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正在进行的加密货币市场周期一直由比特币(BTC)和模因币主导。由于模因币在市场中所占份额并不大
The ongoing crypto market cycle has been dominated by Bitcoin (BTC) and meme coins. Due to meme coins not having a significant share of the cryptocurrency market cap, the Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) has increased considerably in the current cycle.
正在进行的加密货币市场周期一直由比特币(BTC)和模因币主导。由于模因币在加密货币市值中所占份额并不大,比特币主导率(BTCD)在当前周期中大幅上升。
The much-publicized underperformance of Ethereum has waned the hopes of a possible altseason starting this year. Let’s take a look at some important charts that can help ascertain if one will follow this cycle.
广为人知的以太坊表现不佳,已经削弱了今年开始可能出现山寨币季节的希望。让我们看一下一些重要的图表,它们可以帮助确定人们是否会遵循这一周期。
Altseason in the Previous Cycle
上一个周期的 Altseason
Altseason can be defined as a period when the altcoin market cap increases faster than Bitcoin.
山寨币季节可以定义为山寨币市值增长速度快于比特币的时期。
Starting in Sept. 2020, 119 days after the halving, the Bitcoin price began to appreciate, increasing by 310% in 84 days (black). While the altcoin market cap also moved upward, it did so at a much slower rate of 180%.
从2020年9月开始,减半后119天,比特币价格开始升值,84天内上涨310%(黑色)。虽然山寨币市值也有所上升,但上涨速度要慢得多,为 180%。
In this period, the Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) increased because altcoins underperformed.
在此期间,由于山寨币表现不佳,比特币主导率(BTCD)上升。
However, the actual altseason started in January 2021 (black icon) after BTC suffered its first minor correction.
然而,真正的山寨币季节是在 2021 年 1 月(黑色图标)比特币遭受第一次小幅调整后开始的。
In the 49 days following that (green), BTC increased by 37% while the ALTCAP by 111%. This was the first portion of altseason.
此后的 49 天(绿色),BTC 上涨了 37%,而 ALTCAP 上涨了 111%。这是山寨季的第一部分。
Then, the most rapid portion of altseason lasted 70 days (yellow).
然后,山寨季最快速的部分持续了 70 天(黄色)。
During this time, BTC barely moved, but altcoins increased by 194%. The altcoin season lasted for four months, with a brief weekly decline in between.
在此期间,BTC 几乎没有变动,但山寨币却上涨了 194%。山寨币季节持续了四个月,其间每周都有短暂的下跌。
In the current cycle, there have been 168 days since the halving, but the price of BTC and that of the altcoin market cap have fallen for 210 days. So, the current cycle is dissimilar to the previous one concerning altcoin season.
在本周期中,距离减半已经过去了168天,但BTC价格和山寨币市值已经下跌了210天。因此,当前的周期与上一个有关山寨币季节的周期不同。
Currently, the Altcoin Season Index indicator gives a reading of 33, indicating that we are still very close to Bitcoin season.
目前,山寨币季节指数指标的读数为 33,表明我们仍然非常接近比特币季节。
Can Altcoins Break Out?
山寨币能否突破?
The altcoin market cap has fallen since the March yearly high of $1.27 trillion. The decrease is contained inside a descending parallel channel. On Aug. 5, it led to a low of $721 billion.
自 3 月份 1.27 万亿美元的年度高点以来,山寨币市值已经下跌。下降包含在下降的平行通道内。 8 月 5 日,其跌至 7,210 亿美元的低点。
At the time, the ALTCAP seemed to have broken down from its channel. However, ALTCAP bounced afterward, creating a long lower wick (white circle) and reclaiming the channel.
当时,ALTCAP 似乎已经脱离了它的渠道。然而,ALTCAP 随后反弹,形成一个较长的下影线(白色圆圈)并收回通道。
Besides the price action, the wave count is bullish. According to it, ALTCAP has completed a fourth-wave pullback and started its fifth and final wave.
除了价格走势之外,波浪数也看涨。据其称,ALTCAP已经完成了第四波回调,并开始了第五波也是最后一波。
If this is true, the altcoin market cap can increase by 82%, reaching the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the decline.
如果这是真的,山寨币市值可能会增加 82%,达到跌幅的 1.61 外部斐波那契回撤位。
Well-known analyst Dentoshi also believes a breakout from the current pattern will lead to a massive price rally.
著名分析师 Dentoshi 也认为,突破当前格局将导致价格大幅上涨。
ALTCAP must break out from the channel despite the bounce to confirm its upward movement. If this were to happen, it would also turn the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) bullish.
尽管反弹,但 ALTCAP 必须突破通道才能确认其向上走势。如果这种情况发生,相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均线收敛/发散 (MACD) 也会转为看涨。
Currently, the RSI has broken out from its trend line but is still below 50, while the MACD attempts to make a bullish cross at 0.
目前,RSI已突破趋势线,但仍低于50,而MACD试图在0处形成看涨交叉。
Bitcoin Dominance Top
比特币主导地位最高
Finally, the chart that points to an imminent altseason is that of the Bitcoin Dominance Rate, which has created several signals that could lead to a bearish trend reversal.
最后,指向即将到来的山寨季节的图表是比特币主导率的图表,该图表已经产生了多个可能导致看跌趋势逆转的信号。
Firstly, the wave count is bearish. The most likely count shows a five-wave upward movement (white) nearing completion, where wave five is an ending diagonal. The ascending wedge that creates the diagonal is ending, as evidenced by the sub-wave count (black).
首先,浪数看跌。最有可能的计数显示五浪向上运动(白色)接近完成,其中第五浪是结束对角线。形成对角线的上升楔形正在结束,子浪计数(黑色)证明了这一点。
Secondly, the weekly RSI and MACD have generated lengthy bearish divergences, increasing the likelihood of a decline.
其次,每周 RSI 和 MACD 已形成长期看跌背离,增加了下跌的可能性。
Finally, the price trades inside the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance area, a likely zone for a reversal. The wedge’s resistance trendline is also within this area.
最后,价格在 0.5-0.618 斐波那契回撤阻力区域内交易,该区域可能出现反转。楔形的阻力趋势线也在该区域内。
So, the BTCD readings suggest that despite their underperformance, altcoins will likely begin a period in which they will outperform Bitcoin soon.
因此,BTCD 读数表明,尽管山寨币表现不佳,但它们可能很快就会开始跑赢比特币的时期。
A breakdown from the wedge’s support trendline at 0.56 will confirm this.
楔形支撑趋势线 0.56 的突破将证实这一点。
Altcoin Season Still Possible
山寨币季节仍有可能
Even though the current cycle has not been kind to altcoins, the BTCD shows signs of a potential top.
尽管当前的周期对山寨币不利,但 BTCD 显示出潜在见顶的迹象。
Along with a potential breakout in the altcoin market cap, the combination of the two movements could finally lead to a several-month altcoin season.
随着山寨币市值的潜在突破,这两种走势的结合最终可能会导致长达数月的山寨币季节。
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