山寨幣季節何時到來？比特幣 [BTC] 價格可能需要超過 8 萬美元才能引發反彈

第三季度，市場情緒普遍看跌山寨幣，比特幣 [BTC] 的主導地位升至 57% 左右，創下歷史新高。

Market sentiment was generally bearish for altcoins in Q3, with Bitcoin [BTC] dominance rising to around 57%, recording a new all-time high. The Altcoin Season Index currently reads 35, after hitting its lowest point in mid-August.

第三季度，市場情緒普遍看跌山寨幣，比特幣 [BTC] 的主導地位升至 57% 左右，創下歷史新高。山寨幣季節指數在 8 月中旬觸及最低點後，目前為 35。

Typically, altcoins tend to perform well after Bitcoin dominance peaks. As Bitcoin captures market share early in a cycle, capital often shifts to altcoins once BTC dominance begins to fade. This cycle benefits altcoins, as investors seek higher-risk, higher-reward assets.

通常，山寨幣往往會在比特幣主導地位達到頂峰後表現良好。由於比特幣在一個週期的早期佔據了市場份額，一旦比特幣的主導地位開始消退，資本通常會轉向山寨幣。這個週期有利於山寨幣，因為投資者尋求更高風險、更高回報的資產。

From a statistical standpoint, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to grow by approximately $280 billion to fall within the 62%-70% range for an altcoin season to kickstart. This growth is likely to occur when BTC hits $80K, among various other metrics.

從統計的角度來看，比特幣的市值需要成長約 2,800 億美元才能落入 62%-70% 的範圍內，山寨幣季節才會開始。當 BTC 等各種指標達到 8 萬美元時，這種增長可能會發生。

High Bitcoin dominance is crucial

比特幣的高度主導地位至關重要

Over time, Bitcoin’s dominance has significantly declined, dropping from 90% in 2013 – when the market was still in its infancy – to a low of 39% in 2021, as altcoins began to gain traction.

隨著時間的推移，隨著山寨幣開始受到關注，比特幣的主導地位已顯著下降，從 2013 年市場仍處於起步階段的 90% 降至 2021 年的 39% 低點。

Each altcoin season has been driven by specific catalysts, like the launch of new cryptocurrencies, technological innovations such as ERC-20 tokens, and broader trends like DeFi and NFTs.

每個山寨幣季節都是由特定的催化劑推動的，例如新加密貨幣的推出、ERC-20 代幣等技術創新以及 DeFi 和 NFT 等更廣泛的趨勢。

This suggests that beyond Bitcoin’s market share, individual contributions from altcoins will also play a critical role in sparking the next altcoin season.

這表明，除了比特幣的市場份額之外，山寨幣的個人貢獻也將在引發下一個山寨幣季節中發揮關鍵作用。

Currently, altcoin market standings are too limited to drive a season independently, as altcoin losses often rely on Bitcoin’s returns for stability. For a shift to occur, Bitcoin would likely need to lead with an initial rise.

目前，山寨幣市場排名太有限，無法獨立推動一個季度的發展，因為山寨幣的損失往往依賴比特幣的回報來保持穩定。為了發生轉變，比特幣可能需要先上漲。

This trend suggests Bitcoin’s price may need to exceed $80,000 to achieve a BTC dominance above 65%, which could trigger substantial capital inflows into the altcoin market.

這一趨勢表明，比特幣的價格可能需要超過 8 萬美元才能實現 65% 以上的主導地位，這可能會引發大量資本流入山寨幣市場。

Need for high risk appetite

需要高風險偏好

In a recent report, AMBCrypto highlighted an emerging shift in the altcoin market, calling for strategic measures from Ethereum developers to counter growing competition.

在最近的一份報告中，AMBCrypto 強調了山寨幣市場正在發生的轉變，並呼籲以太坊開發商採取策略措施來應對日益激烈的競爭。

Internally, this demands careful assessment, while externally, Bitcoin’s appeal suffers from a widening risk deficit, indirectly hampering altcoins from receiving their due momentum.

從內部來看，這需要仔細評估，而從外部來看，比特幣的吸引力因風險赤字擴大而受到影響，間接阻礙了山寨幣獲得應有的動力。

As gold prices reach new highs, driven by interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin’s stagnant performance underscores limited market risk appetite for crypto.

隨著金價在降息和地緣政治緊張局勢的推動下創下新高，比特幣的停滯表現凸顯市場對加密貨幣的風險偏好有限。

Historically, an upward trend in the BTC/Gold ratio has been aligned with altcoin season. Therefore, the current decline in risk appetite negatively impacts altcoin performance, indicating that a rising BTC/Gold ratio could serve as a signal for more favorable conditions ahead.

從歷史上看，比特幣/黃金比率的上升趨勢與山寨幣季節一致。因此，當前風險偏好的下降對山寨幣的表現產生了負面影響，這表明比特幣/黃金比率的上升可能是未來條件更有利的訊號。

In short, as BTC undergoes a pullback, the declining BTC/Gold ratio reflects a shift of investors toward perceived safe-haven assets, which undermines Bitcoin’s appeal as a long-term store of value.

簡而言之，隨著比特幣的回調，比特幣/黃金比率的下降反映出投資者轉向被視為避險資產，這削弱了比特幣作為長期價值儲存手段的吸引力。

This migration highlights the importance of market confidence in BTC’s role as a “digital gold” to support a broader altcoin rally – a rally likely to stabilize once BTC approaches the $80K mark.

這一遷移凸顯了市場對 BTC 作為「數位黃金」角色的信心對於支持更廣泛的山寨幣反彈的重要性——一旦 BTC 接近 8 萬美元大關，反彈可能會穩定下來。

Less ETF driven momentum

ETF 驅動動力減弱

Another factor is the relationship between Bitcoin’s price surge and ETFs. While ETF-driven rallies are generally positive, the impact on altcoins can vary.

另一個因素是比特幣價格飆升與ETF之間的關係。雖然 ETF 驅動的反彈總體上是積極的，但對山寨幣的影響可能有所不同。

The ETF market has experienced significant growth in 2024.

ETF 市場在 2024 年經歷了顯著成長。

However, when ETFs lead market momentum, funds tend to remain within Bitcoin or Ether rather than rotating into altcoins, as mainstream investors often have limited direct access to them. Instead, capital is likely to flow into crypto-related stocks.

然而，當 ETF 引領市場動能時，資金往往會留在比特幣或以太幣中，而不是轉向山寨幣，因為主流投資者直接接觸它們的機會往往有限。相反，資金可能會流入加密貨幣相關股票。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 2024-25 價格預測

As a result, a blend of internal and external factors continues to postpone the onset of altcoin season, which remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s price performance.

因此，內部和外部因素的綜合作用繼續推遲了山寨幣季節的到來，而山寨幣季節仍然與比特幣的價格表現密切相關。

For altcoin season to materialize, Bitcoin would likely need to surpass $80K, a threshold that, given current dynamics, may be challenging to reach by the end of Q4.

為了實現山寨幣季節，比特幣可能需要超過 8 萬美元，考慮到當前的動態，到第四季末可能很難達到這個門檻。