比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：市场会重回 10.8 万美元的历史高点吗？

今年以来，比特币价格一直未能重回108,230美元的历史高点。这降低了代币短期持有者（STH）的盈利能力，对其价格造成更大的下行压力。

Bitcoin’s price has failed to revisit its record high of $108,230 since the beginning of the year. This has reduced the profitability of the coin’s short-term holders (those who have held their coins for less than 155 days), putting more downward pressure on its price.

比特币价格自年初以来未能重回历史高点 108,230 美元。这降低了代币短期持有者（持有代币少于 155 天的人）的盈利能力，对其价格造成更大的下行压力。

As demand leans further, BTC’s price could see new declines. Here’s why.

随着需求进一步倾斜，比特币的价格可能会出现新的下跌。原因如下。

Bitcoin short-term holders count their losses

比特币短期持有者计算自己的损失

In a recent report, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk noted a decline in the profitability of BTC investments for STHs.

在最近的一份报告中，化名 CryptoQuant 分析师 Crazyblockk 指出，比特币投资 STH 的盈利能力下降。

The analyst assessed the profitability levels for all Bitcoin age bands and found that “following Bitcoin’s rally to the $108,000 level and the subsequent failure to reclaim this critical price point, the profitability margin for short-term holders has declined substantially.”

该分析师评估了所有比特币年龄段的盈利水平，发现“在比特币涨至 108,000 美元水平之后，随后未能夺回这一关键价格点，短期持有者的盈利空间大幅下降。”

BeInCrypto’s analysis of the coin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio for its STHs also confirms the analyst’s claim. According to CryptoQuant, this has maintained a downward trend since January 2.

BeInCrypto 对代币 STH 的支出产出利润率的分析也证实了分析师的说法。据 CryptoQuant 称，自 1 月 2 日以来，这一数字一直保持下降趋势。

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) gauges the profitability of short-term holders of a particular crypto asset. It generally offers insights into whether investors who have held a particular asset for less than 155 days are in a profitable or虧損的位置。

短期持有者支出产出利润率（STH-SOPR）衡量特定加密资产短期持有者的盈利能力。它通常可以洞察持有特定资产少于 155 天的投资者是否处于盈利或亏损位置。

When its value decreases, it means that short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss rather than at a profit, reflecting declining market confidence among recent buyers, which suggests weaker demand for the flagship coin.

当其价值下跌时，意味着短期比特币持有者正在亏损而不是盈利，反映出近期买家的市场信心下降，这表明对旗舰货币的需求疲软。

On how this may impact BTC’s price, Crazzyblockk noted:

关于这可能如何影响 BTC 的价格，Crazyblockk 指出：

“A drop in profitability for short-term holders often provides a clear signal of weakening market demand and bearish sentiment over the short and medium term. Therefore, under current conditions, this suggests an elevated likelihood of price corrections driven by reduced demand and subdued performance.”

“短期持有者的盈利能力下降通常会发出一个明确的信号，表明中短期内市场需求疲软和看跌情绪。因此，在目前的情况下，这表明需求减少和业绩低迷导致价格调整的可能性增加。”

BTC price prediction: Is a decline to $91,000 on the cards?

BTC 价格预测：是否可能跌至 91,000 美元？

BTC’s price is currently hovering around the $100,943 level. If selling pressure intensifies due to short-term holders facing increasing losses, it could lead to a drop in the coin’s price to $91,488.

BTC 的价格目前徘徊在 100,943 美元水平附近。如果由于短期持有者面临更大的损失而导致抛售压力加剧，则可能导致代币价格跌至 91,488 美元。

However, if sentiment shifts and BTC witnesses a resurgence in new demand, this may propel the Bitcoin price past the $100,000 level and toward its all-time high of $108,230.

然而，如果情绪发生变化并且 BTC 见证了新需求的复苏，这可能会推动比特币价格突破 100,000 美元的水平，并达到 108,230 美元的历史高点。