比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：市場會重回 10.8 萬美元的歷史高點嗎？

今年以來，比特幣價格一直無法重回108,230美元的歷史高點。這降低了代幣短期持有者（STH）的獲利能力，對其價格造成更大的下行壓力。

Bitcoin’s price has failed to revisit its record high of $108,230 since the beginning of the year. This has reduced the profitability of the coin’s short-term holders (those who have held their coins for less than 155 days), putting more downward pressure on its price.

比特幣價格自年初以來未能重回歷史高點 108,230 美元。這降低了代幣短期持有者（持有代幣少於 155 天的人）的獲利能力，對其價格造成更大的下行壓力。

As demand leans further, BTC’s price could see new declines. Here’s why.

隨著需求進一步傾斜，比特幣的價格可能會出現新的下跌。原因如下。

Bitcoin short-term holders count their losses

比特幣短期持有者計算自己的損失

In a recent report, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk noted a decline in the profitability of BTC investments for STHs.

在最近的報告中，化名 CryptoQuant 分析師 Crazyblockk 指出，比特幣投資 STH 的獲利能力下降。

The analyst assessed the profitability levels for all Bitcoin age bands and found that “following Bitcoin’s rally to the $108,000 level and the subsequent failure to reclaim this critical price point, the profitability margin for short-term holders has declined substantially.”

該分析師評估了所有比特幣年齡段的盈利水平，發現“在比特幣漲至 108,000 美元水平之後，隨後未能奪回這一關鍵價格點，短期持有者的盈利空間大幅下降。”

BeInCrypto’s analysis of the coin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio for its STHs also confirms the analyst’s claim. According to CryptoQuant, this has maintained a downward trend since January 2.

BeInCrypto 對代幣 STH 的支出產出利潤率的分析也證實了分析師的說法。據 CryptoQuant 稱，自 1 月 2 日以來，這一數字一直保持下降趨勢。

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) gauges the profitability of short-term holders of a particular crypto asset. It generally offers insights into whether investors who have held a particular asset for less than 155 days are in a profitable or虧損的位置。

短期持有者支出產出利潤率（STH-SOPR）衡量特定加密資產短期持有者的獲利能力。它通常可以洞察持有特定資產少於 155 天的投資者是否處於盈利或虧損位置。

When its value decreases, it means that short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss rather than at a profit, reflecting declining market confidence among recent buyers, which suggests weaker demand for the flagship coin.

當其價值下跌時，意味著短期比特幣持有者正在虧損而不是盈利，反映出近期買家的市場信心下降，這表明對旗艦貨幣的需求疲軟。

On how this may impact BTC’s price, Crazzyblockk noted:

關於這可能如何影響 BTC 的價格，Crazyblockk 指出：

“A drop in profitability for short-term holders often provides a clear signal of weakening market demand and bearish sentiment over the short and medium term. Therefore, under current conditions, this suggests an elevated likelihood of price corrections driven by reduced demand and subdued performance.”

「短期持有者的獲利能力下降通常會發出一個明確的訊號，顯示中短期內市場需求疲軟和看跌情緒。因此，在目前的情況下，這表明需求減少和業績低迷導致價格調整的可能性增加。

BTC price prediction: Is a decline to $91,000 on the cards?

BTC 價格預測：是否可能跌至 91,000 美元？

BTC’s price is currently hovering around the $100,943 level. If selling pressure intensifies due to short-term holders facing increasing losses, it could lead to a drop in the coin’s price to $91,488.

BTC 的價格目前徘徊在 100,943 美元水平附近。如果由於短期持有者面臨更大的損失而導致拋售壓力加劇，則可能導致代幣價格跌至 91,488 美元。

However, if sentiment shifts and BTC witnesses a resurgence in new demand, this may propel the Bitcoin price past the $100,000 level and toward its all-time high of $108,230.

然而，如果情緒發生變化並且 BTC 見證了新需求的復甦，這可能會推動比特幣價格突破 100,000 美元的水平，並達到 108,230 美元的歷史高點。