歷史數據顯示雪崩即將衝過索拉納

鏈上數據表明，最近在 2023 年 11 月出現的 Avalanche (AVAX) 的社會主導地位較低，歷史上一直先於價格大幅上漲。分析表明，如果 AVAX 遵循先前週期中觀察到的類似模式，短期內可能會飆升至 51.45 美元，可能超越 Solana (SOL)。

Avalanche (AVAX) Poised for Significant Price Surge, Potentially Surpassing Solana (SOL)

Avalanche (AVAX) 價格將大幅上漲，有可能超越 Solana (SOL)

Recent on-chain data analysis reveals that Avalanche (AVAX) is currently at a pivotal point, indicating potential for a substantial price increase. Historical trends suggest that a similar scenario has previously led to a remarkable 4-fold increase in its value.

最近的鏈上數據分析顯示，Avalanche（AVAX）目前正處於關鍵點，顯示價格有可能大幅上漲。歷史趨勢表明，類似的情況先前曾導致其價值顯著增長 4 倍。

According to data compiled by Santiment and analyzed by AMBCrypto, AVAX's social dominance has recently reached its lowest level since November 2023, currently standing at 0.205%. This metric, which measures the relative frequency of discussions about a token compared to the top 100 cryptocurrencies, has historically served as a significant indicator of future price movements. Notably, the last time social dominance for AVAX hit this low, the token's price surged from $11.62 to $48.93 within a period of less than two months.

根據 Santiment 編制並由 AMBCrypto 分析的數據，AVAX 的社交統治力最近達到 2023 年 11 月以來的最低水平，目前為 0.205%。此指標衡量代幣與前 100 種加密貨幣相比討論的相對頻率，歷來都是未來價格走勢的重要指標。值得注意的是，上次 AVAX 的社會主導地位跌至如此低點時，該代幣的價格在不到兩個月的時間內從 11.62 美元飆升至 48.93 美元。

AVAX's Potential to Outperform SOL

AVAX 超越 SOL 的潛力

During that period, AVAX and Solana (SOL) shared a close parallel in terms of price appreciation. However, despite both tokens experiencing setbacks compared to their Q4 2023 performance, SOL has maintained an edge over AVAX in Q1 2024. Over the past 90 days, SOL's price has increased by a significant 64.43%, while AVAX has recorded a more modest 18.93% gain.

在此期間，AVAX 和 Solana (SOL) 在價格上漲方面非常相似。然而，儘管這兩種代幣與2023 年第四季的表現相比都遭遇了挫折，但SOL 在2024 年第一季仍保持著相對於AVAX 的優勢。上漲了64.43%，而AVAX 的價格則上漲了18.93%。

Solana Ecosystem Challenges

Solana 生態系統挑戰

However, the decline in AVAX's social dominance could be a catalyst for a reversal of fortunes. Historical patterns suggest that AVAX may be poised for a significant rally, potentially reaching $50.60 within the coming weeks. This is supported by the token's current price of $37.31, which indicates ample room for upward movement.

然而，AVAX 社會主導地位的下降可能成為命運逆轉的催化劑。歷史模式表明 AVAX 可能會大幅上漲，可能在未來幾週內達到 50.60 美元。代幣當前價格 37.31 美元支撐了這一點，這表明還有充足的上漲空間。

Beyond the price performance of their native tokens, the Solana ecosystem has faced challenges in other areas as well. For example, dogwifhat (WIF), the leading memecoin on Solana, has experienced a 37% price increase in the last 30 days. In contrast, Coq Inu (COQ), the leading memecoin on Avalanche, has declined by 34% during the same period. This divergence in memecoin performance indicates a higher level of interest in SOL compared to AVAX.

除了原生代幣的性價比之外，Solana 生態系統在其他領域也面臨挑戰。例如，Solana 上領先的迷因幣 Dogwifhat (WIF) 在過去 30 天內價格上漲了 37%。相比之下，Avalanche 上領先的模因幣 Coq Inu (COQ) 同期下跌了 34%。 memecoin 表現的這種差異表明，與 AVAX 相比，人們對 SOL 的興趣更高。

Technical Analysis Points to Upside Potential

技術分析指出上漲潛力

Despite the recent setbacks, AVAX appears to offer a more compelling buying opportunity than SOL. Traders may find the token's current valuation attractive, potentially leading to increased liquidity and upward price pressure.

儘管最近遭遇挫折，但 AVAX 似乎提供了比 SOL 更有吸引力的購買機會。交易者可能會發現該代幣目前的估值具有吸引力，可能導致流動性增加和價格上漲壓力。

However, both SOL and AVAX face negative sentiment in the market. AVAX's Weighted Sentiment stands at -0.619, while SOL's reading is even lower at -1.023. This suggests that traders are more optimistic about AVAX's short-term bullish prospects than SOL's.

然而，SOL 和 AVAX 都面臨著市場的負面情緒。 AVAX 的加權情緒為 -0.619，而 SOL 的讀數甚至更低，為 -1.023。這表明交易者對 AVAX 的短期看漲前景比 SOL 更加樂觀。

On the technical front, AVAX has established support at $32.70, preventing a further decline. However, the token faces resistance at $38.58, which has temporarily halted its upward trajectory.

技術方面，AVAX 已在 32.70 美元建立支撐，防止進一步下跌。然而，該代幣面臨 38.58 美元的阻力，暫時停止了上漲軌跡。

Indicators such as the Awesome Oscillator (AO) currently suggest a positive momentum for AVAX, but the appearance of a red histogram bar on the AO warns that upward momentum may be waning. If this trend continues, AVAX could retrace to $35.01. However, a rebound at this level could trigger a significant increase, with a potential target of $51.45, representing a 68.62% surge.

目前，諸如真棒震盪指標 (AO) 等指標表明 AVAX 呈現積極勢頭，但 AO 上紅色柱狀圖的出現警告上行勢頭可能正在減弱。如果這種趨勢持續下去，AVAX 可能會回升至 35.01 美元。不過，在此水準反彈可能會引發大幅上漲，潛在目標位為 51.45 美元，漲幅達 68.62%。

Conclusion

結論

Based on this analysis, we can conclude that AVAX presents a solid upside potential. It is likely to outperform SOL in the short term, potentially leading to a market cap increase. However, it is important to recognize that the long-term performance of both tokens may not diverge significantly. While AVAX may experience notable growth, reaching SOL's current market cap is highly unlikely.

基於此分析，我們可以得出結論，AVAX 具有堅實的上漲潛力。短期內它的表現可能會超過 SOL，從而可能導致市值增加。然而，重要的是要認識到這兩種代幣的長期表現可能不會有顯著差異。雖然 AVAX 可能會經歷顯著成長，但達到 SOL 目前的市值的可能性極小。