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根據 CryptoQuant 分析師 Amr Taha 的一篇文章,比特幣最近在其關鍵指標上看到了一個相當有趣的趨勢,表明比特幣未來將出現重大變化。
A recent post by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha highlights some interesting trends in key Bitcoin metrics, suggesting a potential significant market movement ahead.
CryptoQuant 分析師 Amr Taha 最近發表的一篇文章強調了關鍵比特幣指標的一些有趣趨勢,表明未來可能會出現重大市場變動。
The post, shared on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, dives into changes in long-term and short-term holder behavior of Bitcoin, as well as realized profit and loss figures.
這篇在 CryptoQuant QuickTake 平台上分享的文章深入探討了比特幣長期和短期持有者行為的變化,以及已實現的損益數據。
Crucial Bitcoin Metrics Suggesting Market Shifts
顯示市場變化的重要比特幣指標
Taha begins by explaining the fundamental difference between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders. Short-term holders (STH) are traders who engage in brief buying and selling activities, often employing strategies like day trading or swing trading to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
塔哈首先解釋了短期和長期比特幣持有者之間的根本差異。短期持有者(STH)是進行短暫買賣活動的交易者,通常採用日內交易或波段交易等策略來利用比特幣的價格波動。
On the other hand, long-term holders (LTH) adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, aiming for long-term gains by holding onto their Bitcoin for extended periods. This distinction sets the stage for understanding the recent changes in market activity.
另一方面,長期持有者(LTH)採取買入並持有策略,旨在透過長期持有比特幣來獲得長期收益。這種差異為理解市場活動的近期變化奠定了基礎。
In his analysis, Taha noted a sharp decline in the realized capitalization for long-term holders, which dropped from $19 billion to -$5 billion. This indicates that long-term holders have been taking profits or closing their positions, potentially signaling reduced confidence in further price gains.
塔哈在分析中指出,長期持有者的已實現資本急劇下降,從 190 億美元降至 50 億美元。這表明長期持有者已經獲利了結或平倉,可能表明對價格進一步上漲的信心下降。
On the flip side, short-term holders have increased their buying activity, with their realized capitalization rising from -$17 billion to $11 billion. This suggests that short-term traders either take on more risk or bet on potential price increases, creating a more volatile market environment.
另一方面,短期持有者增加了購買活動,其已實現資本從 - 170 億美元增至 110 億美元。這表明短期交易者要么承擔更多風險,要么押注潛在的價格上漲,從而造成更不穩定的市場環境。
Additionally, Taha touched on the Korea Premium Index, often called the “Kimchi Premium.” This index tracks the price difference between Bitcoin traded on South Korean and global exchanges.
此外,塔哈還談到了韓國溢價指數,通常被稱為「泡菜溢價」。該指數追蹤韓國和全球交易所交易的比特幣之間的價格差異。
Currently, the index is near zero or negative, meaning Bitcoin is trading at a lower price in South Korea than the rest of the world.
目前,該指數接近零或為負值,這意味著比特幣在韓國的交易價格低於世界其他地區。
This implies reduced buying pressure from Korean traders, who have historically played a large role in increasing cryptocurrency prices due to the local trading culture. A negative premium suggests low demand from South Korean investors, potentially adding to the market’s uncertainty.
這意味著韓國交易員的購買壓力減少,由於當地的交易文化,韓國交易員歷來在加密貨幣價格上漲方面發揮了重要作用。負溢價表示韓國投資者的需求較低,可能會增加市場的不確定性。
Net Realized Profit And Loss Trends
已實現淨損益趨勢
Another key metric Taha focused on is Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss (NRPL), which tracks market participants’ total net profit or loss.
Taha 關注的另一個關鍵指標是比特幣的淨實現損益(NRPL),它追蹤市場參與者的淨利潤或損失總額。
Positive NRPL values indicate that more investors are taking profits, while negative values suggest more losses are being realized. Currently, the NRPL is approaching a critical $4 billion mark.
正的 NRPL 值表示有更多的投資者正在獲利,而負值表示更多的損失正在實現。目前,NRPL 已接近 40 億美元的關鍵大關。
Taha highlighted that crossing the $4 billion threshold in past market cycles has often coincided with significant market peaks or troughs.
Taha 強調,在過去的市場週期中,突破 40 億美元的門檻往往與重大的市場高峰或低谷同時發生。
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