Whales Sell Cardano (ADA) Ahead of Token Unlock – Analysis

Cardano (ADA) whales, who have been instrumental in driving the cryptocurrency's price up 270% in the past 30 days, are now selling ahead of the ADA unlock

Cardano (ADA) price surged over 270% in the past 30 days.

Now, major ADA holders are selling ahead of the ADA unlock scheduled for this week.

On Monday (2), the net flow of large ADA holders reached 63.58 million coins, indicating a strong buying trend among whales. Net flow measures the difference between tokens bought and sold by these participants. An increasing net flow indicates accumulation, while a decline indicates increasing selling pressure.

Currently, the net inflow has dropped to 7.62 million ADA, according to IntoTheBlock. This suggests that whales have offloaded 55.96 million coins, either to take profits or rebalance their portfolios. At the current price, this sale amounts to a staggering $69 million.

In this sense, the recent sale could be tied to the upcoming token unlock on December 6th.

Net Flow of Large Cardano Holders. Source: IntoTheBlock

Token unlocks, which release previously restricted assets into circulation, often cause significant price movements by altering supply and demand dynamics.

According to Tokenomist (formerly Token Unlocks), Cardano is set to release 18.53 million ADA on that date, valued at $22.79 million. This anticipated supply shock could introduce volatility, potentially hindering the altcoin’s ability to maintain an uptrend during this period.

Cardano Token Unlock. Source: Tokenomist

Price prediction

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands (BB) have widened, indicating increased volatility. BBs also highlight whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the price touches the upper band, it signals an overbought condition, while contact with the lower band indicates oversold territory. Therefore, the image below confirms the thesis that ADA is overbought.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, also points to this scenario. When the RSI reading is above 70, it is overbought. Conversely, when the reading is below 30, it is oversold.

Cardano Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

Currently, the RSI is at 82.15, firmly placing ADA in overbought territory. Given this condition, a price correction to $0.92 could be next. However, if whales resume accumulation, the trend could change, potentially pushing the price above $1.33.