比特币（BTC）价格行动可能正在为另一个“加速阶段”设置

最近的一份富达数字资产报告质疑比特币价格是否已经看到了其周期性的“打击顶部”

A recent report by Fidelity Digital Assets has sparked discussion among crypto enthusiasts as it questioned whether Bitcoin (BTC) price had already seen its cyclical “blow off top” or if the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of another “acceleration phase.’

Fidelity Digital Assets的最新报告引发了加密助人的讨论，因为它质疑比特币（BTC）的价格是否已经看到了其周期性的“吹牛”，还是加密货币在另一个“加速阶段”的浪尖上。

According to Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright, Bitcoin’s acceleration phases are characterized by “high volatility and high profit,” similar to the price action seen when BTC pushed above $20,000 in December 2020.

根据富达分析师Zack Wainwright的说法，比特币的加速阶段的特征是“高波动性和高利润”，类似于BTC在2020年12月推出20,000美元以上的价格行动。

While Bitcoin’s year-to-date return reflects an 11.44% loss, and the asset is down nearly 25% from its all-time high, Wainwright says the recent post-acceleration phase performance is in line with BTC’s average drawdowns when compared to previous market cycles.

Wainwright表示，比特币的年初回报反映了11.44％的亏损，而资产的损失却远低于其历史最高损失，但与以前的市场周期相比，最近加速后的阶段表现符合BTC的平均水位。

Bitcoin historical downside after acceleration phases. | Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research

加速阶段后的比特币历史缺点。 |资料来源：保真数字资产研究

Wainwright suggests that Bitcoin is still in an acceleration phase but is moving closer to the completion of the cycle, as March 3 represented day 232 of the period. Previous peaks lasted slightly longer before a corrective period set in.

Wainwright建议比特币仍处于加速阶段，但正靠近周期的完成，因为3月3日代表了该时期的第232天。先前的峰持续了较长的时间，然后在设定的纠正期之前。

Is another parabolic rally on the cards for Bitcoin?

比特币的卡片上还有另一个抛物线集会吗？

Bitcoin price has languished below $100,000 since Feb. 21, and a good deal of the momentum and positive sentiment that comprised the “Trump trade” has dissipated and been replaced by tariff-war-induced volatility and the markets’ fear that the US could be heading into a recession.

自2月21日以来，比特币的价格已低于100,000美元，其中包括“特朗普贸易”的势头和积极情绪已经消失，并被关税引起的波动所取代，并且市场担心美国可能会进入衰退。

Despite these overhanging factors and the negative impact they’ve had on day-to-day Bitcoin prices, large entities continue to add to their BTC stockpiles.

尽管这些悬垂的因素以及它们对日常比特币价格产生的负面影响，但大型实体仍在增加其BTC库存。

On March 31, Strategy (NASDAQ:MAGA) CEO Michael Saylor announced that the company had acquired 22,048 BTC ($1.92 billion) at an average price of $86,969 per Bitcoin. On the same day, Bitcoin miner MARA (NASDAQ:MARA) revealed plans to sell up to $2 billion in stock to acquire more BTC “from time to time.”

3月31日，策略（纳斯达克股票代码：MAGA）首席执行官迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）宣布，该公司以每比特币的平均价格为86,969美元收购了22,048 BTC（19.2亿美元）。同一天，比特币矿工Mara（纳斯达克股票代码：Mara）揭示了计划出售高达20亿美元的股票，以“不时”收购更多BTC。

Following in the footsteps of larger-cap companies, Japanese firm Metaplanet issued 2 billion yen ($13.3 million) in bonds on March 31 to buy more Bitcoin, and the largest news of March came from GameStop (NYSE:GME) announcing a $1.3 billion convertible notes offering, a portion of which could be used to purchase Bitcoin.

在大型公司的脚步之后，日本公司Metaplanet于3月31日发行了20亿日元（1,330万美元）的债券，以购买更多的比特币，而3月的最大新闻来自GameStop（NYSE：GME），宣布了13亿美元的可转换票据，一部分可用于购买比特币的一部分。

The recent buying and statements of intent to buy from a variety of international and US-based publicly listed companies show a price-agnostic approach to accumulating BTC as a reserve asset, and it highlights the positive future price exceptions held among institutional investors.

最近从各种国际和美国上市的公司购买的购买和意图的陈述表明，价格不合时宜的方法可以累积BTC作为储备资产，并突出了机构投资者中所持的积极的未来价格异常。

While it is difficult to determine the impact of institutional investor Bitcoin purchases on BTC price, Wainwright said that a metric to keep an eye on is the number of days during a rolling 60-day period when the cryptocurrency hits a new all-time high. Wainwright posted the following chart and said, "Perhaps this is a close variant of the "greater fool theory' but it does appear that during periods of high and increasing days at a new all-time high, we observe a strong directional bias in price and/or an unwillingness to correct significantly from the new highs."

Wainwright说，尽管很难确定购买机构投资者比特币对BTC价格的影响，但要关注的指标是在60天的滚动时间内，加密货币达到了新的历史最高水平。 Wainwright发布了以下图表，并说：“也许这是“更大的傻瓜理论”的密切变体，但似乎在新的历史高度时期，我们观察到价格和/或不愿意从新高点上明显纠正的高度方向偏见。”

Bitcoin’s number of all-time high days (rolling 60 days). | Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research

比特币有史以来高高日的数量（滚动60天）。 |资料来源：保真数字资产研究