比特幣（BTC）市場分析師監控潛在的潛力，以提高價格和新ATHS的可能性

由於比特幣（BTC）鞏固了高於100,000美元的重要里程碑，以前是違反挑戰性的阻力水平，市場分析師非常緊密

Bitcoin price finally breached the significant $100,000 milestone on Monday, encountering resistance at this level throughout the past few weeks.

比特幣的價格終於在周一違反了這一巨大的100,000美元里程碑，在過去的幾周中，這一水平遇到了阻力。

As BTC consolidates above this critical threshold, market analysts are keeping a close watch on its potential for further price increases and the possibility of setting new all-time highs (ATHs). However, some experts are also warning of an impending bear market that could emerge within just three months.

隨著BTC鞏固高於這個關鍵閾值，市場分析師正在密切關注其進一步價格上漲的潛力以及設定新的歷史最高點（ATHS）的可能性。但是，一些專家也警告即將在短短三個月內出現的熊市即將出現。

Bitcoin price movements are being closely monitored by both retail and institutional investors alike. After Bitcoin Halving, which occurred in April 2024, and the subsequent rally that followed, many anticipated a bear market to set in by the end of 2024. However, Bitcoin’s resilience and the strength of the bull market have pushed back these expectations.

零售和機構投資者都對比特幣價格變動進行了密切監控。在2024年4月發生的比特幣減半之後，隨後的集會隨後發生的集會後，許多人預計到2024年底會設定熊市。但是，比特幣的韌性和牛市的實力已經推遲了這些期望。

Now, as Bitcoin price stalls after setting a new ATH at $105,000, some analysts are predicting that a bear market could begin as early as March 2025. This prediction is based on historical patterns observed following Bitcoin's Halving events.

現在，由於比特幣價格攤位將新ATH設置為105,000美元後，一些分析師預測，熊市最早可能在2025年3月開始。這一預測基於比特幣減半事件後觀察到的歷史模式。

One analyst, known as Ali Martinez, recently raised concerns in a social media post on X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that the market may be setting up for a top.

一位被稱為阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）的分析師最近在X（以前稱為Twitter）的社交媒體帖子中引起了人們的關注，這表明市場可能正在為頂部設置。

As seen in the chart above, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could enter a bear cycle approximately 90 days from now. This prediction is based on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, particularly during Halving years, which historically have been followed by significant corrections.

如上圖所示，分析師認為比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場可以從現在開始大約90天進入熊週期。該預測基於比特幣價格變動的周期性性質，尤其是在減半的幾年中，從歷史上看，這是重大糾正的。

As further seen in the chart above, Martinez points out that examining the total days of each BTC Halving cycle reveals a striking resemblance to the previous cycle between 2012 and 2016, which lasted 367 days before entering a bear market. As of now, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market is at 276 days into this cycle, suggesting that a downturn may be closer than some investors anticipate.

正如上圖進一步看到的那樣，馬丁內斯指出，檢查每個BTC減半週期的總天數顯示出與2012年至2016年之間的上一個週期的相似之處，在進入熊市之前持續了367天。截至目前，比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場距離這個週期的276天，這表明經濟不景氣可能比某些投資者預期的要近。

Bitcoin Price Could Rally To $200,000 Before A Drop To $100,000

比特幣的價格可能會漲到200,000美元，然後跌至100,000美元

Further analysis from Martinez incorporates the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis framework that identifies market cycles. According to this method, Bitcoin may be approaching its final leg up before entering the Distribution Phase, a period of consolidation before a price decline.

馬丁內斯（Martinez）的進一步分析結合了Wyckoff方法，這是一個識別市場週期的技術分析框架。根據這種方法，比特幣在進入分配階段之前可能會接近最後一條腿，這是在價格下降之前的合併期。

In this phase, Ali Martinez predicts that the BTC price could trade between $140,000 and $200,000 before experiencing a significant drop back toward the $100,000 level. But despite these cautionary forecasts, Martinez also notes that there remains potential for growth in the short term.

在此階段，阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）預測，BTC價格可能在140,000至200,000美元之間進行交易，然後經歷了100,000美元的大幅度下降。但是，儘管有這些警告性的預測，但馬丁內斯還指出，短期內仍有增長的潛力。

He draws comparisons to the 2015-2018 cycle, asserting that Bitcoin’s price action at this juncture shares striking similarities with that period, which eventually led to parabolic price increases.

他與2015-2018週期進行了比較，並斷言比特幣在此關頭的價格行動與該時期的相似之處令人震驚，最終導致了拋物線價格上漲。

Additionally, the Mayer Multiple, a metric that gauges Bitcoin’s overbought conditions, is currently being scrutinized. Historically, the Mayer Multiple has indicated market tops when Bitcoin trades above the 2.4 oscillator. Presently, this level sits near $182,000, suggesting that Bitcoin still has potential for growth before reaching a potential market peak this cycle.

此外，Mayer多重估計的指標是測量比特幣過多的條件，目前正在審查中。從歷史上看，當比特幣交易高於2.4振盪器時，Mayer倍數表明市場上漲。目前，該水平的價格接近182,000美元，這表明比特幣在這個週期達到潛在市場的峰值之前仍然具有增長潛力。

At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading at $102,900, down over 1.5% in the 24-hour time frame.

在撰寫本文時，按市值按市值計算的最大加密貨幣為102,900美元，在24小時時間內下降了1.5％以上。