比特幣和山寨幣在減半臨近之際應對市場不確定性

領先的加密貨幣比特幣已經鞏固了其上漲趨勢，同時面臨空頭的暫時阻力。儘管今年第 14 週比特幣價格出現歷史性下跌，但比特幣的區間波動顯示供需之間存在平衡。推動近期價格走勢的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金的表現可能為未來的方向提供見解。然而，隨著比特幣減半事件的臨近，不確定性迫在眉睫，可能引發回調。

Bitcoin and Altcoins Navigate Uncertain Times as Bitcoin Halving Approaches

隨著比特幣減半的臨近，比特幣和山寨幣度過了不確定的時期

Amidst a consolidating trend, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself locked in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. Bears currently hold the advantage, with historical data indicating an average 8.33% decline during the 14th week of the year, according to Coinglass data.

在盤整趨勢中，比特幣（BTC）發現自己陷入了看漲和看跌力量之間的拉鋸戰。目前空頭佔優勢，根據 Coinglass 數據，歷史數據顯示今年第 14 週平均下跌 8.33%。

Traders are closely monitoring the performance of spot Bitcoin-exchange traded funds (ETFs), which have played a significant role in price movements. In March, trading volume surged from $42.2 billion to $111 billion, as per data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

交易員正在密切關注現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的表現，這些基金在價格走勢中發揮了重要作用。根據彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 的數據，3 月交易量從 422 億美元飆升至 1,110 億美元。

Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特幣價格分析

Despite repeated attempts, bulls have been unable to propel Bitcoin above $71,770, leading to a sharp decline below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $67,646 on April 2. The flattened 20-day EMA and neutral relative strength index (RSI) suggest a balancing act between supply and demand.

儘管多次嘗試，多頭仍無法推動比特幣突破71,770 美元，導致比特幣在4 月2 日大幅跌破20 日指數移動平均線(EMA) 67,646 美元。20 日EMA 和中性相對強弱指數(RSI ) 趨平建議在供需之間採取平衡行動。

A slide below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $63,098 could trigger further losses, potentially extending to $59,000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298. Alternatively, a rebound above the 20-day EMA would signal a potential range-bound period.

跌破 63,098 美元的 50 日簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 可能會引發進一步的損失，可能會擴大至 59,000 美元和 61.8% 斐波那契回撤位 54,298 美元。或者，反彈至 20 日均線上方將預示潛在的區間波動期。

Altcoin Analysis

山寨幣分析

Ether (ETH)

以太幣（ETH）

ETH tumbled below the 50-day SMA on April 2, opening the door for a retest of its March 20 low of $3,056. The bearish momentum could push the ETH/USDT pair down to $2,700, but a recovery above the moving averages would suggest a range-bound action between $3,056 and $3,679.

4 月 2 日，ETH 跌破 50 日移動平均線，為重新測試 3 月 20 日低點 3,056 美元打開了大門。看跌勢頭可能會將 ETH/USDT 貨幣對推低至 2,700 美元，但恢復至移動平均線之上將意味著在 3,056 美元至 3,679 美元之間進行區間波動。

Binance Coin (BNB)

幣安幣 (BNB)

BNB slipped below the 20-day EMA on April 2, signaling waning bullish momentum. A range-bound phase between $535 and $561 is likely, with a break above $561 indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.

4 月 2 日，BNB 跌破 20 日均線，顯示看漲勢頭減弱。可能會在 535 美元至 561 美元之間區間震盪，突破 561 美元表明上升趨勢可能會持續。

Solana (SOL)

索拉納 (太陽)

SOL briefly visited the 20-day EMA on April 2 but rebounded sharply on April 3, showing sustained positive sentiment. A break above $205 could trigger a surge towards $243 and $260. However, failure at $205 would increase the possibility of a drop below the 20-day EMA and further selling pressure.

SOL在4月2日短暫觸及20日均線，但在4月3日大幅反彈，顯示出持續的正面情緒。突破 205 美元可能會引發價格飆升至 243 美元和 260 美元。然而，如果跌破 205 美元，將增加跌破 20 日均線的可能性，並進一步造成拋售壓力。

XRP (XRP)

瑞波幣 (XRP)

XRP remains range-bound between $0.46 and $0.74. A break below the uptrend line may lead to a decline towards $0.52, while a recovery above the 20-day EMA would signal buying strength.

XRP 仍然在 0.46 美元至 0.74 美元之間波動。跌破上升趨勢線可能導致跌向 0.52 美元，而反彈至 20 日均線上方則表示買盤強勁。

Cardano (ADA)

卡爾達諾（ADA）

ADA has found strong support at $0.57, and a rebound from this level could face resistance at the 20-day EMA. A break above $0.64 would suggest consolidation, while a drop below $0.57 would complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially triggering a decline to $0.46.

ADA 在 0.57 美元處找到了強勁支撐，從該水平反彈可能會遇到 20 日均線的阻力。突破 0.64 美元將意味著盤整，而跌破 0.57 美元將完成看跌的頭肩形態，可能引發跌至 0.46 美元。

Dogecoin (DOGE)

狗狗幣 (DOGE)

DOGE sharply reversed on April 2 and broke below $0.19, indicating aggressive profit-taking. A recovery above $0.20 would signal the end of the correction, while a failure to sustain above $0.20 could lead to a decline towards the 50-day SMA of $0.14.

DOGE 於 4 月 2 日大幅反轉並跌破 0.19 美元，顯示出激進的獲利了結。恢復至 0.20 美元上方將標誌著修正的結束，而未能維持在 0.20 美元上方可能導致跌向 0.14 美元的 50 日移動平均線。

Avalanche (AVAX)

雪崩 (AVAX)

AVAX plunged below $50 on April 2, and further selling pressure pushed the AVAX/USDT pair beneath the 50-day SMA on April 3. If the price fails to hold above the 20-day EMA, it could break below the 50-day SMA and retest $42.

4 月2 日，AVAX 暴跌至50 美元以下，4 月3 日，進一步的拋售壓力將AVAX/USDT 貨幣對推至50 日均線下方。如果價格未能守住20 日均線，則可能會跌破50 日均線並重新測試 42 美元。

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

柴犬 (SHIB)

SHIB dropped below the 20-day EMA on April 2, and a decline towards the 50-day SMA is possible. A rebound off this support could lead to an attempt to rise towards $0.000033, while a breakdown below the 50-day SMA would suggest deeper correction towards $0.000017.

4 月 2 日，SHIB 跌破 20 日均線，並有可能跌向 50 日均線。從該支撐位反彈可能會導致價格上漲至 0.000033 美元，而跌破 50 日移動平均線則意味著進一步回調至 0.000017 美元。

Toncoin (TON)

東幣 (TON)

TON reached the 20-day EMA on April 3, and a sustainable rebound from this level could indicate buying at lower levels. Alternatively, a break below $4.63 could trigger profit-taking and pull the TON/USDT pair towards $4.22.

TON 於 4 月 3 日觸及 20 日均線，從該水平持續反彈可能表明在較低水平買入。或者，跌破 4.63 美元可能會引發獲利了結，並將 TON/USDT 貨幣對拉向 4.22 美元。

Conclusion

結論

The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins facing resistance at key levels. The approach of the Bitcoin halving brings added uncertainty, as the event has historically been followed by price fluctuations. Traders should exercise caution and monitor market conditions closely.

加密貨幣市場仍面臨壓力，比特幣整合，山寨幣在關鍵水平面臨阻力。比特幣減半的臨近帶來了更多的不確定性，因為從歷史上看，減半事件伴隨著價格波動。交易者應謹慎行事並密切注意市場狀況。