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根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Amr Taha 的一篇文章,比特币最近在其关键指标上看到了一个相当有趣的趋势,表明比特币未来将出现重大变化。
A recent post by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha highlights some interesting trends in key Bitcoin metrics, suggesting a potential significant market movement ahead.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Amr Taha 最近发表的一篇文章强调了关键比特币指标的一些有趣趋势,表明未来可能出现重大市场变动。
The post, shared on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, dives into changes in long-term and short-term holder behavior of Bitcoin, as well as realized profit and loss figures.
这篇在 CryptoQuant QuickTake 平台上分享的帖子深入探讨了比特币长期和短期持有者行为的变化,以及已实现的损益数据。
Crucial Bitcoin Metrics Suggesting Market Shifts
表明市场变化的重要比特币指标
Taha begins by explaining the fundamental difference between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders. Short-term holders (STH) are traders who engage in brief buying and selling activities, often employing strategies like day trading or swing trading to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
塔哈首先解释了短期和长期比特币持有者之间的根本区别。短期持有者(STH)是进行短暂买卖活动的交易者,通常采用日内交易或波段交易等策略来利用比特币的价格波动。
On the other hand, long-term holders (LTH) adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, aiming for long-term gains by holding onto their Bitcoin for extended periods. This distinction sets the stage for understanding the recent changes in market activity.
另一方面,长期持有者(LTH)采取买入并持有策略,旨在通过长期持有比特币来获得长期收益。这种区别为理解市场活动的近期变化奠定了基础。
In his analysis, Taha noted a sharp decline in the realized capitalization for long-term holders, which dropped from $19 billion to -$5 billion. This indicates that long-term holders have been taking profits or closing their positions, potentially signaling reduced confidence in further price gains.
塔哈在分析中指出,长期持有者的已实现资本急剧下降,从 190 亿美元降至 50 亿美元。这表明长期持有者已经获利了结或平仓,可能表明对价格进一步上涨的信心下降。
On the flip side, short-term holders have increased their buying activity, with their realized capitalization rising from -$17 billion to $11 billion. This suggests that short-term traders either take on more risk or bet on potential price increases, creating a more volatile market environment.
另一方面,短期持有者增加了购买活动,其已实现资本从 - 170 亿美元增至 110 亿美元。这表明短期交易者要么承担更多风险,要么押注潜在的价格上涨,从而造成更加不稳定的市场环境。
Additionally, Taha touched on the Korea Premium Index, often called the “Kimchi Premium.” This index tracks the price difference between Bitcoin traded on South Korean and global exchanges.
此外,塔哈还谈到了韩国溢价指数,通常被称为“泡菜溢价”。该指数追踪韩国和全球交易所交易的比特币之间的价格差异。
Currently, the index is near zero or negative, meaning Bitcoin is trading at a lower price in South Korea than the rest of the world.
目前,该指数接近于零或为负值,这意味着比特币在韩国的交易价格低于世界其他地区。
This implies reduced buying pressure from Korean traders, who have historically played a large role in increasing cryptocurrency prices due to the local trading culture. A negative premium suggests low demand from South Korean investors, potentially adding to the market’s uncertainty.
这意味着韩国交易员的购买压力减少,由于当地的交易文化,韩国交易员历来在加密货币价格上涨方面发挥了重要作用。负溢价表明韩国投资者的需求较低,可能会增加市场的不确定性。
Net Realized Profit And Loss Trends
已实现净损益趋势
Another key metric Taha focused on is Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss (NRPL), which tracks market participants’ total net profit or loss.
Taha 关注的另一个关键指标是比特币的净实现损益(NRPL),它跟踪市场参与者的净利润或损失总额。
Positive NRPL values indicate that more investors are taking profits, while negative values suggest more losses are being realized. Currently, the NRPL is approaching a critical $4 billion mark.
正的 NRPL 值表明更多的投资者正在获利,而负值表明更多的损失正在实现。目前,NRPL 已接近 40 亿美元的关键大关。
Taha highlighted that crossing the $4 billion threshold in past market cycles has often coincided with significant market peaks or troughs.
Taha 强调,在过去的市场周期中,突破 40 亿美元的门槛往往与重大的市场高峰或低谷同时发生。
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