比特幣（BTC）價格預測：如果散戶重新進入市場會發生什麼事？

在上週比特幣 [BTC] 令人印象深刻的反彈推升至 99,645 美元的歷史高點之後，該資產現已進入調整階段。這標誌著較峰值下降 5.6%

Bitcoin’s recent rally to record highs has been a key talking point in the crypto market. After reaching an all-time high of $99,645 last week, BTC’s price has entered a correction phase.

比特幣最近上漲至歷史新高一直是加密貨幣市場的關鍵話題。在上週觸及歷史高點 99,645 美元後，BTC 價格已進入回檔階段。

At press time, Bitcoin’s price had dropped by 5.6% from its peak, trading at $93,602, with a 4.3% decline in the past 24 hours. This correction comes as the world’s largest cryptocurrency inches closer to the psychologically significant six-digit price level of $100,000.

截至發稿，比特幣價格已較高峰下跌 5.6%，報 93,602 美元，過去 24 小時跌幅為 4.3%。這次調整發生之際，世界上最大的加密貨幣正在接近具有心理意義的六位數價格水準 10 萬美元。

As BTC’s price continues to make headlines, market analysts are closely examining key metrics to gauge what lies ahead. One crucial aspect to consider is retail trader participation in Bitcoin’s price movements.

隨著比特幣的價格繼續成為頭條新聞，市場分析師正在仔細研究關鍵指標，以判斷未來的趨勢。需要考慮的一個重要面向是零售交易者對比特幣價格走勢的參與。

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Woominkyu, a key observation is that retail traders have yet to play a substantial role in this price surge.

CryptoQuant 分析師 Woominkyu 表示，一個重要的觀察結果是，零售交易者尚未在這次價格飆升中發揮重要作用。

The Korea Premium Index, which reflects retail participation, remained below -0.5 at the time of writing, indicating that retail activity has not been a major driver of the recent price surge.

截至撰寫本文時，反映零售參與度的韓國溢價指數仍低於-0.5，顯示零售活動並不是近期價格飆升的主要驅動力。

Historically, the Korea Premium Index has often shown significant spikes before Bitcoin reaches a price peak, highlighting the importance of monitoring this indicator to identify potential price tops.

從歷史上看，韓國溢價指數經常在比特幣達到價格高峰之前大幅上漲，這凸顯了監控該指標以識別潛在價格頂部的重要性。

The subdued retail involvement suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally is largely being driven by institutional participation or other factors, leaving room for additional momentum once retail traders reenter the market.

散戶參與度低表明，比特幣當前的上漲主要是由機構參與或其他因素推動的，一旦散戶交易者重新進入市場，就會留下額外動力的空間。

Examining Bitcoin’s exchange outflows and Open Interest provides further insights into the market dynamics.

檢查比特幣的交易流出和未平倉合約可以進一步洞察市場動態。

According to data from CryptoQuant, there has been a significant trend in Bitcoin’s exchange outflows. Recently, the metric recorded a large spike, with more than 75,000 BTC outflowing from exchanges on the 25th of November.

CryptoQuant的數據顯示，比特幣的交易所流出趨勢明顯。最近，該指標出現大幅飆升，11 月 25 日有超過 75,000 BTC 從交易所流出。

Although this figure has since declined to around 31,000 BTC at press time, the number was still substantial, especially considering that the day is just starting.

儘管截至發稿時這一數字已下降至 31,000 BTC 左右，但這個數字仍然很大，特別是考慮到這一天才剛剛開始。

This trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges indicates that investors may be opting for self-custody, which could signal long-term holding intentions rather than short-term selling pressure.

比特幣離開交易所的趨勢表明，投資者可能會選擇自我託管，這可能預示著長期持有意圖，而不是短期拋售壓力。

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s open interest metrics paint a mixed picture.

另一方面，比特幣的未平倉合約指標描繪了一幅複雜的圖像。

According to Coinglass, Bitcoin’s Open Interest value decreased by 4.55% to $60.37 billion, signaling a potential cooling in leveraged positions.

根據 Coinglass 的數據，比特幣的未平倉合約價值下降 4.55% 至 603.7 億美元，顯示槓桿部位可能會降溫。

However, the Open Interest surged by an impressive 62.58%, reaching $132.86 billion.

然而，未平倉合約卻暴增 62.58%，達 1,328.6 億美元。

This disparity indicates that while the total value of contracts has declined, there is an increase in the number of active positions in the market.

這種差異表明，雖然合約總價值有所下降，但市場上的活躍頭寸數量有所增加。

This rise in volume could suggest heightened market activity, with traders opening positions in anticipation of further price movements.

成交量的增加可能表示市場活動加劇，交易者因預期價格進一步波動而開倉。

However, the decline in the overall value of these positions might imply caution among larger investors.

然而，這些頭寸整體價值的下降可能意味著大型投資者會持謹慎態度。