Ark Invest 预计比特币到 2030 年将飙升至 148 万美元

Ark Invest 首席执行官 Cathie Wood 预测，到 2030 年，比特币的价格可能会飙升至 148 万美元，较当前价值潜在上涨 2,000% 以上。伍德的看涨前景取决于新兴市场货币、高净值个人、机构投资者和黄金投资者等来源的需求增加。 Ark Invest 的模型考虑了各种需求场景，最乐观的预测是基于比特币占据了替代资产的很大一部分。然而，投资者应谨慎行事，不要仅仅依赖价格目标，因为比特币是一种波动性资产，其价值可能会出现大幅波动。

Ark Invest Predicts Staggering Potential for Bitcoin, Valuing it at $1.48 Million by 2030

Ark Invest 预测比特币具有惊人的潜力，到 2030 年其估值将达到 148 万美元

Cathie Wood, the renowned chief executive and chief investment officer of Ark Invest, an asset management firm specializing in disruptive technologies, has expressed remarkable optimism regarding the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. Ark Invest's groundbreaking valuation model projects Bitcoin reaching an astounding $1.48 million by 2030, a 2,000% increase from its current value of approximately $71,000.

专门从事颠覆性技术的资产管理公司 Ark Invest 的著名首席执行官兼首席投资官 Cathie Wood 对加密货币市场，尤其是比特币表示了非常乐观的态度。 Ark Invest 开创性的估值模型预计，到 2030 年，比特币的价值将达到惊人的 148 万美元，比目前约 71,000 美元的价值增长 2,000%。

The investment thesis for Bitcoin is straightforward: its price is primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics. Bitcoin's unique feature is its capped supply of 21 million coins, reinforced by periodic reductions in mining rewards known as halvings. While the supply limit is theoretically adjustable, the likelihood of such an alteration is negligible, ensuring the scarcity of Bitcoin.

比特币的投资主题很简单：其价格主要由供需动态驱动。比特币的独特之处在于其供应量上限为 2100 万枚，并通过定期减少采矿奖励（称为减半）来强化这一点。虽然供应限制理论上是可调整的，但这种改变的可能性可以忽略不计，从而确保了比特币的稀缺性。

Conversely, demand plays a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's price. As of late December 2023, the number of wallet addresses holding at least $1,000 in Bitcoin has reached an unprecedented peak, indicating a growing demand.

相反，需求在决定比特币价格方面起着至关重要的作用。截至 2023 年 12 月下旬，持有至少 1,000 美元比特币的钱包地址数量达到了前所未有的峰值，表明需求不断增长。

Ark Invest's valuation model for Bitcoin postulates three potential price trajectories through the end of the decade:

Ark Invest 的比特币估值模型假设了本世纪末的三种潜在价格轨迹：

• Bear case: $258,500 (360% upside)
• Base case: $682,800 (960% upside)
• Bull case: $1.48 million (2,100% upside)

Ark Invest has identified eight potential sources of demand that could contribute to Bitcoin's price appreciation. However, the primary drivers are believed to be:

熊市情况：258,500 美元（上涨 360%） 基本情况：682,800 美元（上涨 960%） 牛市情况：148 万美元（上涨 2,100%） Ark Invest 已经确定了八个可能有助于比特币价格升值的潜在需求来源。然而，主要驱动因素被认为是：

• Emerging market currencies: Ark estimates Bitcoin will account for 0.5% (bear) to 10% (bull) of currency in emerging markets by 2030.
• High-net-worth individuals (HNWIs): Ark predicts Bitcoin will comprise 1% (bear) to 5% (bull) of assets held by HNWIs by 2030.
• Institutional investors: Ark projects Bitcoin will represent 1% (bear) to 6.5% (bull) of institutional assets by 2030.
• Gold: Ark anticipates Bitcoin will capture 20% (bear) to 50% (bull) of cash retail investors would have otherwise allocated to gold by 2030.

Despite the absence of complete fulfillment of the bear-case conditions, Bitcoin exhibits positive momentum towards the bullish scenario. Growing adoption in emerging and developing economies, coupled with increasing investment intentions expressed by institutional investors, bolster Bitcoin's potential.

新兴市场货币：Ark 预计到 2030 年，比特币将占新兴市场货币的 0.5%（熊市）至 10%（牛市）。 高净值个人 (HNWI)：Ark 预测比特币将占新兴市场货币的 1%（熊市）至 10%（牛市）。到 2030 年，富裕人士持有的资产将占 5%（牛市）。机构投资者：Ark 预计到 2030 年，比特币将占机构资产的 1%（熊市）至 6.5%（牛市）。黄金：Ark 预计比特币将占 20%（熊市）到 2030 年，50%（牛市）的现金散户投资者将配置为黄金。尽管熊市条件尚未完全满足，但比特币表现出了看涨情景的积极势头。新兴和发展中经济体的日益普及，加上机构投资者表达的投资意向不断增加，增强了比特币的潜力。

Recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are expected to further unlock demand among HNWIs, retail investors, and institutional money managers by providing convenient and regulated access to the cryptocurrency. Cathie Wood has expressed increased confidence in the bull-case price trajectory as a result of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

最近批准的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）预计将通过提供便捷且受监管的加密货币访问方式，进一步释放富裕人士、散户投资者和机构资金管理者的需求。 Cathie Wood 表示，由于现货比特币 ETF 获得批准，对牛市价格轨迹的信心增强。

While Bitcoin holds significant potential, it is essential to emphasize its volatility and inherent risks. Investors are advised against fixating on specific price targets and should make investment decisions based on their understanding of the asset and their own risk tolerance.

虽然比特币拥有巨大潜力，但有必要强调其波动性和固有风险。建议投资者不要固定具体的价格目标，应根据自己对资产的了解和自身风险承受能力做出投资决定。

Bitcoin's impressive returns over the last five years have outperformed other major asset classes, and long-term holders have consistently profited. However, Bitcoin has also experienced periods of significant price fluctuations, with drops of over 50% from record highs.

过去五年，比特币的回报率令人印象深刻，优于其他主要资产类别，长期持有者持续获利。然而，比特币也经历了价格大幅波动的时期，较历史高位下跌了 50% 以上。

In summary, Bitcoin is a volatile investment suitable for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term perspective. Those who meet these criteria may consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to Bitcoin.

综上所述，比特币是一种波动较大的投资，适合具有长期眼光、能承受风险的投资者。符合这些标准的人可以考虑将其投资组合的一部分分配给比特币。