比特幣（BTC）的價格攤位低於$ 86,000，黃金的新歷史最高高點為每盎司3,059美元

儘管旗艦加密貨幣努力使$ 86,000大關可持續地超越$ 86,000，但另一方面，黃金打破了所有記錄。

Bitcoin is taking a pause. While the flagship cryptocurrency struggles to sustainably cross the $86,000 mark, gold, on the other hand, is breaking all records. This Thursday, the yellow metal reached a new historic high of $3,059 per ounce, fueled by a tense macroeconomic context.

比特幣正在暫停。儘管旗艦加密貨幣努力使$ 86,000大關可持續地超越$ 86,000，但另一方面，黃金打破了所有記錄。這個星期四，黃金在緊張的宏觀經濟背景下推動了新的歷史高度3,059美元。

Bitcoin: between price stagnation and surge in gold

比特幣：在價格停滯和黃金中的飆升之間

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) stalls below $86,000 while gold sets a new historic record at $3,059 per ounce. This striking contrast reflects a change in sentiment in the markets: investors are retreating to safe havens as risk assets take a pause. Why? Because of Trump.

比特幣（BTC）的價格低於86,000美元，而黃金的價格為每盎司3,059美元的新歷史記錄。這種驚人的對比反映了市場中情感的變化：隨著風險資產暫停，投資者正在撤退到避風港。為什麼？因為特朗普。

Indeed, the United States’ decision to impose a 25% tax on imported vehicles and 100% on Chinese electric vehicles has rekindled fears of a trade war. Meanwhile, the upward revision of the US GDP (3.4% in Q4 2024) and the drop in unemployment claims suggest that the FED might keep interest rates high longer than expected. As a result: investors are abandoning Bitcoin in favor of gold.

確實，美國決定對進口車徵稅25％，中國電動汽車100％重新點燃了對貿易戰的擔憂。同時，美國GDP的上升修訂（第4季度2024年為3.4％）和失業索賠的下降表明，美聯儲的利率可能會比預期的要長。結果：投資者正在放棄比特幣，而不是黃金。

$112,000 for BTC? Not so fast… The real test comes in April

BTC $ 112,000？不太快……真正的測試是在四月進行的

While the market capitalization of gold has surged by over $3 trillion in a year, according to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin struggles to continue its rally. Technical analysts, however, see a bullish pattern (pennant) that could propel BTC to $91,000, even $112,000 according to some. But short-term fundamentals could contradict these forecasts.

根據Kobeissi的信，儘管黃金的市值一年飆升了3萬億美元，但比特幣努力繼續進行集會。但是，技術分析師看到的看漲模式（pennant）可能會使BTC降至91,000美元，甚至是112,000美元。但是短期基本面可能與這些預測相矛盾。

Moreover, the halving in April 2024 has already halved the mining rewards (3.125 BTC per block). Added to this, the mining difficulty for Bitcoin is expected to jump by 16.05% by April 4, reaching 132.02 TH/s. For many miners, especially the less well-equipped ones, this means profitability is in free fall. Some may be forced to sell their BTC, creating bearish pressure on the market.

此外，2024年4月的減半已經使採礦獎勵減半（每塊3.125 BTC）。除此之外，比特幣的採礦難度預計將在4月4日到4月4日增長16.05％，達到132.02 TH/s。對於許多礦工，尤其是設備齊全的礦工，這意味著盈利能力是自由跌倒的。有些人可能被迫出售其BTC，在市場上造成看跌壓力。

Between macroeconomic tensions, soaring gold prices, and increasing pressure on miners, April could mark a critical turning point for Bitcoin. While technical projections remain optimistic, short-term fundamentals remind us that the path to $100,000 will be neither linear… nor guaranteed.

在宏觀經濟緊張局勢，高昂的黃金價格和對礦工的壓力增加之間，四月可能標誌著比特幣的關鍵轉折點。儘管技術預測仍然樂觀，但短期基本面提醒我們，達到100,000美元的途徑既不是線性的……也不會保證。