特朗普的解放日已經到來，市場正在緊張地等待美國關稅的發展

特朗普總統所謂的解放日已經到來，市場正在緊張地等待美國關稅的發展。即使在政府內部，情緒也遠沒有樂觀。

President Trump's so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets will be nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs, even as pessimism deepens within the administration over a possible recession, City Index analyst Tom Demer penned in a market commentary.

特朗普總統所謂的解放日已經到來，市場將緊張地等待美國關稅的發展，即使在政府內部因可能的衰退而加深的悲觀主義，城市索引分析師湯姆·德默（Tom Demer）在市場評論中寫下了湯姆·德默（Tom Demer）。

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.

據英國在線報紙《獨立報》報導，據報導，商務秘書霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnik）在十字準線中處於十字準線中，他可能會成為替罪羊，如果美國要進入經濟衰退，他可能會偏愛過度積極的關稅。

A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.

根據亞特蘭大美聯儲的GDPNOW模式，經濟衰退看起來很可能，該模型預計，美國Real GDP的第一季度收縮為-3.7％。這是早期估計的戲劇性下降修訂：兩個月前 +3.9％，一個月前 +2.3％，僅在兩個星期前，-1.8％。

While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

雖然特朗普尚未透露關稅將針對哪個國家，但計劃在股票市場下午4點關閉之後發佈公告

Bitcoin (BTC) is meanwhile remaining unfazed, trading little changed on the day and remaining above the $85,000 mark. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.

與此同時，比特幣（BTC）剩下的剩下，當天的交易幾乎沒有變化，而保持在85,000美元以上。美國股票在周二的較高時間較高，儘管期貨指向周三的略有負面狀態。

At present, bitcoin is lagging 25% below its January 20 all-time high of $109,000, placing it in the middle of the performance range of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks.

目前，比特幣落後於1月20日的109,000美元的歷史最高點，將其置於“ Magnificent 7”技術股票的性能範圍之內。

Apple is lagging 17% below its all-time high, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50% below their respective all-time highs.

蘋果落後於其歷史最高高的17％，微軟22％，亞馬遜24％，元25％，Google 26％，Nvidia 32％和特斯拉的歷史高點50％。

The cryptocurrency's resilience becomes evident when comparing it to past cycles. In 2022, BTC saw a steeper decline of 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, compared to a 34% drop for the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ).

將加密貨幣的彈性與過去的周期進行比較時，變得很明顯。在2022年，BTC的峰值急劇下降了75％，低至15,500美元，而NASDAQ-100 ETF（QQQ）下降了34％。

This year, bitcoin has decreased by 30%, while QQQ has fallen by 16%, indicating a relative drawdown of 1.87 times for bitcoin. This suggests that bitcoin is becoming more resilient over time, even though volatility remains a defining characteristic.

今年，比特幣減少了30％，而QQQ下降了16％，表明比特幣的相對降低為1.87倍。這表明比特幣隨著時間的流逝而變得越來越有彈性，即使波動仍然是一個定義的特徵。

However, a lot will depend on the tariff announcement and how markets react to it. Stay tuned!

但是，很大程度上取決於關稅公告以及市場對此的反應。敬請關注！

What to WatchToken EventsConferencesToken TalkBy Shaurya MalwaDerivatives Positioning

watchtoken EventsConferenceskoken Talkby Shaurya Malwaderivatives定位

Market MovementsBitcoin Stats:

Market MoversementsBitcoin統計：

Technical AnalysisCrypto EquitiesETF Flows

技術分析CRYPTO Equitiesetf流

Spot BTC ETFS:

SPOT BTC ETF：

Spot ETH ETFS

點ETH ETF

Source: Farside Investors

資料來源：Farside Investors

Overnight FlowsChart of the DayWhile You Were SleepingIn the Ether

白天的隔夜流動，你在以太瑟睡覺