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报告称,地缘政治风险和即将到来的美国大选可能会加剧“贬值贸易”,这对比特币和黄金都有利。
Geopolitical risks and the upcoming U.S. presidential election are likely to benefit bitcoin and gold, according to JPMorgan.
摩根大通表示,地缘政治风险和即将到来的美国总统大选可能有利于比特币和黄金。
The report said that a Trump win would likely boost both bitcoin and gold.
该报告称,特朗普获胜可能会提振比特币和黄金。
Markets aren't currently pricing in a victory for the former president.
市场目前并未预计这位前总统会获胜。
Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the 'debasement trade,' and this favors both bitcoin (BTC) and gold, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Wednesday.
摩根大通(JPM)周三在一份研究报告中表示,地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的美国总统大选可能会支撑“贬值交易”,这对比特币(BTC)和黄金都有利。
The report noted that both bitcoin and gold are likely to benefit from the geopolitical risks and the upcoming U.S. election, with the former being favored by a Trump win and the latter by a Biden victory.
报告指出,比特币和黄金都可能受益于地缘政治风险和即将到来的美国大选,前者因特朗普获胜而受益,后者则因拜登获胜而受益。
"A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the 'debasement trade' both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy ('debt debasement')," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the report.
分析师表示:“尤其是特朗普的胜利,除了从监管角度支持比特币之外,还可能通过关税(地缘政治紧张局势)和扩张性财政政策(‘债务贬值’)强化‘贬值贸易’。”由 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 领导的报告中写道。
However, the report added that markets aren't pricing in a victory for Trump just yet. The chances of a Trump election win are currently priced in with a low probability looking at other asset classes other than gold and bitcoin, the report said, adding that this is because investors have been preoccupied with the recession trade in recent months.
然而,该报告补充说,市场尚未消化特朗普将获胜的预期。报告称,目前考虑到黄金和比特币以外的其他资产类别,特朗普获胜的可能性很低,并补充说,这是因为投资者近几个月来一直专注于经济衰退交易。
If the "Trump trade" plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said.
摩根大通表示,如果“特朗普贸易”以与2016年类似的方式上演,美国国债收益率应该会更高,美元会走强,美国股市(尤其是银行股)表现优异,信贷利差也会收紧。
"This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets. For example, in the six month window around the 2016 American election, 5-year Treasury yields rose 1%, the DXY surged 8%, U.S. equities outperformed to the tune of 6%, banks beat the rest of the S&P 500 stock index by 15% and high grade corporate credit spreads tightened significantly," the report noted.
“这种转变尚未发生,这些市场仅出现小幅上涨。例如,在 2016 年美国大选前后的 6 个月窗口内,5 年期国债收益率上涨 1%,DXY 飙升 8%,美国股市报告指出,银行的表现优于标准普尔 500 股票指数的其他成分股 15%,高等级企业信贷利差显着收紧。
Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks, Standard Chartered said in a report.
渣打银行在一份报告中表示,比特币并不是抵御地缘政治风险的避风港。
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