Avalanche Poised to Soar Past Solana, Historical Data Suggests

On-chain data suggests that Avalanche's (AVAX) low social dominance, recently seen in November 2023, has historically preceded significant price rallies. The analysis indicates AVAX could surge towards $51.45 in the short term, potentially outperforming Solana (SOL), if it follows a similar pattern observed in previous cycles.

Avalanche (AVAX) Poised for Significant Price Surge, Potentially Surpassing Solana (SOL)

Recent on-chain data analysis reveals that Avalanche (AVAX) is currently at a pivotal point, indicating potential for a substantial price increase. Historical trends suggest that a similar scenario has previously led to a remarkable 4-fold increase in its value.

According to data compiled by Santiment and analyzed by AMBCrypto, AVAX's social dominance has recently reached its lowest level since November 2023, currently standing at 0.205%. This metric, which measures the relative frequency of discussions about a token compared to the top 100 cryptocurrencies, has historically served as a significant indicator of future price movements. Notably, the last time social dominance for AVAX hit this low, the token's price surged from $11.62 to $48.93 within a period of less than two months.

AVAX's Potential to Outperform SOL

During that period, AVAX and Solana (SOL) shared a close parallel in terms of price appreciation. However, despite both tokens experiencing setbacks compared to their Q4 2023 performance, SOL has maintained an edge over AVAX in Q1 2024. Over the past 90 days, SOL's price has increased by a significant 64.43%, while AVAX has recorded a more modest 18.93% gain.

Solana Ecosystem Challenges

However, the decline in AVAX's social dominance could be a catalyst for a reversal of fortunes. Historical patterns suggest that AVAX may be poised for a significant rally, potentially reaching $50.60 within the coming weeks. This is supported by the token's current price of $37.31, which indicates ample room for upward movement.

Beyond the price performance of their native tokens, the Solana ecosystem has faced challenges in other areas as well. For example, dogwifhat (WIF), the leading memecoin on Solana, has experienced a 37% price increase in the last 30 days. In contrast, Coq Inu (COQ), the leading memecoin on Avalanche, has declined by 34% during the same period. This divergence in memecoin performance indicates a higher level of interest in SOL compared to AVAX.

Technical Analysis Points to Upside Potential

Despite the recent setbacks, AVAX appears to offer a more compelling buying opportunity than SOL. Traders may find the token's current valuation attractive, potentially leading to increased liquidity and upward price pressure.

However, both SOL and AVAX face negative sentiment in the market. AVAX's Weighted Sentiment stands at -0.619, while SOL's reading is even lower at -1.023. This suggests that traders are more optimistic about AVAX's short-term bullish prospects than SOL's.

On the technical front, AVAX has established support at $32.70, preventing a further decline. However, the token faces resistance at $38.58, which has temporarily halted its upward trajectory.

Indicators such as the Awesome Oscillator (AO) currently suggest a positive momentum for AVAX, but the appearance of a red histogram bar on the AO warns that upward momentum may be waning. If this trend continues, AVAX could retrace to $35.01. However, a rebound at this level could trigger a significant increase, with a potential target of $51.45, representing a 68.62% surge.

Conclusion

Based on this analysis, we can conclude that AVAX presents a solid upside potential. It is likely to outperform SOL in the short term, potentially leading to a market cap increase. However, it is important to recognize that the long-term performance of both tokens may not diverge significantly. While AVAX may experience notable growth, reaching SOL's current market cap is highly unlikely.