cycles took years for Bitcoin to reach the top, while others were quicker.

有些週期比特幣需要數年時間才能達到頂峰，而有些週期則更快。

How Social Media Influenced Bitcoin’s Rise to $101.5K

社群媒體如何影響比特幣升至 101,500 美元

Recent resilience within the market saw Bitcoin (BTC – USD) reach a new high of $101.5K. Throughout the price increases, social media sentiment was surprisingly muted, reflecting an important market dynamic.

最近市場的反彈見證了比特幣 (BTC – USD) 達到 101,500 美元的新高。在整個價格上漲過程中，社群媒體情緒出乎意料地平靜，反映了一個重要的市場動態。

In this case, social media buzz was the inverse of previous movements, where high social sentiment typically preceded large price swings.

在這種情況下，社群媒體的熱度與先前的走勢相反，在先前的走勢中，高漲的社會情緒通常先於價格大幅波動。

Spikes in social media volume were usually linked with price drops, and lower activity signaled an increase in price.

社群媒體流量的激增通常與價格下跌有關，而活動減少則意味著價格上漲。

For example, a sudden spike in social interest was followed by a price fall, and the most recent price surge was preceded by less conversation on social platforms.

例如，社交興趣突然飆升之後價格下跌，而最近一次價格飆升之前社交平台上的對話減少。

This pattern demonstrates the critical nature of contrarian Bitcoin trading strategies. Those observing trends and acting on them—buying when sentiment is low and selling if excitement is high—can gain a clearer perspective on market movements.

這種模式展示了逆向比特幣交易策略的關鍵性質。那些觀察趨勢並據此採取行動的人——在情緒低落時買入，在情緒高漲時賣出——可以對市場走勢有更清晰的認識。

This approach is especially useful in the volatile Bitcoin market, where social sentiment has become a powerful tool for anticipating price movements.

這種方法在波動的比特幣市場中特別有用，因為社會情緒已成為預測價格趨勢的強大工具。