為什麼比特幣（BTC）價格橫盤整理？值得關注的關鍵鏈上指標

比特幣價格在 94,000-96,000 美元範圍內交易已有一周多了。加密貨幣社群一直在等待的 10 萬美元心理水平尚未到來。

The Bitcoin price has been trading in the $94k-96k range for over a week now. While this is still within the bullish trend, many crypto enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting the psychological $100k level.

一周多來，比特幣價格一直在 94,000 美元至 96,000 美元之間波動。雖然這仍處於看漲趨勢之內，但許多加密貨幣愛好者都在熱切等待 10 萬美元的心理水平。

In the latest Santiment report, the crucial on-chain metric that traders should monitor is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator. This indicator offers valuable insights into Bitcoin's market health by comparing its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, which represents the total value of Bitcoin at the price it was last moved on-chain.

在最新的 Santiment 報告中，交易者應監控的關鍵鏈上指標是 MVRV（市場價值與已實現價值）指標。該指標透過將比特幣的市值與其已實現的資本進行比較，為了解比特幣的市場健康狀況提供了寶貴的見解，後者代表了比特幣以其最後一次在鏈上移動的價格計算的總價值。

Traders and analysts often use the MVRV indicator to identify potential market cycles, especially when spotting possible market tops and bottoms. When this indicator reaches certain thresholds, it provides crucial signals about market sentiment and potential price movements.

交易者和分析師經常使用 MVRV 指標來識別潛在的市場週期，尤其是在發現可能的市場頂部和底部時。當該指標達到特定閾值時，它會提供有關市場情緒和潛在價格變動的重要訊號。

For instance, if the MVRV indicator rises above 5%, it usually indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued and a correction is likely on the horizon. This occurs because the average wallet is showing significant profits, which can prompt retail traders to take gains and create downward price pressure.

例如，如果 MVRV 指標升至 5% 以上，通常表示比特幣被高估，並且可能即將出現調整。出現這種情況是因為普通錢包顯示出可觀的利潤，這可能會促使零售交易者獲利並造成價格下行壓力。

According to recent Santiment insights, the average returns of Bitcoin wallets active in the past 30 days provide a more nuanced perspective of the current market condition. The analysis highlights that these wallets show a modest average return of 4.2%. This moderate return suggests that the market has cooled off from its previous excitement.

根據最近的 Santiment 洞察，過去 30 天內活躍的比特幣錢包的平均回報為當前市場狀況提供了更細緻的視角。分析強調，這些錢包的平均報酬率為 4.2%。這種溫和的回報表明市場已經從先前的興奮中降溫。

Breaking down the tweet, we can observe several key points. At levels above 5%, the metric indicates potential market overheating and a possible correction. On the other hand, when it drops below -5%, it signals a potential market bottom where buyers might see an attractive entry point.

仔細分析這則推文，我們可以觀察到幾個關鍵點。當水準高於 5% 時，此指標表示市場潛在過熱並可能出現調整。另一方面，當它跌破-5%時，則表示潛在的市場底部，買家可能會看到一個有吸引力的切入點。

The current market cap fluctuations reflect a more balanced landscape, where recent retail traders who bought at the late November peak are experiencing minor losses. This natural market correction helps flush out speculative buying and brings the market to a more stable state.

目前的市值波動反映了更加平衡的格局，最近在 11 月底高峰買入的散戶交易者正在遭受輕微損失。這種自然的市場調整有助於消除投機性買盤，使市場達到更穩定的狀態。

Considering these factors, the MVRV appears to be in a neutral to mildly negative zone, indicating a relatively healthy market environment. It suggests there isn’t overwhelming speculation nor excessive unrealized gains that might trigger a significant sell-off. The slight dip from the late November peak is being normalized by the market.

考慮到這些因素，MVRV 似乎處於中性至輕度負值區域，表明市場環境相對健康。這表明不存在壓倒性的投機行為，也不存在可能引發大幅拋售的過多未實現收益。市場正在將較 11 月底高峰的小幅下跌視為正常現象。

Traders and investors should continue monitoring these on-chain metrics to gain insights into Bitcoin’s potential short-term movements and overall market sentiment.

交易者和投資者應繼續監控這些鏈上指標，以深入了解比特幣的潛在短期趨勢和整體市場情緒。

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在 X (Twitter)、CoinMarketCap 和 Binance Square 上關注我們，以了解更多每日加密貨幣更新。

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