當特朗普暗示關稅掉頭時，比特幣（BTC）集會重新開始

比特幣（BTC）的波動性在周三持續存在，因為交易者對美國貿易政策的新事態發展做出了反應。

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility persisted on Wednesday as traders reacted to fresh developments in U.S. trade policy.

比特幣（BTC）的波動性在周三持續存在，因為交易者對美國貿易政策的新事態發展做出了反應。

Since President Donald Trump announced the creation of a Crypto Strategic Reserve on Sunday, March 2, BTC has traded within 10% ranges for three consecutive days.

自從唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統於3月2日（星期日）宣布創建加密戰略儲備金以來，BTC連續三天在10％的範圍內交易。

After surging 11% following the strategic reserve announcement, Bitcoin’s rally was abruptly halted when Trump confirmed a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico, triggering a sharp 15% sell-off on Monday. However, the market took another dramatic turn on Wednesday.

在戰略儲備公告宣布11％之後，比特幣的集會突然停止了，當特朗普確認對加拿大和墨西哥的進口關稅25％，在周一引發了15％的拋售。但是，市場在周三又發生了戲劇性的轉折。

Late Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated that President Trump will “probably” reach a compromise with Canada and Mexico in the coming days. Traders responded swiftly, piling into buy orders on optimism that an anticipated tariff rollback could ease economic uncertainty, bolstering risk assets like Bitcoin.

週二晚些時候，美國商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnick）表示，特朗普總統將在未來幾天與加拿大和墨西哥達成妥協。貿易商迅速做出了回應，以樂觀的態度堆積了預期的關稅回滾可能會緩解經濟不確定性，從而加強了像比特幣這樣的風險資產。

Within 12 hours of Lutnick’s statement, BTC surged 10%, rallying from its weekly low of $81,400 recorded on Tuesday to reclaim levels above $91,500 by mid-day in U.S. trading. If bullish momentum holds, a close above $90,000 could reinforce a broader breakout attempt, setting the stage for Bitcoin to target new highs.

在盧特尼克（Lutnick）發表聲明的12小時內，BTC飆升了10％，從周二記錄的每週低點的低至81,400美元的低點集會，到美國中午在美國交易中收回了高於91,500美元的水平。如果看漲的勢頭持續下去，超過90,000美元以上的接近可能會加強更廣泛的突破嘗試，為比特幣奠定了目標。

Lance Roberts flags Trade war reactions exerting bearish pressure on BTC price action

蘭斯·羅伯茨（Lance Roberts）國旗貿易戰爭反應對BTC價格行動施加看跌壓力

On Wednesday, BTC price reclaimed territories above the $91,500 level as markets reacted to speculations that U.S. President Donald Trump could ease tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico. Bitcoin analyst Lance Roberts published charts showing how U.S. Trade policy has impacted financial markets in recent weeks.

週三，由於市場對美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）可以減輕對加拿大和墨西哥徵收的關稅的猜測，BTC價格回收了高於91,500美元的領土。比特幣分析師蘭斯·羅伯茨（Lance Roberts）發布了圖表，顯示了最近幾周美國貿易政策如何影響金融市場。

“Trade War 1 vs Trade War 2. So far, the #market is tracing out Trump’s first trade war fairly closely. While no two markets are ever the same, it is worth noting that even though markets declined, they also rallied. The point here is to ignore media headlines and focus on your portfolio.”

“貿易戰1 vs貿易戰爭2。到目前為止，#Market正在相當仔細地追踪特朗普的第一場貿易戰。儘管沒有兩個市場是一樣的，但值得注意的是，即使市場下降，它們也集會了。這裡的目的是忽略媒體頭條並專注於您的投資組合。”

– Lance Roberts, March 5, 2025

- 蘭斯·羅伯茨（Lance Roberts），2025年3月5日

Diving into the chart he posted, Lance Roberts’ chart draws a striking parallel between the S&P 500’s performance during the 2019 trade war and its 2025 trajectory, illustrating how historical market reactions to U.S. trade tensions could be playing out again.

蘭斯·羅伯茨（Lance Roberts）的圖表在他發布的圖表中潛入圖表上，在2019年貿易戰期間標準普爾500指數的表現與2025年軌蹟之間的表現相似，這說明了歷史市場對美國貿易緊張局勢的反應如何再次發揮作用。

In 2019, the market initially rallied before experiencing volatility linked to major trade-related developments.

2019年，市場最初在經歷與主要貿易相關發展有關的波動性之前就集結了。

One key moment highlighted in the chart is when former President Trump called off 25% tariffs on Mexico, triggering a strong rally.

圖表中強調的一個關鍵時刻是，前總統特朗普在墨西哥取消了25％的關稅，引發了強烈的集會。

Later, news of Trump-Xi trade deal talks fueled further gains, reinforcing the notion of a “Trump put”—the market’s expectation that Trump would eventually ease trade tensions to support equities. This de facto put acted as a backstop, preventing prolonged downturns despite interim sell-offs.

後來，關於特朗普-XI貿易協定談判的消息加劇了進一步的收益，加強了“特朗普投擲”的概念，這是市場對特朗普最終將緩解貿易緊張張力以支持股票的市場的期望。事實上，這是一個後台，儘管暫停拋售，但仍阻止了長期衰退。

So far in 2025, the S&P 500 has followed a similar script, with a strong start before recent weakness, aligning with the early phases of the 2019 pattern.

到目前為止，在2025年，標準普爾500指數遵循了類似的腳本，在最近的弱點之前，他的腳本很強，與2019年模式的早期階段保持一致。

This suggests that while the market is experiencing turbulence amid trade concerns, a potential bullish pivot could occur if Trump signals a shift in policy, just as it did in 2019. If history rhymes, Bitcoin could benefit as a risk asset.

這表明，儘管在貿易問題上，市場正在經歷湍流，但如果特朗普在2019年的政策變化時，可能會發生一個潛在的看漲樞紐。

BTC Price Outlook on US Trade War

BTC價格前景美國貿易戰

However, the bearish case remains compelling. Unlike in 2019, today’s market is contending with structurally higher interest rates, which could dampen any relief rallies. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s policy stance is less accommodative, meaning liquidity injections that cushioned past downturns may not materialize.

但是，看跌案仍然令人信服。與2019年不同，當今的市場與結構上更高的利率競爭，這可能會削弱任何救濟集會。此外，美聯儲的政策立場較不寬容，這意味著流動性的流動性可以緩衝過去的低迷狀態。

Ultimately, whether the 2019 pattern continues to play out in full will depend on the next moves from policymakers.

最終，2019年模式是否繼續全面發揮作用將取決於決策者的下一步行動。

If trade tensions escalate further without policy relief and risk appetite deteriorates, BTC’s recent gains could be short-lived, exposing the market to deeper corrections.

如果貿易緊張局勢進一步升級而沒有政策緩解和風險食慾惡化，那麼BTC最近的收益可能是短暫的，將市場暴露於更深層的更正。

Conversely, if Trump eases the tariffs this week, both S&P 500 equities and Bitcoin price could be poised for another leg higher. In this case BTC price could hit new all-time highs near $120,000 once U.S. Treasury begins buying BTC and other assets included in the crypto strategic reserve bucket.

相反，如果特朗普本周放鬆了關稅，那麼S＆P 500股票和比特幣價格都可以預先提高另一支腿。在這種情況下，一旦美國財政部開始購買BTC和加密戰略儲備存儲桶中包含的其他資產，BTC價格可能會達到$ 120,000的新歷史高點。