比特币（BTC）市场分析师监控潜在的潜力，以提高价格和新ATHS的可能性

由于比特币（BTC）巩固了高于100,000美元的重要里程碑，以前是违反挑战性的阻力水平，市场分析师非常紧密

Bitcoin price finally breached the significant $100,000 milestone on Monday, encountering resistance at this level throughout the past few weeks.

比特币的价格终于在周一违反了这一巨大的100,000美元里程碑，在过去的几周中，这一水平遇到了阻力。

As BTC consolidates above this critical threshold, market analysts are keeping a close watch on its potential for further price increases and the possibility of setting new all-time highs (ATHs). However, some experts are also warning of an impending bear market that could emerge within just three months.

随着BTC巩固高于这个关键阈值，市场分析师正在密切关注其进一步价格上涨的潜力以及设定新的历史最高点（ATHS）的可能性。但是，一些专家也警告即将在短短三个月内出现的熊市即将出现。

Bitcoin price movements are being closely monitored by both retail and institutional investors alike. After Bitcoin Halving, which occurred in April 2024, and the subsequent rally that followed, many anticipated a bear market to set in by the end of 2024. However, Bitcoin’s resilience and the strength of the bull market have pushed back these expectations.

零售和机构投资者都对比特币价格变动进行了密切监控。在2024年4月发生的比特币减半之后，随后的集会随后发生的集会后，许多人预计到2024年底会设定熊市。但是，比特币的韧性和牛市的实力已经推迟了这些期望。

Now, as Bitcoin price stalls after setting a new ATH at $105,000, some analysts are predicting that a bear market could begin as early as March 2025. This prediction is based on historical patterns observed following Bitcoin's Halving events.

现在，由于比特币价格摊位将新ATH设置为105,000美元后，一些分析师预测，熊市最早可能在2025年3月开始。这一预测基于比特币减半事件后观察到的历史模式。

One analyst, known as Ali Martinez, recently raised concerns in a social media post on X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that the market may be setting up for a top.

一位被称为阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）的分析师最近在X（以前称为Twitter）的社交媒体帖子中引起了人们的关注，这表明市场可能正在为顶部设置。

As seen in the chart above, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could enter a bear cycle approximately 90 days from now. This prediction is based on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, particularly during Halving years, which historically have been followed by significant corrections.

如上图所示，分析师认为比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场可以从现在开始大约90天进入熊周期。该预测基于比特币价格变动的周期性性质，尤其是在减半的几年中，从历史上看，这是重大纠正的。

As further seen in the chart above, Martinez points out that examining the total days of each BTC Halving cycle reveals a striking resemblance to the previous cycle between 2012 and 2016, which lasted 367 days before entering a bear market. As of now, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market is at 276 days into this cycle, suggesting that a downturn may be closer than some investors anticipate.

正如上图进一步看到的那样，马丁内斯指出，检查每个BTC减半周期的总天数显示出与2012年至2016年之间的上一个周期的相似之处，在进入熊市之前持续了367天。截至目前，比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场距离这个周期的276天，这表明经济不景气可能比某些投资者预期的要近。

Bitcoin Price Could Rally To $200,000 Before A Drop To $100,000

比特币的价格可能会涨到200,000美元，然后跌至100,000美元

Further analysis from Martinez incorporates the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis framework that identifies market cycles. According to this method, Bitcoin may be approaching its final leg up before entering the Distribution Phase, a period of consolidation before a price decline.

马丁内斯（Martinez）的进一步分析结合了Wyckoff方法，这是一个识别市场周期的技术分析框架。根据这种方法，比特币在进入分配阶段之前可能会接近最后一条腿，这是在价格下降之前的合并期。

In this phase, Ali Martinez predicts that the BTC price could trade between $140,000 and $200,000 before experiencing a significant drop back toward the $100,000 level. But despite these cautionary forecasts, Martinez also notes that there remains potential for growth in the short term.

在此阶段，阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）预测，BTC价格可能在140,000至200,000美元之间进行交易，然后经历了100,000美元的大幅度下降。但是，尽管有这些警告性的预测，但马丁内斯还指出，短期内仍有增长的潜力。

He draws comparisons to the 2015-2018 cycle, asserting that Bitcoin’s price action at this juncture shares striking similarities with that period, which eventually led to parabolic price increases.

他与2015-2018周期进行了比较，并断言比特币在此关头的价格行动与该时期的相似之处令人震惊，最终导致了抛物线价格上涨。

Additionally, the Mayer Multiple, a metric that gauges Bitcoin’s overbought conditions, is currently being scrutinized. Historically, the Mayer Multiple has indicated market tops when Bitcoin trades above the 2.4 oscillator. Presently, this level sits near $182,000, suggesting that Bitcoin still has potential for growth before reaching a potential market peak this cycle.

此外，Mayer多重估计的指标是测量比特币过多的条件，目前正在审查中。从历史上看，当比特币交易高于2.4振荡器时，Mayer倍数表明市场上涨。目前，该水平的价格接近182,000美元，这表明比特币在这个周期达到潜在市场的峰值之前仍然具有增长潜力。

At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading at $102,900, down over 1.5% in the 24-hour time frame.

在撰写本文时，按市值按市值计算的最大加密货币为102,900美元，在24小时的时间范围内下降了1.5％以上。