比特幣（BTC 3.02％）現在以約80,000美元的價格交易

比特幣（BTC 3.02％）現在以約80,000美元左右的價格進行交易，但在正確的條件下，它可以飛到200,000美元或更多

The world’s second-largest economy may be setting the stage for a massive Bitcoin (BTC 3.02%) rally, if a pair of possibilities come to pass.

如果一對可能性通過，世界第二大經濟體可能正在為大規模的比特幣（BTC 3.02％）集會奠定基礎。

China's economy is driven by its vast domestic market as well as its export-focused industries in electronics and machinery. For its domestic market to function smoothly, consumers need to be making money and spending it on Chinese-produced goods. If incomes are insufficient, or if people are reluctant to spend, the economy will not have enough demand for businesses to remain healthy.

中國的經濟受到其廣闊的國內市場以及以電子和機械為中心的出口行業的驅動。為了使其國內市場順利運轉，消費者需要賺錢並將其花在中國生產的商品上。如果收入不足，或者人們不願花費，那麼經濟將沒有足夠的需求來保持健康。

It appears that the Chinese government is worried enough about that possibility to take action. Under a new policy package announced on March 16, building on previous proposals released during the past few months, the country will be raising its minimum wage and expanding its social safety net significantly, among other measures, in an attempt to increase consumer incomes.

看來中國政府對採取行動的可能性充滿了擔憂。根據3月16日宣布的新政策計劃，基於過去幾個月發布的先前提案，該國將提高其最低工資，並大大擴大其社會安全網絡，以及其他措施，以增加消費者收入。

At the same time, China's central bank has stated that it may slash its main interest rate, reducing borrowing costs for businesses, and it may also inject liquidity directly into its financial system. Other measures intended to prop up the economy -- like issuing more debt, and running a bigger budget deficit -- are also in progress and may be expanded in time.

同時，中國中央銀行表示，它可能會削減其主要利率，從而降低企業的借貸成本，並且也可以將流動性直接注入其金融體系。旨在提高經濟的其他措施（例如發行更多的債務和更大的預算赤字）也正在進行中，並且可能會及時擴大。

So there will be a comprehensive set of new stimuli for China's economy. The push may or may not succeed in driving more domestic demand, but given the whole-economy approach, it is more likely to succeed than to fail. But how does any of that relate to Bitcoin?

因此，將為中國的經濟提供一系列全面的刺激。推動力可能會或可能不會成功地推動更多的國內需求，但是鑑於整個經濟學方法，更有可能成功的可能性而不是失敗。但是，這與比特幣有何關係？

After all, mining and trading cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, are officially banned in China. But as of late February, the highest judicial court in the country was discussing regulations pertaining to the legal status of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.

畢竟，包括比特幣在內的採礦和交易加密貨幣在中國被正式禁止。但是截至2月下旬，該國最高的司法法院正在討論與加密貨幣和其他數字資產的法律地位有關的法規。

If those discussions ultimately lead to Bitcoin legalization (and they might), it would be a new catalyst for the coin. But if that legalization occurred precisely when people's incomes were rising rapidly, and when they were being encouraged by the government to both invest and consume, the positive impact on the coin's price might be even stronger, which is the upside possibility that's worth understanding here.

如果這些討論最終導致比特幣合法化（並且可能），那將是硬幣的新催化劑。但是，如果這種合法化恰好發生在人們的收入迅速上升時，當政府鼓勵他們投資和消費時，對硬幣價格的積極影響可能會更加強大，這是值得理解的上升可能性。

That's especially plausible, because earlier this year, the government directed its pensions and mutual funds to invest more in domestic stocks to support prices. In other words, if Bitcoin is legalized and the government understands that its newly wealthier citizens are buying an asset, it could tell its businesses to buy the coin, too, to make sure that its price is supported. And that would send the coin even higher.

這尤其合理，因為今年早些時候，政府指示其養老金和共同基金投資於國內股票以支持價格。換句話說，如果比特幣合法化並且政府知道其新富裕的公民正在購買資產，它也可以告訴企業也購買硬幣，以確保其價格得到支持。這將使硬幣更高。

For the moment, the above sequence of events is somewhere between a pipe dream and reality. But there's one other huge possibility that, if it happens, would make the first possibility much more likely, and also a more potent tailwind for the coin.

目前，上面的事件序列位於白日夢和現實之間。但是，如果發生的話，還有一個巨大的可能性將使第一可能的可能性更大，並且對硬幣的逆風更加有效。

China may be considering or already is working toward forming a national Bitcoin repository, much as the U.S. now is with its plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. That's much more realistic than it sounds. More than 21% of the global mining capacity for Bitcoin is illicitly based in China.

中國可能正在考慮或已經在努力建立國家比特幣存儲庫，就像美國現在有戰略性比特幣儲備計劃一樣。這比聽起來更現實。比特幣全球採礦能力的21％以上是在中國非法的。

Therefore, if the country were to form a Bitcoin repository, it would be doing so as a way to back one of its domestic industries while supporting the value of the assets in its reserve. Under those conditions, it would not be surprising if companies were advised to retain some Bitcoin, create positive price pressure for the country's miners as well as (possibly) its newly invested citizens.

因此，如果該國要組建一個比特幣存儲庫，那將是一種支持其一家國內行業的方式，同時支持其儲備金中資產的價值。在這些條件下，如果建議公司保留一些比特幣，為該國的礦工以及（可能）（可能）（可能）其新投資的公民造成正價壓力，這並不奇怪。

And that would be a powerful set of interlinked drivers that could send Bitcoin's price to $200,000 or even higher.

這將是一組強大的相互聯繫的駕駛員，可以將比特幣的價格提高到200,000美元甚至更高。

So, what should you do? Gradually accumulate and hold Bitcoin. It will be hard to go wrong if these possibilities end up playing out. Keep in mind that there is no guarantee that the government of China will actually move forward with legalization or its Bitcoin reserve -- but at the same time, recognize that the asset is worth buying even if neither of those possibilities actually happen.

那麼，你該怎麼辦？逐漸積累並持有比特幣。如果這些可能性最終發揮作用將很難出錯。請記住，不能保證中國政府實際上將通過合法化或其比特幣儲備向前邁進 - 但與此同時，即使這些可能性實際上都沒有發生，也要認識到資產值得購買。