avax可能會崩潰

雪崩（Avax）是當前市場週期的早期提升者之一，在2023年10月至2024年3月之間，飆升了600％以上。

Avalanche (AVAX) was one of the early movers of the current bull market, rising over 600% between October 2023 and March 2024.

雪崩（Avax）是當前牛市的早期推動者之一，在2023年10月至2024年3月之間上漲了600％以上。

However, momentum has faded, and AVAX has trended downward since then. A failed breakout attempt ended in December, and AVAX has fallen over 60% since then. With the price risking a breakdown from a critical support area, it is worth examining its price movement to see if the bull market is salvageable.

但是，勢頭逐漸消失，從那以後，Avax一直向下趨勢。突破性嘗試失敗於12月，自那時以來，Avax下降了60％以上。由於價格有可能從關鍵支持區域發生故障，因此值得研究其價格變動，以查看牛市是否可以挽救。

AVAX Risks Breakdown

avax可能會崩潰

The weekly time frame shows that the AVAX price broke out from the $21 horizontal resistance area in 2021, confirming the start of its bullish trend.

每週的時間範圍表明，雅芳價格從2021年的21美元水平阻力區域爆發，證實了其看漲趨勢的開始。

However, the breakout did not generate the expected upside momentum. It culminated with a high of $65.39 in March 2024, and the price has trended downward since then.

但是，突破並未產生預期的上空勢頭。它在2024年3月達到了高潮，最高為65.39美元，此後的價格一直在下降。

Another failed attempt at beginning an upward movement led to a lower high of $55.79 (red icon), after which the price started another decline. This week, AVAX returned to the $21 horizontal area. While the price bounced in this area in July (green icon), it could break down this time.

另一場失敗的嘗試開始向上移動的嘗試導致較低的高處為55.79美元（紅色圖標），此後價格又開始下降。本週，Avax返回了21美元的水平區域。雖然7月份的價格在該地區（綠色圖標）彈起，但這次可能會破壞。

Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50, and the MACD is in negative territory.

技術指標是看跌。相對強度指數（RSI）和移動平均收斂/發散（MACD）正在下降。 RSI低於50，MACD處於負區域。

So, the weekly time frame suggests AVAX will break down from the $21 horizontal area. The next long-term horizontal support is at $11.

因此，每週的時間範圍表明Avax將從21美元的水平區域中崩潰。下一個長期水平支持為11美元。

There are some positive news about AVAX, such as the founder and CEO being appointed to the board of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the rebrand of the Core Wallet.

關於Avax有一些積極的消息，例如被任命為商品期貨貿易委員會（CFTC）的創始人兼首席執行官，以及核心錢包的重塑。

However, the absence of AVAX from Donald Trump’s proposed strategic crypto reserve did not go unnoticed.

但是，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）擬議的戰略加密保護區的缺席並沒有引起人們的注意。

With that in mind, let’s examine the wave count and determine whether AVAX can bounce before it reaches it.

考慮到這一點，讓我們檢查一下浪潮計數，並確定avax是否可以在達到它之前反彈。

Where Will AVAX Bottom?

avax將在哪裡？

The wave count suggests AVAX is in wave C of an A-B-C structure that started with the cycle high of $65.39 in March 2024. Since the decline follows a five-wave upward movement (green), it is likely corrective.

波數表明，Avax處於ABC結構的波C中，該結構從2024年3月的周期高達65.39美元開始。由於下降是在五波向上移動（綠色）之後，因此可能是糾正的。

The first potential target for the drop is $14.56, created by giving wave C the same length as wave A. The target also coincides with the channel’s support trend line.

下降的第一個潛在目標是$ 14.56，通過給波C的長度與Wave A相同，而該目標也與通道的支撐趨勢線相吻合。

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想在您的投資組合中添加雪崩avax嗎？發現在您所在國家購買和銷售Avalanche Avax的領先平台。

The sub-wave count is in black, which shows that AVAX has started the fifth and final wave of the downward movement, which will complete wave C. The breakdown from the $21 area will confirm the final portion of wave C is underway.

子波計數為黑色，這表明Avax已經開始了向下移動的第五個也是最後一波，該波動將完成波浪C。$ 21區域的崩潰將確認波浪C的最後部分正在進行中。

While wave C may extend and become longer than wave A, the 1:1 ratio coincides perfectly with the channel’s support trend line, which makes it more likely to act as the bottom.

雖然波C延伸並變得比波A更長，但1：1的比例與通道的支撐趨勢線完美吻合，這使其更有可能充當底部。

Alternatively, a strong bounce that takes the price above the channel’s midline will invalidate the bearish prediction and take AVAX toward the channel’s resistance at $50. This currently seems unlikely.

另外，強烈的反彈使價格高於頻道的中線將使看跌的預測無效，並將Avax帶到頻道的阻力下，價格為50美元。目前似乎不太可能。

AVAX Drops Below $20

avax跌至20美元以下

The trend of the token has been bearish since March, confirmed by the lower high created in December and the ensuing decline.

自3月以來，代幣的趨勢一直是看跌，這是12月下降以及隨後的下降所證實的。

A close below the $21 horizontal support area will likely trigger another 30% drop for AVAX, taking it to $14.50.

低於$ 21的水平支撐區以下的近距離可能會觸發Avax的30％下降，將其降至14.50美元。