比特幣（BTC）價格行動可能正在為另一個“加速階段”設置

最近的一份富達數字資產報告質疑比特幣價格是否已經看到了其周期性的“打擊頂部”

A recent report by Fidelity Digital Assets has sparked discussion among crypto enthusiasts as it questioned whether Bitcoin (BTC) price had already seen its cyclical “blow off top” or if the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of another “acceleration phase.’

Fidelity Digital Assets的最新報告引發了加密助人的討論，因為它質疑比特幣（BTC）的價格是否已經看到了其周期性的“吹牛”，還是加密貨幣在另一個“加速階段”的浪尖上。

According to Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright, Bitcoin’s acceleration phases are characterized by “high volatility and high profit,” similar to the price action seen when BTC pushed above $20,000 in December 2020.

根據富達分析師Zack Wainwright的說法，比特幣的加速階段的特徵是“高波動性和高利潤”，類似於BTC在2020年12月推出20,000美元以上的價格行動。

While Bitcoin’s year-to-date return reflects an 11.44% loss, and the asset is down nearly 25% from its all-time high, Wainwright says the recent post-acceleration phase performance is in line with BTC’s average drawdowns when compared to previous market cycles.

Wainwright表示，比特幣的年初回報反映了11.44％的虧損，而資產的損失卻遠低於其歷史最高損失，但與以前的市場週期相比，最近加速後的階段表現符合BTC的平均水位。

Bitcoin historical downside after acceleration phases. | Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research

加速階段後的比特幣歷史缺點。 |資料來源：保真數字資產研究

Wainwright suggests that Bitcoin is still in an acceleration phase but is moving closer to the completion of the cycle, as March 3 represented day 232 of the period. Previous peaks lasted slightly longer before a corrective period set in.

Wainwright建議比特幣仍處於加速階段，但正靠近週期的完成，因為3月3日代表了該時期的第232天。先前的峰持續了較長的時間，然後在設定的糾正期之前。

Is another parabolic rally on the cards for Bitcoin?

比特幣的卡片上還有另一個拋物線集會嗎？

Bitcoin price has languished below $100,000 since Feb. 21, and a good deal of the momentum and positive sentiment that comprised the “Trump trade” has dissipated and been replaced by tariff-war-induced volatility and the markets’ fear that the US could be heading into a recession.

自2月21日以來，比特幣的價格已低於100,000美元，其中包括“特朗普貿易”的勢頭和積極情緒已經消失，並被關稅引起的波動所取代，並且市場擔心美國可能會進入衰退。

Despite these overhanging factors and the negative impact they’ve had on day-to-day Bitcoin prices, large entities continue to add to their BTC stockpiles.

儘管這些懸垂的因素以及它們對日常比特幣價格產生的負面影響，但大型實體仍在增加其BTC庫存。

On March 31, Strategy (NASDAQ:MAGA) CEO Michael Saylor announced that the company had acquired 22,048 BTC ($1.92 billion) at an average price of $86,969 per Bitcoin. On the same day, Bitcoin miner MARA (NASDAQ:MARA) revealed plans to sell up to $2 billion in stock to acquire more BTC “from time to time.”

3月31日，策略（納斯達克股票代碼：MAGA）首席執行官邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）宣布，該公司以每比特幣的平均價格為86,969美元收購了22,048 BTC（19.2億美元）。同一天，比特幣礦工Mara（納斯達克股票代碼：Mara）揭示了計劃出售高達20億美元的股票，以“不時”收購更多BTC。

Following in the footsteps of larger-cap companies, Japanese firm Metaplanet issued 2 billion yen ($13.3 million) in bonds on March 31 to buy more Bitcoin, and the largest news of March came from GameStop (NYSE:GME) announcing a $1.3 billion convertible notes offering, a portion of which could be used to purchase Bitcoin.

在大型公司的腳步之後，日本公司Metaplanet於3月31日發行了20億日元（1,330萬美元）的債券，以購買更多的比特幣，而3月的最大新聞來自GameStop（NYSE：GME），宣布了13億美元的可轉換票據，一部分可用於購買比特幣的一部分。

The recent buying and statements of intent to buy from a variety of international and US-based publicly listed companies show a price-agnostic approach to accumulating BTC as a reserve asset, and it highlights the positive future price exceptions held among institutional investors.

最近從各種國際和美國上市的公司購買的購買和意圖的陳述表明，價格不合時宜的方法可以累積BTC作為儲備資產，並突出了機構投資者中所持的積極的未來價格異常。

While it is difficult to determine the impact of institutional investor Bitcoin purchases on BTC price, Wainwright said that a metric to keep an eye on is the number of days during a rolling 60-day period when the cryptocurrency hits a new all-time high. Wainwright posted the following chart and said, "Perhaps this is a close variant of the "greater fool theory' but it does appear that during periods of high and increasing days at a new all-time high, we observe a strong directional bias in price and/or an unwillingness to correct significantly from the new highs."

Wainwright說，儘管很難確定購買機構投資者比特幣對BTC價格的影響，但要關注的指標是在60天的滾動時間內，加密貨幣達到了新的歷史最高水平。 Wainwright發布了以下圖表，並說：“也許這是“更大的傻瓜理論”的密切變體，但似乎在新的歷史高度時期，我們觀察到價格和/或不願意從新高點上明顯糾正的高度方向偏見。”

Bitcoin’s number of all-time high days (rolling 60 days). | Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research

比特幣有史以來高高日的數量（滾動60天）。 |資料來源：保真數字資產研究