比特币（BTC）价格预测：尽管存在超买情况，多头仍会继续占据主导地位吗？

AMBCrypto 此前曾研究过，如果比特币在达到最近的历史高点后回调，则多头清算的可能性。好吧，尽管超买了

Despite being overbought, sell pressure remained weak across the board and at press time, BTC holders were still going strong.

尽管已经超买，但抛售压力仍然全面疲弱，截至发稿时，比特币持有者仍然强劲。

One of the main reasons why Bitcoin sell pressure has not taken over is because market confidence was still strong after the recent top. Heavy Bitcoin ETF inflows in the last 24 hours contributed to this. ETF flows have proved to be a relatively accurate measure of market confidence. In fact, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas,

比特币抛售压力尚未接管的主要原因之一是因为在近期见顶后市场信心仍然强劲。过去 24 小时内比特币 ETF 的大量流入造成了这一情况。事实证明，ETF 流量是衡量市场信心的相对准确的指标。事实上，根据彭博社的埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 的说法，

“Bitcoin ETFs took in a record-smashing $1.4b yesterday (the Trump effect). $IBIT alone was +$1.1b. That’s +$6.7b in past mo and $25.5b YTD. All told they feasted on about 18k btc in one day (vs 450 mined) and are now 93% of the way to passing Satoshi’s 1.1mil btc.”

“昨天，比特币 ETF 的收入达到了创纪录的 1.4 亿美元（特朗普效应）。仅 $IBIT 就为 +$1.1b。过去一个月为 +$6.7b，年初至今为 $25.5b。总而言之，他们一天内收获了约 18,000 枚 BTC（相比之下，开采了 450 枚），现在已经超过中本聪 110 万枚 BTC 的 93%。”

The surge in ETF inflows may push Bitcoin to greater highs. A recent cryptoQuant analysis recently looked into the possibility of such an outcome forming a short squeeze. According to the analysis, while the Open Interest was high, the funding rates were negative.

ETF 流入的激增可能会将比特币推向更高的高点。最近的一项 cryptoQuant 分析研究了这种结果形成轧空的可能性。据分析，虽然未平仓量很高，但资金利率却为负。

Negative funding rates historically indicate a shift in market sentiment, specifically, to a bearish outlook in the derivatives segment. This shift was supported by Coinglass’s BTC long/short ratio which revealed that shorts were higher than longs over the last 3 days.

从历史上看，负融资利率表明市场情绪发生转变，特别是衍生品领域的悲观前景。这一转变得到了 Coinglass 的 BTC 多头/空头比率的支持，该比率显示过去 3 天空头数量高于多头数量。

This surge in short positions was likely because derivatives traders anticipated the previous top to act as a resistance level. Or at least short-term profit taking to trigger another pullback. However, shorts would be at risk of liquidations if the price pushes up.

空头头寸激增可能是因为衍生品交易员预计之前的顶部将成为阻力位。或者至少是短期获利了结以引发另一次回调。然而，如果价格上涨，空头将面临清算的风险。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Open Interest appeared to be leveling out after attaining a new ATH. Figures for the same peaked at $24.19 billion on 8 November.

与此同时，比特币的未平仓合约在达到新的 ATH 后似乎正在趋于平稳。 11 月 8 日，这一数字达到 241.9 亿美元的峰值。

Exchange flows indicate that demand was still higher than sell pressure

外汇流量表明需求仍高于抛售压力

Exchange flow data dropped considerably recently, indicating signs of potential bullish exhaustion. Despite this finding, however, the amount of BTC flowing out of exchanges was still slightly higher than BTC exchange inflows.

近期外汇流量数据大幅下降，表明看涨可能耗尽的迹象。然而，尽管如此，流出交易所的 BTC 数量仍略高于 BTC 交易所流入量。

Bitcoin had 6,648 BTC in exchange outflows on 9 November, compared to 5,806 BTC in inflows. This suggested that demand was still in favor of the bulls and the price could still tick up.

11 月 9 日，比特币的交易流出量为 6,648 BTC，而流入量为 5,806 BTC。这表明需求仍然有利于多头，价格仍可能上涨。

Based on the aforementioned data, it seemed clear that there was still some bullish momentum preventing the bears from taking over. This, combined with the demand coming from Bitcoin ETFs, may explain the prevalence of optimism. However, this does not necessarily mean that the situation will remain like that.

根据上述数据，显然仍然存在一些看涨势头，阻止空头占据主导地位。这与比特币 ETF 的需求相结合，或许可以解释乐观情绪的普遍存在。然而，这并不一定意味着情况会一直如此。

BTC’s price action demonstrated that the bulls have been struggling to push higher. This may be a sign that demand is cooling down, which may then pave the way for a bearish retracement once sell pressure starts to gain traction.

比特币的价格走势表明，多头一直在努力推高价格。这可能表明需求正在降温，一旦抛售压力开始增强，这可能会为看跌回调铺平道路。