比特币（BTC）的价格摊位低于$ 86,000，黄金的新历史最高高点为每盎司3,059美元

尽管旗舰加密货币努力使$ 86,000大关可持续地超越$ 86,000，但另一方面，黄金却打破了所有记录。

Bitcoin is taking a pause. While the flagship cryptocurrency struggles to sustainably cross the $86,000 mark, gold, on the other hand, is breaking all records. This Thursday, the yellow metal reached a new historic high of $3,059 per ounce, fueled by a tense macroeconomic context.

比特币正在暂停。尽管旗舰加密货币努力使$ 86,000大关可持续地超越$ 86,000，但另一方面，黄金却打破了所有记录。这个星期四，黄金在紧张的宏观经济背景下推动了新的历史高度3,059美元。

Bitcoin: between price stagnation and surge in gold

比特币：在价格停滞和黄金中的飙升之间

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) stalls below $86,000 while gold sets a new historic record at $3,059 per ounce. This striking contrast reflects a change in sentiment in the markets: investors are retreating to safe havens as risk assets take a pause. Why? Because of Trump.

比特币（BTC）的价格低于86,000美元，而黄金的价格为每盎司3,059美元的新历史记录。这种惊人的对比反映了市场中情感的变化：随着风险资产暂停，投资者正在撤退到避风港。为什么？因为特朗普。

Indeed, the United States’ decision to impose a 25% tax on imported vehicles and 100% on Chinese electric vehicles has rekindled fears of a trade war. Meanwhile, the upward revision of the US GDP (3.4% in Q4 2024) and the drop in unemployment claims suggest that the FED might keep interest rates high longer than expected. As a result: investors are abandoning Bitcoin in favor of gold.

确实，美国决定对进口车征税25％，中国电动汽车100％重新点燃了对贸易战的担忧。同时，美国GDP的上升修订（第4季度2024年为3.4％）和失业索赔的下降表明，美联储的利率可能会比预期的要长。结果：投资者正在放弃比特币，而不是黄金。

$112,000 for BTC? Not so fast… The real test comes in April

BTC $ 112,000？不太快……真正的测试是在四月进行的

While the market capitalization of gold has surged by over $3 trillion in a year, according to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin struggles to continue its rally. Technical analysts, however, see a bullish pattern (pennant) that could propel BTC to $91,000, even $112,000 according to some. But short-term fundamentals could contradict these forecasts.

根据Kobeissi的信，尽管黄金的市值一年飙升了3万亿美元，但比特币努力继续进行集会。但是，技术分析师看到的看涨模式（pennant）可能会使BTC降至91,000美元，甚至是112,000美元。但是短期基本面可能与这些预测相矛盾。

Moreover, the halving in April 2024 has already halved the mining rewards (3.125 BTC per block). Added to this, the mining difficulty for Bitcoin is expected to jump by 16.05% by April 4, reaching 132.02 TH/s. For many miners, especially the less well-equipped ones, this means profitability is in free fall. Some may be forced to sell their BTC, creating bearish pressure on the market.

此外，2024年4月的减半已经使采矿奖励减半（每块3.125 BTC）。除此之外，比特币的采矿难度预计将在4月4日到4月4日增长16.05％，达到132.02 TH/s。对于许多矿工，尤其是设备齐全的矿工，这意味着盈利能力是自由跌倒的。有些人可能被迫出售其BTC，在市场上造成看跌压力。

Between macroeconomic tensions, soaring gold prices, and increasing pressure on miners, April could mark a critical turning point for Bitcoin. While technical projections remain optimistic, short-term fundamentals remind us that the path to $100,000 will be neither linear… nor guaranteed.

在宏观经济紧张局势，高昂的黄金价格和对矿工的压力增加之间，四月可能标志着比特币的关键转折点。尽管技术预测仍然乐观，但短期基本面提醒我们，达到100,000美元的途径既不是线性的……也不会保证。