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正在進行的加密貨幣市場週期一直由比特幣(BTC)和迷因幣主導。由於模因幣在市場中所佔份額並不大
The ongoing crypto market cycle has been dominated by Bitcoin (BTC) and meme coins. Due to meme coins not having a significant share of the cryptocurrency market cap, the Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) has increased considerably in the current cycle.
正在進行的加密貨幣市場週期一直由比特幣(BTC)和迷因幣主導。由於迷因幣在加密貨幣市值中所佔份額並不大,比特幣主導率(BTCD)在當前週期中大幅上升。
The much-publicized underperformance of Ethereum has waned the hopes of a possible altseason starting this year. Let’s take a look at some important charts that can help ascertain if one will follow this cycle.
廣為人知的以太坊表現不佳,已經削弱了今年開始可能出現山寨幣季節的希望。讓我們來看看一些重要的圖表,它們可以幫助確定人們是否會遵循這個週期。
Altseason in the Previous Cycle
上一個週期的 Altseason
Altseason can be defined as a period when the altcoin market cap increases faster than Bitcoin.
山寨幣季節可以定義為山寨幣市值成長速度快於比特幣的時期。
Starting in Sept. 2020, 119 days after the halving, the Bitcoin price began to appreciate, increasing by 310% in 84 days (black). While the altcoin market cap also moved upward, it did so at a much slower rate of 180%.
從2020年9月開始,減半後119天,比特幣價格開始升值,84天內上漲310%(黑色)。雖然山寨幣市值也有所上升,但上漲速度要慢得多,為 180%。
In this period, the Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) increased because altcoins underperformed.
在此期間,由於山寨幣表現不佳,比特幣主導率(BTCD)上升。
However, the actual altseason started in January 2021 (black icon) after BTC suffered its first minor correction.
然而,真正的山寨幣季節是在 2021 年 1 月(黑色圖標)比特幣遭受第一次小幅調整後開始的。
In the 49 days following that (green), BTC increased by 37% while the ALTCAP by 111%. This was the first portion of altseason.
此後的 49 天(綠色),BTC 上漲了 37%,而 ALTCAP 上漲了 111%。這是山寨季的第一部。
Then, the most rapid portion of altseason lasted 70 days (yellow).
然後,山寨季最快速的部分持續了 70 天(黃色)。
During this time, BTC barely moved, but altcoins increased by 194%. The altcoin season lasted for four months, with a brief weekly decline in between.
在此期間,BTC 幾乎沒有變動,但山寨幣卻上漲了 194%。山寨幣季節持續了四個月,其間每週都有短暫的下跌。
In the current cycle, there have been 168 days since the halving, but the price of BTC and that of the altcoin market cap have fallen for 210 days. So, the current cycle is dissimilar to the previous one concerning altcoin season.
在本週期中,距離減半已經過了168天,但BTC價格和山寨幣市值已經下跌了210天。因此,當前的周期與上一個有關山寨幣季節的周期不同。
Currently, the Altcoin Season Index indicator gives a reading of 33, indicating that we are still very close to Bitcoin season.
目前,山寨幣季節指數指標的讀數為 33,顯示我們仍然非常接近比特幣季節。
Can Altcoins Break Out?
山寨幣能否突破?
The altcoin market cap has fallen since the March yearly high of $1.27 trillion. The decrease is contained inside a descending parallel channel. On Aug. 5, it led to a low of $721 billion.
自 3 月 1.27 兆美元的年度高點以來,山寨幣市值已經下跌。下降包含在下降的平行通道內。 8 月 5 日,其跌至 7,210 億美元的低點。
At the time, the ALTCAP seemed to have broken down from its channel. However, ALTCAP bounced afterward, creating a long lower wick (white circle) and reclaiming the channel.
當時,ALTCAP 似乎已經脫離了它的管道。然而,ALTCAP 隨後反彈,形成一個較長的下影線(白色圓圈)並收回通道。
Besides the price action, the wave count is bullish. According to it, ALTCAP has completed a fourth-wave pullback and started its fifth and final wave.
除了價格走勢之外,波浪數也看漲。據其稱,ALTCAP已經完成了第四波回調,並開始了第五波也是最後一波。
If this is true, the altcoin market cap can increase by 82%, reaching the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the decline.
如果這是真的,山寨幣市值可能會增加 82%,達到跌幅的 1.61 外部斐波那契回檔位。
Well-known analyst Dentoshi also believes a breakout from the current pattern will lead to a massive price rally.
著名分析師 Dentoshi 也認為,突破當前格局將導致價格大幅上漲。
ALTCAP must break out from the channel despite the bounce to confirm its upward movement. If this were to happen, it would also turn the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) bullish.
儘管反彈,但 ALTCAP 必須突破通道才能確認其向上走勢。如果這種情況發生,相對強弱指數 (RSI) 和移動平均線收斂/發散 (MACD) 也會轉為看漲。
Currently, the RSI has broken out from its trend line but is still below 50, while the MACD attempts to make a bullish cross at 0.
目前,RSI已突破趨勢線,但仍低於50,而MACD試圖在0處形成看漲交叉。
Bitcoin Dominance Top
比特幣主導地位最高
Finally, the chart that points to an imminent altseason is that of the Bitcoin Dominance Rate, which has created several signals that could lead to a bearish trend reversal.
最後,指向即將到來的山寨季節的圖表是比特幣主導率的圖表,該圖表已經產生了多個可能導致看跌趨勢逆轉的訊號。
Firstly, the wave count is bearish. The most likely count shows a five-wave upward movement (white) nearing completion, where wave five is an ending diagonal. The ascending wedge that creates the diagonal is ending, as evidenced by the sub-wave count (black).
首先,浪數看跌。最有可能的計數顯示五浪向上運動(白色)接近完成,其中第五浪是結束對角線。形成對角線的上升楔形正在結束,子浪計數(黑色)證明了這一點。
Secondly, the weekly RSI and MACD have generated lengthy bearish divergences, increasing the likelihood of a decline.
其次,每週 RSI 和 MACD 已形成長期看跌背離,增加了下跌的可能性。
Finally, the price trades inside the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance area, a likely zone for a reversal. The wedge’s resistance trendline is also within this area.
最後,價格在 0.5-0.618 斐波那契回撤阻力區域內交易,該區域可能出現反轉。楔形的阻力趨勢線也在該區域內。
So, the BTCD readings suggest that despite their underperformance, altcoins will likely begin a period in which they will outperform Bitcoin soon.
因此,BTCD 讀數表明,儘管山寨幣表現不佳,但它們可能很快就會開始跑贏比特幣的時期。
A breakdown from the wedge’s support trendline at 0.56 will confirm this.
楔形支撐趨勢線 0.56 的突破將證實這一點。
Altcoin Season Still Possible
山寨幣季節仍有可能
Even though the current cycle has not been kind to altcoins, the BTCD shows signs of a potential top.
儘管當前的周期對山寨幣不利,但 BTCD 顯示出潛在見頂的跡象。
Along with a potential breakout in the altcoin market cap, the combination of the two movements could finally lead to a several-month altcoin season.
隨著山寨幣市值的潛在突破,這兩種走勢的結合最終可能會導致長達數月的山寨幣季節。
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