avax可能会崩溃

雪崩（Avax）是当前市场周期的早期提升者之一，在2023年10月至2024年3月之间，飙升了600％以上。

Avalanche (AVAX) was one of the early movers of the current bull market, rising over 600% between October 2023 and March 2024.

雪崩（Avax）是当前牛市的早期推动者之一，在2023年10月至2024年3月之间上涨了600％以上。

However, momentum has faded, and AVAX has trended downward since then. A failed breakout attempt ended in December, and AVAX has fallen over 60% since then. With the price risking a breakdown from a critical support area, it is worth examining its price movement to see if the bull market is salvageable.

但是，势头逐渐消失，从那以后，Avax一直向下趋势。突破性尝试失败于12月，自那时以来，Avax下降了60％以上。由于价格有可能从关键支持区域发生故障，因此值得研究其价格变动，以查看牛市是否可以挽救。

AVAX Risks Breakdown

avax可能会崩溃

The weekly time frame shows that the AVAX price broke out from the $21 horizontal resistance area in 2021, confirming the start of its bullish trend.

每周的时间范围表明，雅芳价格从2021年的21美元水平阻力区域爆发，证实了其看涨趋势的开始。

However, the breakout did not generate the expected upside momentum. It culminated with a high of $65.39 in March 2024, and the price has trended downward since then.

但是，突破并未产生预期的上空势头。它在2024年3月达到了高潮，最高为65.39美元，此后的价格一直在下降。

Another failed attempt at beginning an upward movement led to a lower high of $55.79 (red icon), after which the price started another decline. This week, AVAX returned to the $21 horizontal area. While the price bounced in this area in July (green icon), it could break down this time.

另一场失败的尝试开始向上移动的尝试导致较低的高处为55.79美元（红色图标），此后价格又开始下降。本周，Avax返回了21美元的水平区域。虽然7月份的价格在该地区（绿色图标）弹起，但这次可能会破坏。

Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50, and the MACD is in negative territory.

技术指标是看跌。相对强度指数（RSI）和移动平均收敛/发散（MACD）正在下降。 RSI低于50，MACD处于负区域。

So, the weekly time frame suggests AVAX will break down from the $21 horizontal area. The next long-term horizontal support is at $11.

因此，每周的时间范围表明Avax将从21美元的水平区域中崩溃。下一个长期水平支持为11美元。

There are some positive news about AVAX, such as the founder and CEO being appointed to the board of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the rebrand of the Core Wallet.

关于Avax有一些积极的消息，例如被任命为商品期货贸易委员会（CFTC）的创始人兼首席执行官，以及核心钱包的重塑。

However, the absence of AVAX from Donald Trump’s proposed strategic crypto reserve did not go unnoticed.

但是，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）拟议的战略加密保护区的缺席并没有引起人们的注意。

With that in mind, let’s examine the wave count and determine whether AVAX can bounce before it reaches it.

考虑到这一点，让我们检查一下浪潮计数，并确定avax是否可以在达到它之前反弹。

Where Will AVAX Bottom?

avax将在哪里？

The wave count suggests AVAX is in wave C of an A-B-C structure that started with the cycle high of $65.39 in March 2024. Since the decline follows a five-wave upward movement (green), it is likely corrective.

波数表明，Avax处于ABC结构的波C中，该结构从2024年3月的周期高达65.39美元开始。由于下降是在五波向上移动（绿色）之后，因此可能是纠正的。

The first potential target for the drop is $14.56, created by giving wave C the same length as wave A. The target also coincides with the channel’s support trend line.

下降的第一个潜在目标是$ 14.56，通过给波C的长度与Wave A相同，而该目标也与通道的支撑趋势线相吻合。

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想在您的投资组合中添加雪崩avax吗？发现在您所在国家购买和销售Avalanche Avax的领先平台。

The sub-wave count is in black, which shows that AVAX has started the fifth and final wave of the downward movement, which will complete wave C. The breakdown from the $21 area will confirm the final portion of wave C is underway.

子波计数为黑色，这表明Avax已经开始了向下移动的第五个也是最后一波，该波动将完成波浪C。$ 21区域的崩溃将确认波浪C的最后部分正在进行中。

While wave C may extend and become longer than wave A, the 1:1 ratio coincides perfectly with the channel’s support trend line, which makes it more likely to act as the bottom.

虽然波C延伸并变得比波A更长，但1：1的比例与通道的支撑趋势线完美吻合，这使其更有可能充当底部。

Alternatively, a strong bounce that takes the price above the channel’s midline will invalidate the bearish prediction and take AVAX toward the channel’s resistance at $50. This currently seems unlikely.

另外，强烈的反弹使价格高于频道的中线将使看跌的预测无效，并将Avax带到频道的阻力下，价格为50美元。目前似乎不太可能。

AVAX Drops Below $20

avax跌至20美元以下

The trend of the token has been bearish since March, confirmed by the lower high created in December and the ensuing decline.

自3月以来，代币的趋势一直是看跌，这是12月下降以及随后的下降所证实的。

A close below the $21 horizontal support area will likely trigger another 30% drop for AVAX, taking it to $14.50.

低于$ 21的水平支撑区以下的近距离可能会触发Avax的30％下降，将其降至14.50美元。