为什么比特币（BTC）价格横盘整理？值得关注的关键链上指标

比特币价格在 94,000-96,000 美元范围内交易已有一周多了。加密货币社区一直在等待的 10 万美元心理水平尚未到来。

The Bitcoin price has been trading in the $94k-96k range for over a week now. While this is still within the bullish trend, many crypto enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting the psychological $100k level.

一周多以来，比特币价格一直在 94,000 美元至 96,000 美元之间波动。虽然这仍处于看涨趋势之内，但许多加密货币爱好者都在热切等待 10 万美元的心理水平。

In the latest Santiment report, the crucial on-chain metric that traders should monitor is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator. This indicator offers valuable insights into Bitcoin's market health by comparing its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, which represents the total value of Bitcoin at the price it was last moved on-chain.

在最新的 Santiment 报告中，交易者应监控的关键链上指标是 MVRV（市场价值与已实现价值）指标。该指标通过将比特币的市值与其已实现的资本进行比较，为了解比特币的市场健康状况提供了宝贵的见解，后者代表了比特币以其最后一次在链上移动的价格计算的总价值。

Traders and analysts often use the MVRV indicator to identify potential market cycles, especially when spotting possible market tops and bottoms. When this indicator reaches certain thresholds, it provides crucial signals about market sentiment and potential price movements.

交易员和分析师经常使用 MVRV 指标来识别潜在的市场周期，尤其是在发现可能的市场顶部和底部时。当该指标达到特定阈值时，它会提供有关市场情绪和潜在价格变动的重要信号。

For instance, if the MVRV indicator rises above 5%, it usually indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued and a correction is likely on the horizon. This occurs because the average wallet is showing significant profits, which can prompt retail traders to take gains and create downward price pressure.

例如，如果 MVRV 指标升至 5% 以上，通常表明比特币被高估，并且可能即将出现调整。出现这种情况是因为普通钱包显示出可观的利润，这可能会促使零售交易者获利并造成价格下行压力。

According to recent Santiment insights, the average returns of Bitcoin wallets active in the past 30 days provide a more nuanced perspective of the current market condition. The analysis highlights that these wallets show a modest average return of 4.2%. This moderate return suggests that the market has cooled off from its previous excitement.

根据最近的 Santiment 洞察，过去 30 天内活跃的比特币钱包的平均回报为当前市场状况提供了更细致的视角。分析强调，这些钱包的平均回报率为 4.2%。这种温和的回报表明市场已经从之前的兴奋中降温。

Breaking down the tweet, we can observe several key points. At levels above 5%, the metric indicates potential market overheating and a possible correction. On the other hand, when it drops below -5%, it signals a potential market bottom where buyers might see an attractive entry point.

仔细分析这条推文，我们可以观察到几个关键点。当水平高于 5% 时，该指标表明市场潜在过热并可能出现调整。另一方面，当它跌破-5%时，则表明潜在的市场底部，买家可能会看到一个有吸引力的切入点。

The current market cap fluctuations reflect a more balanced landscape, where recent retail traders who bought at the late November peak are experiencing minor losses. This natural market correction helps flush out speculative buying and brings the market to a more stable state.

当前的市值波动反映了更加平衡的格局，最近在 11 月底高峰买入的散户交易者正在遭受轻微损失。这种自然的市场调整有助于消除投机性买盘，使市场达到更加稳定的状态。

Considering these factors, the MVRV appears to be in a neutral to mildly negative zone, indicating a relatively healthy market environment. It suggests there isn’t overwhelming speculation nor excessive unrealized gains that might trigger a significant sell-off. The slight dip from the late November peak is being normalized by the market.

考虑到这些因素，MVRV 似乎处于中性至轻度负值区域，表明市场环境相对健康。这表明不存在压倒性的投机行为，也不存在可能引发大幅抛售的过多未实现收益。市场正在将较 11 月底峰值的小幅下跌视为正常现象。

Traders and investors should continue monitoring these on-chain metrics to gain insights into Bitcoin’s potential short-term movements and overall market sentiment.

交易者和投资者应继续监控这些链上指标，以深入了解比特币的潜在短期走势和整体市场情绪。

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在 X (Twitter)、CoinMarketCap 和 Binance Square 上关注我们，了解更多每日加密货币更新。

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