分析师警告称，比特币（BTC）价格飙升至新高，但要做好波动准备

美国大选的紧张局势相当高，但特朗普的胜利成为推动比特币创下新高的巨大催化剂。

Bitcoin price has surged to new highs following the U.S elections. However, a closer look at key on-chain metrics reveals a scenario that might lead to a strong pullback.

美国大选后，比特币价格飙升至新高。然而，仔细研究关键的链上指标就会发现一种可能导致大幅回调的情况。

Bitcoin Surges To New Highs But…

比特币飙升至新高但是……

Bitcoin price reacted positively to a Trump win in the U.S presidential elections as was widely anticipated by the crypto community. BTC price surged to new highs above $63,000.

正如加密货币社区普遍预期的那样，比特币价格对特朗普在美国总统选举中获胜做出了积极反应。 BTC 价格飙升至 63,000 美元以上的新高。

Related Reading | Bitcoin Surges Past $63K, Pro Trump Narrative Plays Out

相关阅读 |比特币飙升至 6.3 万美元以上，支持特朗普的叙事上演

Many expected Bitcoin to rally following a favorable election outcome, and that scenario has already played out. Anticipation for more upside in the coming weeks or months is high, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that smooth sailing lies ahead.

许多人预计比特币会在有利的选举结果后反弹，而这种情况已经上演。人们对未来几周或几个月出现更多上涨的预期很高，但这并不一定意味着未来会一帆风顺。

Historically, every time Bitcoin price has broken out into new territory, it has also been met with a high degree of volatility. This is because breakouts are usually driven by bullish hype and expectations tend to be set high. The above description fits the current situation.

从历史上看，每次比特币价格突破新领域时，都会遇到高度波动。这是因为突破通常是由看涨炒作推动的，并且预期往往很高。上述描述符合目前的情况。

Bitcoin Open Interest Soars To New Highs, But..

比特币持仓量飙升至新高，但是..

While new highs tend to factor in periods of high excitement, price action also tends to be highly volatile. This is largely due to overleveraged trades being liquidated, and this may already be kicking in.

虽然新高往往会带来高度兴奋的时期，但价格走势也往往会高度波动。这主要是由于过度杠杆化的交易被清算，而且这种情况可能已经开始发生。

Bitcoin open interest also surged to new highs. A surge in open interest usually goes hand-in-hand with leverage, and in BTC’s case, it is likely leverage to the upside. An expected wave of sell pressure sweeps through this liquidity, leaving a trail of massive losses.

比特币持仓量也飙升至新高。未平仓合约的激增通常与杠杆作用密切相关，就 BTC 而言，很可能是杠杆作用导致的上行。预期的抛售压力浪潮席卷了流动性，留下了巨额损失。

The liquidations fuel the massive pullbacks that have historically been observed in volatile conditions. Bitcoin’s latest situation fits the characteristics that lead to these types of volatile price swings that wipe out overleveraged positions.

清算加剧了历史上在动荡的环境下观察到的大规模回调。比特币的最新情况符合导致此类价格波动的特征，从而消除了过度杠杆化的头寸。

Latest large holder flows may already be hinting at such an outcome.

最新的大股东流动可能已经暗示了这样的结果。

Large Holder Flows May Be Signaling A Pullback

大量持有者流动可能预示着回调

Large holder inflows added to the bullish momentum, surging from 208 BTC on 3 November to 43,870 BTC by 4 November. This represents over $3 billion worth pf Bitcoin flowing into large addresses.

大户流入增加了看涨势头，从 11 月 3 日的 208 BTC 飙升至 11 月 4 日的 43,870 BTC。这意味着流入大地址的比特币价值超过 30 亿美元。

However, large holder inflows then dropped to 11,460 BTC by 5 November, which indicates a significant slowdown. Meanwhile, large holder outflows also surged, which means that a significant number of whales have been taking profits.

然而，到 11 月 5 日，大额持有者流入量降至 11,460 BTC，这表明大幅放缓。与此同时，大户的资金流出也激增，这意味着大量鲸鱼已经获利了结。

Bitcoin registered zero outflows on 2 November, but that figure surged to 10,290 BTC by 5 November.

11 月 2 日，比特币的流出量为零，但到 11 月 5 日，这一数字飙升至 10,290 BTC。

It’s worth noting that this data may be subject to change, especially since it was taken before the election results. This meant that the market may have shifted sentiment in favor of more demand from whales.

值得注意的是，这些数据可能会发生变化，特别是因为它是在选举结果之前获取的。这意味着市场情绪可能已经转向有利于鲸鱼的更多需求。

Volatility May Hit Hard

波动性可能会受到严重打击

One relative measure of demand in the market for BTC is Bitcoin ETFs. According to Looksonchain data on 6 November, Bitcoin had a net outflow of -3,755 BTC, which was equivalent to $279.97 million in outflows at the time.

衡量比特币市场需求的一种相对指标是比特币 ETF。据Looksonchain 11月6日数据显示，比特币净流出-3,755 BTC，相当于当时流出2.7997亿美元。

On the bright side, the Bitcoin marketcap crossed $1.5 trillion at the last check, which put it ahead of Meta, which had a marketcap of $1.44 trillion, and secured the 9th spot on the top 10 largest assets by market cap.

好的一面是，比特币市值在上次检查中突破了 1.5 万亿美元，领先于市值 1.44 万亿美元的 Meta，并在市值排名前 10 的资产中排名第九。