比特币（BTC）价格分析：2025年公牛周期与前一个周期一致，但这次市场看起来不同

分析师大师Kenobi强调了一个比特币图表，概述了2021年牛市第一阶段的关键时刻。

Key Takeaways

关键要点

Bitcoin rose 140% off its 2017 high by January 30, 2021, fueled by post-halving momentum.

截至2021年1月30日，比特币在2017年最高点上升高了140％，这是由备注后势头推动的。

In 75 days, it saw three blow-out rallies, only for its gains to be wiped out in the sell-off during the summer, falling 54%.

在75天内，它看到了三场爆发的集会，仅在夏季卖出的售罄中，其收益下降了54％。

But history teaches us that these down periods serve as a launchpad for the next leg of a bull market.

但是历史告诉我们，这些下降时期是下一个牛市的下一回事的发射台。

2025 aligns historically with the previous bull cycles, with one caveat: no internal danger is looming over the crypto economy in 2025.

2025年历史上与以前的牛周期保持一致，并有一个警告：2025年，对加密经济的内部危险无处可去。

Institutional adoption is ramping up, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already live and more altcoins potentially in line.

机构采用正在加剧，比特币和以太坊ETF已经生活，并且有可能排队的山寨币。

If patterns from past cycles continue, February could mark the start of a new explosive phase for altcoins.

如果过去的周期中的模式继续，2月可以标志着山寨币的新爆炸阶段的开始。

Bitcoin’s Leverage Balance: A Window Into Market Sentiment

比特币的杠杆余额：进入市场情绪的窗口

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) is a key metric for gauging trading confidence and, by extension, the overall trading risk appetite. As Bitcoin’s price rose in 2021, so did its leverage, indicating increasing confidence. High leverage usually leads to sharp liquidations and, hence, rapid price drops.

加密数据表明，比特币的估计杠杆比率（ELR）是衡量交易信心的关键指标，并扩展是总体交易风险胃口。随着比特币在2021年的价格上涨，其杠杆作用也是如此，表明信心越来越高。高杠杆通常会导致急剧清算，因此价格迅速下降。

Meanwhile, as Bitcoin entered a downtrend in 2022, its leverage ratio dropped as investors reduced their exposure. This is a common trend, suggesting that Bitcoin’s volatility is partly driven by leverage. Currently, the ELR values indicate that investors are being cautious and waiting for a directional move.

同时，随着比特币在2022年进入下降趋势，由于投资者减少了曝光率，其杠杆率下降。这是一个普遍的趋势，表明比特币的波动部分是由杠杆驱动的。目前，ELR值表明投资者在谨慎并等待方向性的举动。

ETF Approvals: A Game-Changer For Crypto Markets

ETF批准：加密市场的改变游戏规则

Unlike its predecessors, the current bull run is a sea change with its attendant green lights from regulators, opening up the institutional floodgates into crypto. The legitimacy of institutional investors can make a sustained bull run, marking 2025 different from its predecessors.

与前任不同，目前的公牛奔跑是海洋的变化，其随之而来的绿灯来自监管机构，将机构闸门打开进入加密货币。机构投资者的合法性可以进行持续的公牛奔跑，标志着2025年的前任不同。

As we await ETFs for altcoins, the times they are a-changin’. With even larger assets like Solana and XRP getting ETF approval, a new wave of capital could enter and reshape the market. Compared to the unhinged mania of 2017 or the institutionality of 2021, this one seems more measured, opening up the space for long-term growth.

当我们等待altcoins的ETF时，它们是changin'的时代。随着Solana和XRP等较大的资产获得ETF批准，新的资本浪潮可以进入并重塑市场。与2017年的无神躁狂症或2021年的制度性相比，这似乎更为衡量，从而为长期增长提供了空间。

Market cycles tend to repeat, but with new elements at each stage. History tells us that Bitcoin is in the next phase of a bull market, but external factors like macroeconomics and regulators will influence its trajectory.

市场周期往往会重复，但每个阶段都有新的要素。历史告诉我们，比特币正处于牛市的下一个阶段，但是宏观经济和监管机构等外部因素将影响其轨迹。

If past trends continue, early February could mark the start of a rapid price expansion phase. However, investors should proceed with caution as heightened speculation will usher in a period of market volatility.

如果过去的趋势持续下去，2月初可以标志着价格快速扩张阶段的开始。但是，投资者应谨慎行事，因为猜测加强将使市场波动的时期引入。