当特朗普暗示关税掉头时，比特币（BTC）集会重新开始

比特币（BTC）的波动性在周三持续存在，因为交易者对美国贸易政策的新事态发展做出了反应。

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility persisted on Wednesday as traders reacted to fresh developments in U.S. trade policy.

比特币（BTC）的波动性在周三持续存在，因为交易者对美国贸易政策的新事态发展做出了反应。

Since President Donald Trump announced the creation of a Crypto Strategic Reserve on Sunday, March 2, BTC has traded within 10% ranges for three consecutive days.

自从唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统于3月2日（星期日）宣布创建加密战略储备金以来，BTC连续三天在10％的范围内交易。

After surging 11% following the strategic reserve announcement, Bitcoin’s rally was abruptly halted when Trump confirmed a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico, triggering a sharp 15% sell-off on Monday. However, the market took another dramatic turn on Wednesday.

在战略储备公告宣布11％之后，比特币的集会突然停止了，当特朗普确认对加拿大和墨西哥的进口关税25％，在周一引发了15％的抛售。但是，市场在周三又发生了戏剧性的转折。

Late Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated that President Trump will “probably” reach a compromise with Canada and Mexico in the coming days. Traders responded swiftly, piling into buy orders on optimism that an anticipated tariff rollback could ease economic uncertainty, bolstering risk assets like Bitcoin.

周二晚些时候，美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）表示，特朗普总统将在未来几天与加拿大和墨西哥达成妥协。贸易商迅速做出了回应，以乐观的态度堆积了预期的关税回滚可能会缓解经济不确定性，从而加强了像比特币这样的风险资产。

Within 12 hours of Lutnick’s statement, BTC surged 10%, rallying from its weekly low of $81,400 recorded on Tuesday to reclaim levels above $91,500 by mid-day in U.S. trading. If bullish momentum holds, a close above $90,000 could reinforce a broader breakout attempt, setting the stage for Bitcoin to target new highs.

在卢特尼克（Lutnick）发表声明的12小时内，BTC飙升了10％，从周二记录的每周低点的低至81,400美元的低点集会，到美国中午在美国交易中收回了高于91,500美元的水平。如果看涨的势头持续下去，超过90,000美元以上的接近可能会加强更广泛的突破尝试，为比特币奠定了目标。

Lance Roberts flags Trade war reactions exerting bearish pressure on BTC price action

兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）国旗贸易战争反应对BTC价格行动施加看跌压力

On Wednesday, BTC price reclaimed territories above the $91,500 level as markets reacted to speculations that U.S. President Donald Trump could ease tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico. Bitcoin analyst Lance Roberts published charts showing how U.S. Trade policy has impacted financial markets in recent weeks.

周三，由于市场对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）可以减轻对加拿大和墨西哥征收的关税的猜测，BTC价格回收了高于91,500美元的领土。比特币分析师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）发布了图表，显示了最近几周美国贸易政策如何影响金融市场。

“Trade War 1 vs Trade War 2. So far, the #market is tracing out Trump’s first trade war fairly closely. While no two markets are ever the same, it is worth noting that even though markets declined, they also rallied. The point here is to ignore media headlines and focus on your portfolio.”

“贸易战1 vs贸易战争2。到目前为止，#Market正在相当仔细地追踪特朗普的第一场贸易战。尽管没有两个市场是一样的，但值得注意的是，即使市场下降，它们也集会了。这里的目的是忽略媒体头条并专注于您的投资组合。”

– Lance Roberts, March 5, 2025

- 兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts），2025年3月5日

Diving into the chart he posted, Lance Roberts’ chart draws a striking parallel between the S&P 500’s performance during the 2019 trade war and its 2025 trajectory, illustrating how historical market reactions to U.S. trade tensions could be playing out again.

兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）的图表在他发布的图表中潜入图表上，在2019年贸易战期间标准普尔500指数的表现与2025年轨迹之间的表现相似，这说明了历史市场对美国贸易紧张局势的反应如何再次发挥作用。

In 2019, the market initially rallied before experiencing volatility linked to major trade-related developments.

2019年，市场最初在经历与主要贸易相关发展有关的波动性之前就集结了。

One key moment highlighted in the chart is when former President Trump called off 25% tariffs on Mexico, triggering a strong rally.

图表中强调的一个关键时刻是，前总统特朗普在墨西哥取消了25％的关税，引发了强烈的集会。

Later, news of Trump-Xi trade deal talks fueled further gains, reinforcing the notion of a “Trump put”—the market’s expectation that Trump would eventually ease trade tensions to support equities. This de facto put acted as a backstop, preventing prolonged downturns despite interim sell-offs.

后来，关于特朗普-XI贸易协定谈判的消息加剧了进一步的收益，加强了“特朗普投掷”的概念，这是市场对特朗普最终将缓解贸易紧张张力以支持股票的市场的期望。事实上，这是一个后台，尽管暂停抛售，但仍阻止了长期衰退。

So far in 2025, the S&P 500 has followed a similar script, with a strong start before recent weakness, aligning with the early phases of the 2019 pattern.

到目前为止，在2025年，标准普尔500指数遵循了类似的脚本，在最近的弱点之前，他的脚本很强，与2019年模式的早期阶段保持一致。

This suggests that while the market is experiencing turbulence amid trade concerns, a potential bullish pivot could occur if Trump signals a shift in policy, just as it did in 2019. If history rhymes, Bitcoin could benefit as a risk asset.

这表明，尽管在贸易问题上，市场正在经历湍流，但如果特朗普在2019年的政策变化时，可能会发生一个潜在的看涨枢纽。

BTC Price Outlook on US Trade War

BTC价格前景美国贸易战

However, the bearish case remains compelling. Unlike in 2019, today’s market is contending with structurally higher interest rates, which could dampen any relief rallies. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s policy stance is less accommodative, meaning liquidity injections that cushioned past downturns may not materialize.

但是，看跌案仍然令人信服。与2019年不同，当今的市场与结构上更高的利率竞争，这可能会削弱任何救济集会。此外，美联储的政策立场较不宽容，这意味着流动性的流动性可以缓冲过去的低迷状态。

Ultimately, whether the 2019 pattern continues to play out in full will depend on the next moves from policymakers.

最终，2019年模式是否继续全面发挥作用将取决于决策者的下一步行动。

If trade tensions escalate further without policy relief and risk appetite deteriorates, BTC’s recent gains could be short-lived, exposing the market to deeper corrections.

如果贸易紧张局势进一步升级而没有政策缓解和风险食欲恶化，那么BTC最近的收益可能是短暂的，将市场暴露于更深层的更正。

Conversely, if Trump eases the tariffs this week, both S&P 500 equities and Bitcoin price could be poised for another leg higher. In this case BTC price could hit new all-time highs near $120,000 once U.S. Treasury begins buying BTC and other assets included in the crypto strategic reserve bucket.

相反，如果特朗普本周放松了关税，那么S＆P 500股票和比特币价格都可以预先提高另一支腿。在这种情况下，一旦美国财政部开始购买BTC和加密战略储备存储桶中包含的其他资产，BTC价格可能会达到$ 120,000的新历史高点。