比特币和山寨币在减半临近之际应对市场不确定性

领先的加密货币比特币已经巩固了其上涨趋势，同时面临空头的暂时阻力。尽管今年第 14 周比特币价格出现历史性下跌，但比特币的区间波动表明供需之间存在平衡。推动近期价格走势的现货比特币交易所交易基金的表现可能会为未来的方向提供见解。然而，随着比特币减半事件的临近，不确定性迫在眉睫，可能引发回调。

Bitcoin and Altcoins Navigate Uncertain Times as Bitcoin Halving Approaches

随着比特币减半的临近，比特币和山寨币度过了不确定的时期

Amidst a consolidating trend, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself locked in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. Bears currently hold the advantage, with historical data indicating an average 8.33% decline during the 14th week of the year, according to Coinglass data.

在盘整趋势中，比特币（BTC）发现自己陷入了看涨和看跌力量之间的拉锯战。目前空头占据优势，根据 Coinglass 数据，历史数据显示今年第 14 周平均下跌 8.33%。

Traders are closely monitoring the performance of spot Bitcoin-exchange traded funds (ETFs), which have played a significant role in price movements. In March, trading volume surged from $42.2 billion to $111 billion, as per data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

交易员正在密切关注现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的表现，这些基金在价格走势中发挥了重要作用。根据彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 的数据，3 月份交易量从 422 亿美元飙升至 1,110 亿美元。

Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特币价格分析

Despite repeated attempts, bulls have been unable to propel Bitcoin above $71,770, leading to a sharp decline below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $67,646 on April 2. The flattened 20-day EMA and neutral relative strength index (RSI) suggest a balancing act between supply and demand.

尽管多次尝试，多头仍无法推动比特币突破 71,770 美元，导致比特币在 4 月 2 日大幅跌破 20 日指数移动平均线 (EMA) 67,646 美元。20 日 EMA 和中性相对强弱指数 (RSI) 趋平建议在供需之间采取平衡行动。

A slide below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $63,098 could trigger further losses, potentially extending to $59,000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298. Alternatively, a rebound above the 20-day EMA would signal a potential range-bound period.

跌破 63,098 美元的 50 日简单移动平均线 (SMA) 可能会引发进一步的损失，可能会扩大至 59,000 美元和 61.8% 斐波那契回撤位 54,298 美元。或者，反弹至 20 日均线上方将预示着潜在的区间波动期。

Altcoin Analysis

山寨币分析

Ether (ETH)

以太币（ETH）

ETH tumbled below the 50-day SMA on April 2, opening the door for a retest of its March 20 low of $3,056. The bearish momentum could push the ETH/USDT pair down to $2,700, but a recovery above the moving averages would suggest a range-bound action between $3,056 and $3,679.

4 月 2 日，ETH 跌破 50 日移动平均线，为重新测试 3 月 20 日低点 3,056 美元打开了大门。看跌势头可能会将 ETH/USDT 货币对推低至 2,700 美元，但恢复至移动平均线之上将意味着在 3,056 美元至 3,679 美元之间进行区间波动。

Binance Coin (BNB)

币安币 (BNB)

BNB slipped below the 20-day EMA on April 2, signaling waning bullish momentum. A range-bound phase between $535 and $561 is likely, with a break above $561 indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.

4 月 2 日，BNB 跌破 20 日均线，表明看涨势头减弱。可能会在 535 美元至 561 美元之间区间震荡，突破 561 美元表明上升趋势可能会持续。

Solana (SOL)

索拉纳 (太阳)

SOL briefly visited the 20-day EMA on April 2 but rebounded sharply on April 3, showing sustained positive sentiment. A break above $205 could trigger a surge towards $243 and $260. However, failure at $205 would increase the possibility of a drop below the 20-day EMA and further selling pressure.

SOL在4月2日短暂触及20日均线，但在4月3日大幅反弹，显示出持续的积极情绪。突破 205 美元可能会引发价格飙升至 243 美元和 260 美元。然而，如果跌破 205 美元，将增加跌破 20 日均线的可能性，并进一步造成抛售压力。

XRP (XRP)

瑞波币 (XRP)

XRP remains range-bound between $0.46 and $0.74. A break below the uptrend line may lead to a decline towards $0.52, while a recovery above the 20-day EMA would signal buying strength.

XRP 仍然在 0.46 美元至 0.74 美元之间波动。跌破上升趋势线可能导致跌向 0.52 美元，而反弹至 20 日均线上方则表明买盘强劲。

Cardano (ADA)

卡尔达诺（ADA）

ADA has found strong support at $0.57, and a rebound from this level could face resistance at the 20-day EMA. A break above $0.64 would suggest consolidation, while a drop below $0.57 would complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially triggering a decline to $0.46.

ADA 在 0.57 美元处找到了强劲支撑，从该水平反弹可能会遇到 20 日均线的阻力。突破 0.64 美元将意味着盘整，而跌破 0.57 美元将完成看跌的头肩形态，可能引发跌至 0.46 美元。

Dogecoin (DOGE)

狗狗币 (DOGE)

DOGE sharply reversed on April 2 and broke below $0.19, indicating aggressive profit-taking. A recovery above $0.20 would signal the end of the correction, while a failure to sustain above $0.20 could lead to a decline towards the 50-day SMA of $0.14.

DOGE 于 4 月 2 日大幅反转并跌破 0.19 美元，显示出激进的获利了结。恢复至 0.20 美元上方将标志着修正的结束，而未能维持在 0.20 美元上方可能导致跌向 0.14 美元的 50 日移动平均线。

Avalanche (AVAX)

雪崩 (AVAX)

AVAX plunged below $50 on April 2, and further selling pressure pushed the AVAX/USDT pair beneath the 50-day SMA on April 3. If the price fails to hold above the 20-day EMA, it could break below the 50-day SMA and retest $42.

4 月 2 日，AVAX 暴跌至 50 美元以下，4 月 3 日，进一步的抛售压力将 AVAX/USDT 货币对推至 50 日均线下方。如果价格未能守住 20 日均线，则可能会跌破 50 日均线并重新测试 42 美元。

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

柴犬 (SHIB)

SHIB dropped below the 20-day EMA on April 2, and a decline towards the 50-day SMA is possible. A rebound off this support could lead to an attempt to rise towards $0.000033, while a breakdown below the 50-day SMA would suggest deeper correction towards $0.000017.

4 月 2 日，SHIB 跌破 20 日均线，并有可能跌向 50 日均线。从该支撑位反弹可能会导致价格上涨至 0.000033 美元，而跌破 50 日移动平均线则意味着进一步回调至 0.000017 美元。

Toncoin (TON)

东币 (TON)

TON reached the 20-day EMA on April 3, and a sustainable rebound from this level could indicate buying at lower levels. Alternatively, a break below $4.63 could trigger profit-taking and pull the TON/USDT pair towards $4.22.

TON 于 4 月 3 日触及 20 日均线，从该水平持续反弹可能表明在较低水平买入。或者，跌破 4.63 美元可能会引发获利了结，并将 TON/USDT 货币对拉向 4.22 美元。

Conclusion

结论

The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins facing resistance at key levels. The approach of the Bitcoin halving brings added uncertainty, as the event has historically been followed by price fluctuations. Traders should exercise caution and monitor market conditions closely.

加密货币市场仍然面临压力，比特币整合，山寨币在关键水平面临阻力。比特币减半的临近带来了更多的不确定性，因为从历史上看，减半事件伴随着价格波动。交易者应谨慎行事并密切关注市场状况。