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報告稱,地緣政治風險和即將到來的美國大選可能會加劇“貶值貿易”,這對比特幣和黃金都有好處。
Geopolitical risks and the upcoming U.S. presidential election are likely to benefit bitcoin and gold, according to JPMorgan.
摩根大通表示,地緣政治風險和即將到來的美國總統大選可能有利於比特幣和黃金。
The report said that a Trump win would likely boost both bitcoin and gold.
該報告稱,川普獲勝可能會提振比特幣和黃金。
Markets aren't currently pricing in a victory for the former president.
市場目前並未預計這位前總統會獲勝。
Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the 'debasement trade,' and this favors both bitcoin (BTC) and gold, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Wednesday.
摩根大通(JPM)週三在一份研究報告中表示,地緣政治緊張局勢和即將到來的美國總統大選可能會支撐“貶值交易”,這對比特幣(BTC)和黃金都有利。
The report noted that both bitcoin and gold are likely to benefit from the geopolitical risks and the upcoming U.S. election, with the former being favored by a Trump win and the latter by a Biden victory.
報告指出,比特幣和黃金都可能受益於地緣政治風險和即將到來的美國大選,前者因川普獲勝而受益,後者則因拜登獲勝而受益。
"A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the 'debasement trade' both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy ('debt debasement')," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the report.
分析師表示:「尤其是川普的勝利,除了從監管角度支持比特幣之外,還可能透過關稅(地緣政治緊張局勢)和擴張性財政政策('債務貶值')強化'貶值貿易'。 」由 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 領導的報告中寫道。
However, the report added that markets aren't pricing in a victory for Trump just yet. The chances of a Trump election win are currently priced in with a low probability looking at other asset classes other than gold and bitcoin, the report said, adding that this is because investors have been preoccupied with the recession trade in recent months.
然而,該報告補充說,市場尚未消化川普將獲勝的預期。報告稱,目前考慮到黃金和比特幣以外的其他資產類別,川普獲勝的可能性很低,並補充說,這是因為投資者近幾個月來一直專注於經濟衰退交易。
If the "Trump trade" plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said.
摩根大通表示,如果「川普貿易」以類似2016年的方式上演,美國公債殖利率應該會更高,美元會走強,美國股市(尤其是銀行股)表現優異,信貸利差也會收緊。
"This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets. For example, in the six month window around the 2016 American election, 5-year Treasury yields rose 1%, the DXY surged 8%, U.S. equities outperformed to the tune of 6%, banks beat the rest of the S&P 500 stock index by 15% and high grade corporate credit spreads tightened significantly," the report noted.
「這種轉變尚未發生,這些市場僅出現小幅上漲。例如,在 2016 年美國大選前後的 6 個月窗口內,5 年期公債殖利率上漲 1%,DXY 飆升 8%,美國股市報告指出,銀行的表現優於標準普爾500 股票指數的其他成分股15%,高等級企業信貸利差顯著收緊。
Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks, Standard Chartered said in a report.
渣打銀行在報告中表示,比特幣並不是抵禦地緣政治風險的避風港。
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