特朗普的解放日已经到来，市场正在紧张地等待美国关税的发展

特朗普总统所谓的解放日已经到来，市场正在紧张地等待美国关税的发展。即使在政府内部，情绪也远没有乐观。

President Trump's so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets will be nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs, even as pessimism deepens within the administration over a possible recession, City Index analyst Tom Demer penned in a market commentary.

特朗普总统所谓的解放日已经到来，市场将紧张地等待美国关税的发展，即使在政府内部因可能的衰退而加深的悲观主义，城市索引分析师汤姆·德默（Tom Demer）在市场评论中写下了汤姆·德默（Tom Demer）。

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.

据英国在线报纸《独立报》报道，据报道，商务秘书霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnik）在十字准线中处于十字准线中，他可能会成为替罪羊，如果美国要进入经济衰退，他可能会偏爱过度积极的关税。

A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.

根据亚特兰大美联储的GDPNOW模式，经济衰退看起来很可能，该模型预计，美国Real GDP的第一季度收缩为-3.7％。这是早期估计的戏剧性下降修订：两个月前 +3.9％，一个月前 +2.3％，仅在两个星期前，-1.8％。

While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

虽然特朗普尚未透露关税将针对哪个国家，但计划在股票市场下午4点关闭之后发布公告

Bitcoin (BTC) is meanwhile remaining unfazed, trading little changed on the day and remaining above the $85,000 mark. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.

与此同时，比特币（BTC）剩下的剩下，当天的交易几乎没有变化，而保持在85,000美元以上。美国股票在周二的较高时间较高，尽管期货指向周三的略有负面状态。

At present, bitcoin is lagging 25% below its January 20 all-time high of $109,000, placing it in the middle of the performance range of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks.

目前，比特币落后于1月20日的109,000美元的历史最高点，将其置于“ Magnificent 7”技术股票的性能范围之内。

Apple is lagging 17% below its all-time high, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50% below their respective all-time highs.

苹果落后于其历史最高高的17％，微软22％，亚马逊24％，元25％，Google 26％，Nvidia 32％和特斯拉的历史高点50％。

The cryptocurrency's resilience becomes evident when comparing it to past cycles. In 2022, BTC saw a steeper decline of 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, compared to a 34% drop for the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ).

将加密货币的弹性与过去的周期进行比较时，变得很明显。在2022年，BTC的峰值急剧下降了75％，低至15,500美元，而NASDAQ-100 ETF（QQQ）下降了34％。

This year, bitcoin has decreased by 30%, while QQQ has fallen by 16%, indicating a relative drawdown of 1.87 times for bitcoin. This suggests that bitcoin is becoming more resilient over time, even though volatility remains a defining characteristic.

今年，比特币减少了30％，而QQQ下降了16％，表明比特币的相对降低为1.87倍。这表明比特币随着时间的流逝而变得越来越有弹性，即使波动仍然是一个定义的特征。

However, a lot will depend on the tariff announcement and how markets react to it. Stay tuned!

但是，很大程度上取决于关税公告以及市场对此的反应。敬请关注！

What to WatchToken EventsConferencesToken TalkBy Shaurya MalwaDerivatives Positioning

watchtoken EventsConferenceskoken Talkby Shaurya Malwaderivatives定位

Market MovementsBitcoin Stats:

Market MoversementsBitcoin统计：

Technical AnalysisCrypto EquitiesETF Flows

技术分析CRYPTO Equitiesetf流

Spot BTC ETFS:

SPOT BTC ETF：

Spot ETH ETFS

点ETH ETF

Source: Farside Investors

资料来源：Farside Investors

Overnight FlowsChart of the DayWhile You Were SleepingIn the Ether

白天的隔夜流动，你在以太瑟睡觉