比特币（BTC）价格预测：如果散户重新进入市场会发生什么？

在上周比特币 [BTC] 令人印象深刻的反弹推升至 99,645 美元的历史高点之后，该资产现已进入调整阶段。这标志着较峰值下降 5.6%

Bitcoin’s recent rally to record highs has been a key talking point in the crypto market. After reaching an all-time high of $99,645 last week, BTC’s price has entered a correction phase.

比特币最近上涨至历史新高一直是加密货币市场的一个关键话题。在上周触及历史高点 99,645 美元后，BTC 价格已进入回调阶段。

At press time, Bitcoin’s price had dropped by 5.6% from its peak, trading at $93,602, with a 4.3% decline in the past 24 hours. This correction comes as the world’s largest cryptocurrency inches closer to the psychologically significant six-digit price level of $100,000.

截至发稿，比特币价格已较峰值下跌 5.6%，报 93,602 美元，过去 24 小时跌幅为 4.3%。此次调整发生之际，世界上最大的加密货币正在接近具有心理意义的六位数价格水平 100,000 美元。

As BTC’s price continues to make headlines, market analysts are closely examining key metrics to gauge what lies ahead. One crucial aspect to consider is retail trader participation in Bitcoin’s price movements.

随着比特币的价格继续成为头条新闻，市场分析师正在仔细研究关键指标，以判断未来的走势。需要考虑的一个重要方面是零售交易者对比特币价格走势的参与。

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Woominkyu, a key observation is that retail traders have yet to play a substantial role in this price surge.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Woominkyu 表示，一个重要的观察结果是，零售交易者尚未在这次价格飙升中发挥重要作用。

The Korea Premium Index, which reflects retail participation, remained below -0.5 at the time of writing, indicating that retail activity has not been a major driver of the recent price surge.

截至撰写本文时，反映零售参与度的韩国溢价指数仍低于-0.5，表明零售活动并不是近期价格飙升的主要驱动力。

Historically, the Korea Premium Index has often shown significant spikes before Bitcoin reaches a price peak, highlighting the importance of monitoring this indicator to identify potential price tops.

从历史上看，韩国溢价指数经常在比特币达到价格峰值之前出现大幅上涨，这凸显了监控该指标以识别潜在价格顶部的重要性。

The subdued retail involvement suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally is largely being driven by institutional participation or other factors, leaving room for additional momentum once retail traders reenter the market.

散户参与度低表明，比特币当前的上涨主要是由机构参与或其他因素推动的，一旦散户交易者重新进入市场，就会留下额外动力的空间。

Examining Bitcoin’s exchange outflows and Open Interest provides further insights into the market dynamics.

检查比特币的交易流出和未平仓合约可以进一步洞察市场动态。

According to data from CryptoQuant, there has been a significant trend in Bitcoin’s exchange outflows. Recently, the metric recorded a large spike, with more than 75,000 BTC outflowing from exchanges on the 25th of November.

CryptoQuant的数据显示，比特币的交易所流出趋势明显。最近，该指标出​​现大幅飙升，11 月 25 日有超过 75,000 BTC 从交易所流出。

Although this figure has since declined to around 31,000 BTC at press time, the number was still substantial, especially considering that the day is just starting.

尽管截至发稿时这一数字已下降至 31,000 BTC 左右，但这个数字仍然很大，特别是考虑到这一天才刚刚开始。

This trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges indicates that investors may be opting for self-custody, which could signal long-term holding intentions rather than short-term selling pressure.

比特币离开交易所的趋势表明，投资者可能会选择自我托管，这可能预示着长期持有意图，而不是短期抛售压力。

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s open interest metrics paint a mixed picture.

另一方面，比特币的未平仓合约指标描绘了一幅复杂的图景。

According to Coinglass, Bitcoin’s Open Interest value decreased by 4.55% to $60.37 billion, signaling a potential cooling in leveraged positions.

根据 Coinglass 的数据，比特币的未平仓合约价值下降 4.55% 至 603.7 亿美元，表明杠杆头寸可能会降温。

However, the Open Interest surged by an impressive 62.58%, reaching $132.86 billion.

然而，未平仓合约却猛增 62.58%，达到 1,328.6 亿美元。

This disparity indicates that while the total value of contracts has declined, there is an increase in the number of active positions in the market.

这种差异表明，虽然合约总价值有所下降，但市场上的活跃头寸数量有所增加。

This rise in volume could suggest heightened market activity, with traders opening positions in anticipation of further price movements.

成交量的增加可能表明市场活动加剧，交易者因预期价格进一步波动而开仓。

However, the decline in the overall value of these positions might imply caution among larger investors.

然而，这些头寸整体价值的下降可能意味着大型投资者会持谨慎态度。