比特幣（BTC）價格預測：儘管有超買情況，多頭仍會繼續佔據主導地位嗎？

AMBCrypto 先前曾研究過，如果比特幣在達到最近的歷史高點後回調，則多頭清算的可能性。好吧，儘管超買了

Despite being overbought, sell pressure remained weak across the board and at press time, BTC holders were still going strong.

儘管已經超買，但拋售壓力仍然全面疲弱，截至發稿時，比特幣持有者仍然強勁。

One of the main reasons why Bitcoin sell pressure has not taken over is because market confidence was still strong after the recent top. Heavy Bitcoin ETF inflows in the last 24 hours contributed to this. ETF flows have proved to be a relatively accurate measure of market confidence. In fact, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas,

比特幣拋售壓力尚未接手的主要原因之一是因為在近期見頂後市場信心仍然強勁。過去 24 小時內比特幣 ETF 的大量流入造成了這種情況。事實證明，ETF 流量是衡量市場信心的相對準確的指標。事實上，根據彭博社的 Eric Balchunas 的說法，

“Bitcoin ETFs took in a record-smashing $1.4b yesterday (the Trump effect). $IBIT alone was +$1.1b. That’s +$6.7b in past mo and $25.5b YTD. All told they feasted on about 18k btc in one day (vs 450 mined) and are now 93% of the way to passing Satoshi’s 1.1mil btc.”

「昨天，比特幣 ETF 的收入達到了創紀錄的 1.4 億美元（川普效應）。僅 $IBIT 就為 +$1.1b。過去一個月為 +$6.7b，年初至今為 $25.5b。總而言之，他們一天內收穫了約 18,000 枚 BTC（相比之下，開採了 450 枚），現在已經超過中本聰 110 萬枚 BTC 的 93%。

The surge in ETF inflows may push Bitcoin to greater highs. A recent cryptoQuant analysis recently looked into the possibility of such an outcome forming a short squeeze. According to the analysis, while the Open Interest was high, the funding rates were negative.

ETF 流入的激增可能會將比特幣推向更高的高點。最近的一項 cryptoQuant 分析研究了這種結果形成軋空的可能性。據分析，雖然未平倉量很高，但資金利率卻為負。

Negative funding rates historically indicate a shift in market sentiment, specifically, to a bearish outlook in the derivatives segment. This shift was supported by Coinglass’s BTC long/short ratio which revealed that shorts were higher than longs over the last 3 days.

從歷史上看，負融資利率顯示市場情緒轉變，特別是衍生性商品領域的悲觀前景。這一轉變得到了 Coinglass 的 BTC 多頭/空頭比率的支持，該比率顯示過去 3 個天空頭數量高於多頭數量。

This surge in short positions was likely because derivatives traders anticipated the previous top to act as a resistance level. Or at least short-term profit taking to trigger another pullback. However, shorts would be at risk of liquidations if the price pushes up.

空頭部位激增可能是因為衍生性商品交易員預計先前的頂部將成為阻力位。或至少是短期獲利了結以引發另一次回檔。然而，如果價格上漲，空頭將面臨清算的風險。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Open Interest appeared to be leveling out after attaining a new ATH. Figures for the same peaked at $24.19 billion on 8 November.

與此同時，比特幣的未平倉合約在達到新的 ATH 後似乎正在趨於平穩。 11 月 8 日，這一數字達到 241.9 億美元的高峰。

Exchange flows indicate that demand was still higher than sell pressure

外匯流量顯示需求仍高於拋售壓力

Exchange flow data dropped considerably recently, indicating signs of potential bullish exhaustion. Despite this finding, however, the amount of BTC flowing out of exchanges was still slightly higher than BTC exchange inflows.

近期外匯流量數據大幅下降，顯示看漲可能耗盡的跡象。然而，儘管如此，流出交易所的 BTC 數量仍略高於 BTC 交易所流入量。

Bitcoin had 6,648 BTC in exchange outflows on 9 November, compared to 5,806 BTC in inflows. This suggested that demand was still in favor of the bulls and the price could still tick up.

11 月 9 日，比特幣的交易流出量為 6,648 BTC，而流入量為 5,806 BTC。這表明需求仍然有利於多頭，價格仍可能上漲。

Based on the aforementioned data, it seemed clear that there was still some bullish momentum preventing the bears from taking over. This, combined with the demand coming from Bitcoin ETFs, may explain the prevalence of optimism. However, this does not necessarily mean that the situation will remain like that.

根據上述數據，顯然仍存在一些看漲勢頭，阻止空頭佔據主導地位。這與比特幣 ETF 的需求結合，或許可以解釋樂觀情緒的普遍性。然而，這並不一定意味著情況會一直如此。

BTC’s price action demonstrated that the bulls have been struggling to push higher. This may be a sign that demand is cooling down, which may then pave the way for a bearish retracement once sell pressure starts to gain traction.

比特幣的價格走勢表明，多頭一直在努力推高價格。這可能表明需求正在降溫，一旦拋售壓力開始增強，這可能會為看跌回調鋪平道路。