Ark Invest 預計比特幣到 2030 年將飆升至 148 萬美元

Ark Invest 執行長 Cathie Wood 預測，到 2030 年，比特幣的價格可能會飆升至 148 萬美元，較當前價值潛在上漲 2,000% 以上。伍德的看漲前景取決於新興市場貨幣、高淨值人士、機構投資者和黃金投資者等來源的需求增加。 Ark Invest 的模型考慮了各種需求場景，最樂觀的預測是基於比特幣佔據了替代資產的很大一部分。然而，投資者應謹慎行事，不要只依賴價格目標，因為比特幣是一種波動性資產，其價值可能會大幅波動。

Ark Invest Predicts Staggering Potential for Bitcoin, Valuing it at $1.48 Million by 2030

Ark Invest 預測比特幣具有驚人的潛力，到 2030 年其估值將達到 148 萬美元

Cathie Wood, the renowned chief executive and chief investment officer of Ark Invest, an asset management firm specializing in disruptive technologies, has expressed remarkable optimism regarding the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. Ark Invest's groundbreaking valuation model projects Bitcoin reaching an astounding $1.48 million by 2030, a 2,000% increase from its current value of approximately $71,000.

專門從事顛覆性技術的資產管理公司 Ark Invest 的著名執行長兼首席投資長 Cathie Wood 對加密貨幣市場，尤其是比特幣表示了非常樂觀的態度。 Ark Invest 開創性的估值模型預計，到 2030 年，比特幣的價值將達到驚人的 148 萬美元，比目前約 71,000 美元的價值增長 2,000%。

The investment thesis for Bitcoin is straightforward: its price is primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics. Bitcoin's unique feature is its capped supply of 21 million coins, reinforced by periodic reductions in mining rewards known as halvings. While the supply limit is theoretically adjustable, the likelihood of such an alteration is negligible, ensuring the scarcity of Bitcoin.

比特幣的投資主題很簡單：其價格主要由供需動態驅動。比特幣的獨特之處在於其供應量上限為 2,100 萬枚，並透過定期減少採礦獎勵（稱為減半）來強化這一點。雖然供應限制理論上是可調整的，但這種改變的可能性可以忽略不計，從而確保了比特幣的稀缺性。

Conversely, demand plays a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's price. As of late December 2023, the number of wallet addresses holding at least $1,000 in Bitcoin has reached an unprecedented peak, indicating a growing demand.

相反，需求在決定比特幣價格方面起著至關重要的作用。截至 2023 年 12 月下旬，持有至少 1,000 美元比特幣的錢包地址數量達到了前所未有的峰值，顯示需求不斷增長。

Ark Invest's valuation model for Bitcoin postulates three potential price trajectories through the end of the decade:

Ark Invest 的比特幣估值模型假設了本世紀末的三種潛在價格軌跡：

• Bear case: $258,500 (360% upside)
• Base case: $682,800 (960% upside)
• Bull case: $1.48 million (2,100% upside)

Ark Invest has identified eight potential sources of demand that could contribute to Bitcoin's price appreciation. However, the primary drivers are believed to be:

熊市狀況：258,500 美元（上漲360%） 基本情況：682,800 美元（上漲960%） 牛市情況：148 萬美元（上漲2,100%） Ark Invest 已經確定了八個可能有助於比特幣價格升值的潛在需求來源。然而，主要驅動因素被認為是：

• Emerging market currencies: Ark estimates Bitcoin will account for 0.5% (bear) to 10% (bull) of currency in emerging markets by 2030.
• High-net-worth individuals (HNWIs): Ark predicts Bitcoin will comprise 1% (bear) to 5% (bull) of assets held by HNWIs by 2030.
• Institutional investors: Ark projects Bitcoin will represent 1% (bear) to 6.5% (bull) of institutional assets by 2030.
• Gold: Ark anticipates Bitcoin will capture 20% (bear) to 50% (bull) of cash retail investors would have otherwise allocated to gold by 2030.

Despite the absence of complete fulfillment of the bear-case conditions, Bitcoin exhibits positive momentum towards the bullish scenario. Growing adoption in emerging and developing economies, coupled with increasing investment intentions expressed by institutional investors, bolster Bitcoin's potential.

新興市場貨幣：Ark 預計到2030 年，比特幣將佔新興市場貨幣的0.5%（熊市）至10%（牛市）。高淨值個人(HNWI)：Ark 預測比特幣將佔新興市場貨幣的1%（熊市）至10%（多頭市場）。到2030 年，富裕人士持有的資產將佔5%（牛市）。機構投資者：Ark 預計到2030 年，比特幣將佔機構資產的1%（熊市）至6.5%（多頭市場）。黃金：Ark 預計比特幣將佔20%（熊市）到2030 年，50%（牛市）的現金散戶投資者將配置為黃金。儘管熊市條件尚未完全滿足，但比特幣表現出了看漲情景的正面勢頭。新興和發展中經濟體的日益普及，加上機構投資者表達的投資意願不斷增加，增強了比特幣的潛力。

Recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are expected to further unlock demand among HNWIs, retail investors, and institutional money managers by providing convenient and regulated access to the cryptocurrency. Cathie Wood has expressed increased confidence in the bull-case price trajectory as a result of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

最近批准的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）預計將透過提供便利且受監管的加密貨​​幣存取方式，進一步釋放富裕人士、散戶投資者和機構資金管理者的需求。 Cathie Wood 表示，由於現貨比特幣 ETF 獲得批准，對牛市價格軌蹟的信心增強。

While Bitcoin holds significant potential, it is essential to emphasize its volatility and inherent risks. Investors are advised against fixating on specific price targets and should make investment decisions based on their understanding of the asset and their own risk tolerance.

雖然比特幣擁有巨大潛力，但有必要強調其波動性和固有風險。建議投資人不要固定特定的價格目標，應根據自己對資產的了解和自身風險承受能力做出投資決定。

Bitcoin's impressive returns over the last five years have outperformed other major asset classes, and long-term holders have consistently profited. However, Bitcoin has also experienced periods of significant price fluctuations, with drops of over 50% from record highs.

過去五年，比特幣的報酬率令人印象深刻，優於其他主要資產類別，長期持有者持續獲利。然而，比特幣也經歷了價格大幅波動的時期，較歷史高點下跌了 50% 以上。

In summary, Bitcoin is a volatile investment suitable for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term perspective. Those who meet these criteria may consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to Bitcoin.

綜上所述，比特幣是一種波動較大的投資，適合具有長期眼光、能承受風險的投資者。符合這些標準的人可以考慮將其投資組合的一部分分配給比特幣。