比特幣（BTC）價格分析：2025年公牛週期與前一個週期一致，但這次市場看起來不同

分析師大師Kenobi強調了一個比特幣圖表，概述了2021年牛市第一階段的關鍵時刻。

Key Takeaways

關鍵要點

Bitcoin rose 140% off its 2017 high by January 30, 2021, fueled by post-halving momentum.

截至2021年1月30日，比特幣在2017年最高點上升高了140％，這是由備註後勢頭推動的。

In 75 days, it saw three blow-out rallies, only for its gains to be wiped out in the sell-off during the summer, falling 54%.

在75天內，它看到了三場爆發的集會，僅在夏季賣出的售罄中，其收益下降了54％。

But history teaches us that these down periods serve as a launchpad for the next leg of a bull market.

但是歷史告訴我們，這些下降時期是下一個牛市的下一回事的發射台。

2025 aligns historically with the previous bull cycles, with one caveat: no internal danger is looming over the crypto economy in 2025.

2025年曆史上與以前的牛週期保持一致，並有一個警告：2025年，對加密經濟的內部危險無處可去。

Institutional adoption is ramping up, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already live and more altcoins potentially in line.

機構採用正在加劇，比特幣和以太坊ETF已經生活，並且有可能排隊的山寨幣。

If patterns from past cycles continue, February could mark the start of a new explosive phase for altcoins.

如果過去的周期中的模式繼續，2月可以標誌著山寨幣的新爆炸階段的開始。

Bitcoin’s Leverage Balance: A Window Into Market Sentiment

比特幣的槓桿餘額：進入市場情緒的窗口

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) is a key metric for gauging trading confidence and, by extension, the overall trading risk appetite. As Bitcoin’s price rose in 2021, so did its leverage, indicating increasing confidence. High leverage usually leads to sharp liquidations and, hence, rapid price drops.

加密數據表明，比特幣的估計槓桿比率（ELR）是衡量交易信心的關鍵指標，並擴展是總體交易風險胃口。隨著比特幣在2021年的價格上漲，其槓桿作用也是如此，表明信心越來越高。高槓桿通常會導致急劇清算，因此價格迅速下降。

Meanwhile, as Bitcoin entered a downtrend in 2022, its leverage ratio dropped as investors reduced their exposure. This is a common trend, suggesting that Bitcoin’s volatility is partly driven by leverage. Currently, the ELR values indicate that investors are being cautious and waiting for a directional move.

同時，隨著比特幣在2022年進入下降趨勢，由於投資者減少了曝光率，其槓桿率下降。這是一個普遍的趨勢，表明比特幣的波動部分是由槓桿驅動的。目前，ELR值表明投資者在謹慎並等待方向性的舉動。

ETF Approvals: A Game-Changer For Crypto Markets

ETF批准：加密市場的改變遊戲規則

Unlike its predecessors, the current bull run is a sea change with its attendant green lights from regulators, opening up the institutional floodgates into crypto. The legitimacy of institutional investors can make a sustained bull run, marking 2025 different from its predecessors.

與前任不同，目前的公牛奔跑是海洋的變化，其隨之而來的綠燈來自監管機構，將機構閘門打開進入加密貨幣。機構投資者的合法性可以進行持續的公牛奔跑，標誌著2025年的前任不同。

As we await ETFs for altcoins, the times they are a-changin’. With even larger assets like Solana and XRP getting ETF approval, a new wave of capital could enter and reshape the market. Compared to the unhinged mania of 2017 or the institutionality of 2021, this one seems more measured, opening up the space for long-term growth.

當我們等待altcoins的ETF時，它們是changin'的時代。隨著Solana和XRP等較大的資產獲得ETF批准，新的資本浪潮可以進入並重塑市場。與2017年的無神躁狂症或2021年的製度性相比，這似乎更為衡量，從而為長期增長提供了空間。

Market cycles tend to repeat, but with new elements at each stage. History tells us that Bitcoin is in the next phase of a bull market, but external factors like macroeconomics and regulators will influence its trajectory.

市場週期往往會重複，但每個階段都有新的要素。歷史告訴我們，比特幣正處於牛市的下一個階段，但是宏觀經濟和監管機構等外部因素將影響其軌跡。

If past trends continue, early February could mark the start of a rapid price expansion phase. However, investors should proceed with caution as heightened speculation will usher in a period of market volatility.

如果過去的趨勢持續下去，2月初可以標誌著價格快速擴張階段的開始。但是，投資者應謹慎行事，因為猜測加強將使市場波動的時期引入。