鯨魚在代幣解鎖前出售卡爾達諾（ADA）—分析

卡爾達諾 (ADA) 鯨魚在過去 30 天內推動加密貨幣價格上漲 270%，現在在 ADA 解鎖之前拋售

Cardano (ADA) price surged over 270% in the past 30 days.

卡爾達諾 (ADA) 價格在過去 30 天內飆升了 270% 以上。

Now, major ADA holders are selling ahead of the ADA unlock scheduled for this week.

現在，主要 ADA 持有者正在計劃於本週 ADA 解鎖之前拋售。

On Monday (2), the net flow of large ADA holders reached 63.58 million coins, indicating a strong buying trend among whales. Net flow measures the difference between tokens bought and sold by these participants. An increasing net flow indicates accumulation, while a decline indicates increasing selling pressure.

週一（2日），ADA大戶淨流量達6,358萬枚，顯示鯨魚購買趨勢強勁。淨流量衡量這些參與者購買和出售的代幣之間的差異。淨流量增加表示吸籌，而淨流量下降表示拋售壓力增加。

Currently, the net inflow has dropped to 7.62 million ADA, according to IntoTheBlock. This suggests that whales have offloaded 55.96 million coins, either to take profits or rebalance their portfolios. At the current price, this sale amounts to a staggering $69 million.

據IntoTheBlock稱，目前ADA淨流入量已降至762萬枚。這表明鯨魚已經拋售了 5596 萬枚代幣，要么是為了獲利，要么是為了重新平衡其投資組合。以目前價格計算，這筆銷售額達到驚人的 6,900 萬美元。

In this sense, the recent sale could be tied to the upcoming token unlock on December 6th.

從這個意義上說，最近的銷售可能與即將於 12 月 6 日解鎖的代幣有關。

Net Flow of Large Cardano Holders. Source: IntoTheBlock

大型卡爾達諾持有者的淨流量。來源：IntoTheBlock

Token unlocks, which release previously restricted assets into circulation, often cause significant price movements by altering supply and demand dynamics.

代幣解鎖將先前受限的資產釋放到流通中，通常會透過改變供需動態而導致價格大幅波動。

According to Tokenomist (formerly Token Unlocks), Cardano is set to release 18.53 million ADA on that date, valued at $22.79 million. This anticipated supply shock could introduce volatility, potentially hindering the altcoin’s ability to maintain an uptrend during this period.

據 Tokenomist（原 Token Unlocks）稱，Cardano 將於當天發行 1853 萬枚 ADA，價值 2279 萬美元。這種預期的供應衝擊可能會帶來波動，從而可能阻礙山寨幣在此期間保持上升趨勢的能力。

Cardano Token Unlock. Source: Tokenomist

卡爾達諾代幣解鎖。來源：Tokenomist

Price prediction

價格預測

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands (BB) have widened, indicating increased volatility. BBs also highlight whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the price touches the upper band, it signals an overbought condition, while contact with the lower band indicates oversold territory. Therefore, the image below confirms the thesis that ADA is overbought.

日線圖上，布林通道（BB）已經擴大，顯示波動性增加。 BB 也強調資產是否超買或超賣。當價格觸及上限時，表示超買狀況，而觸及下限則表示超賣區域。因此，下圖證實了 ADA 超買的論點。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, also points to this scenario. When the RSI reading is above 70, it is overbought. Conversely, when the reading is below 30, it is oversold.

衡量動量的相對強弱指數（RSI）也顯示了這種情況。當 RSI 讀數高於 70 時，即處於超買狀態。反之，當讀數低於30時，則為超賣。

Cardano Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

卡爾達諾每日分析。來源：TradingView

Currently, the RSI is at 82.15, firmly placing ADA in overbought territory. Given this condition, a price correction to $0.92 could be next. However, if whales resume accumulation, the trend could change, potentially pushing the price above $1.33.

目前，RSI 為 82.15，ADA 堅定地處於超買區域。鑑於這種情況，下一步價格可能會調整至 0.92 美元。然而，如果鯨魚恢復增持，趨勢可能會改變，有可能推動價格突破 1.33 美元。