分析師警告稱，比特幣（BTC）價格飆升至新高，但要做好波動準備

美國大選的緊張局勢相當高，但川普的勝利成為推動比特幣創下新高的巨大催化劑。

Bitcoin price has surged to new highs following the U.S elections. However, a closer look at key on-chain metrics reveals a scenario that might lead to a strong pullback.

美國大選後，比特幣價格飆升至新高。然而，仔細研究關鍵的鏈上指標就會發現一種可能導致大幅回調的情況。

Bitcoin Surges To New Highs But…

比特幣飆升至新高但是…

Bitcoin price reacted positively to a Trump win in the U.S presidential elections as was widely anticipated by the crypto community. BTC price surged to new highs above $63,000.

正如加密貨幣社區普遍預期的那樣，比特幣價格對川普在美國總統選舉中獲勝做出了積極反應。 BTC 價格飆升至 63,000 美元以上的新高。

Related Reading | Bitcoin Surges Past $63K, Pro Trump Narrative Plays Out

相關閱讀 |比特幣飆升至 6.3 萬美元以上，支持川普的敘事上演

Many expected Bitcoin to rally following a favorable election outcome, and that scenario has already played out. Anticipation for more upside in the coming weeks or months is high, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that smooth sailing lies ahead.

許多人預計比特幣會在有利的選舉結果後反彈，而這種情況已經上演。人們對未來幾週或幾個月出現更多上漲的預期很高，但這並不一定意味著未來會一帆風順。

Historically, every time Bitcoin price has broken out into new territory, it has also been met with a high degree of volatility. This is because breakouts are usually driven by bullish hype and expectations tend to be set high. The above description fits the current situation.

從歷史上看，每次比特幣價格突破新領域時，都會遇到高度波動。這是因為突破通常是由看漲炒作推動的，而且預期往往很高。上述描述符合目前的情況。

Bitcoin Open Interest Soars To New Highs, But..

比特幣持倉量飆升至新高，但是..

While new highs tend to factor in periods of high excitement, price action also tends to be highly volatile. This is largely due to overleveraged trades being liquidated, and this may already be kicking in.

雖然新高往往會帶來高度興奮的時期，但價格走勢也往往會高度波動。這主要是由於過度槓桿化的交易被清算，而且這種情況可能已經開始發生。

Bitcoin open interest also surged to new highs. A surge in open interest usually goes hand-in-hand with leverage, and in BTC’s case, it is likely leverage to the upside. An expected wave of sell pressure sweeps through this liquidity, leaving a trail of massive losses.

比特幣持倉量也飆升至新高。未平倉合約的激增通常與槓桿作用密切相關，就 BTC 而言，很可能是槓桿作用導致的上行。預期的拋售壓力浪潮席捲了這種流動性，留下了巨大的損失。

The liquidations fuel the massive pullbacks that have historically been observed in volatile conditions. Bitcoin’s latest situation fits the characteristics that lead to these types of volatile price swings that wipe out overleveraged positions.

清算加劇了歷史上在動盪的環境下觀察到的大規模回調。比特幣的最新情況符合導致此類價格波動的特徵，從而消除了過度槓桿化的部位。

Latest large holder flows may already be hinting at such an outcome.

最新的大股東流動可能已經暗示了這樣的結果。

Large Holder Flows May Be Signaling A Pullback

大量持有者流量可能預示著回調

Large holder inflows added to the bullish momentum, surging from 208 BTC on 3 November to 43,870 BTC by 4 November. This represents over $3 billion worth pf Bitcoin flowing into large addresses.

大戶流入增加了看漲勢頭，從 11 月 3 日的 208 BTC 飆升至 11 月 4 日的 43,870 BTC。這意味著流入大地址的比特幣價值超過 30 億美元。

However, large holder inflows then dropped to 11,460 BTC by 5 November, which indicates a significant slowdown. Meanwhile, large holder outflows also surged, which means that a significant number of whales have been taking profits.

然而，到 11 月 5 日，大額持有者流入量降至 11,460 BTC，這表明大幅放緩。同時，大戶的資金流出也激增，這意味著大量鯨魚已經獲利了結。

Bitcoin registered zero outflows on 2 November, but that figure surged to 10,290 BTC by 5 November.

11 月 2 日，比特幣的流出量為零，但到 11 月 5 日，這一數字飆升至 10,290 BTC。

It’s worth noting that this data may be subject to change, especially since it was taken before the election results. This meant that the market may have shifted sentiment in favor of more demand from whales.

值得注意的是，這些數據可能會發生變化，特別是因為它是在選舉結果之前取得的。這意味著市場情緒可能已經轉向有利於鯨魚的更多需求。

Volatility May Hit Hard

波動性可能會受到嚴重打擊

One relative measure of demand in the market for BTC is Bitcoin ETFs. According to Looksonchain data on 6 November, Bitcoin had a net outflow of -3,755 BTC, which was equivalent to $279.97 million in outflows at the time.

衡量比特幣市場需求的一個相對指標是比特幣 ETF。根據Looksonchain 11月6日數據顯示，比特幣淨流出-3,755 BTC，相當於當時流出2.7997億美元。

On the bright side, the Bitcoin marketcap crossed $1.5 trillion at the last check, which put it ahead of Meta, which had a marketcap of $1.44 trillion, and secured the 9th spot on the top 10 largest assets by market cap.

好的一面是，比特幣市值在上次檢查中突破了 1.5 兆美元，領先市值 1.44 兆美元的 Meta，並在市值排名前 10 的資產中排名第九。